China demographics thread.

[Hendrik_2000]

I just can't understand the idea that China is short of worker. For pete sake China is surrounded by poor countries teeming with worker who more than willing working in China as they make many time more money than in their homeland. China has been generous with their neighbor facilitating easy visa access. streamline and relax border control until recently, easy transmittal of money. Provide minimum labor standard and health care, Free room and board. Free school and board for the young children from the neighboring countries. Here is video of Myanmar worker working in China via Beijing walker

This footage shows Burmese workers going to the dining hall for lunch in a factory in a Chinese border city, For money, they all make a fraction of what Chinese workers make and they work long hours, 12-14 working hours a day, factory bosses like to hire them casuse they are hardworking and never complain, they are very content with the working condition and the money which are already several times better than what they can get in Myamar. China is surrounded by heavily populated low income countries to her south, geographically they are very close to China's manufacturing powerhouse Guangdong province, is it a easy and simply way to alleviate larbor shortage in south China?

 

[solman]

The World Bank, which gets its data from the Chinese government, shows an uptick in fertility from 2017-2019.

The World Bank gets its data from the UN Population division, which publishes detailed information about its data sources, and does not appear to have the data that it would need to make an accurate calculation (Chinese births by age of mother, which can be combined with the number of women at each age to derive a reasonably reliable number)

It would not be surprising if academics with access to more detailed data come up with substantially different numbers that turn out to be more accurate. Given the rather alarmist tone of government officials in many provinces, and the fact that this most recent report comes from inside China, I think the prediction that the population will halve by 2065 should at least be treated as a serious possibility. It is not inconsistent with any data source that I am aware of that has been published directly by China.

At any rate, I believe that World Bank and UN TFR data for China should be treated as nothing more than an estimate because they do not appear to have had access to the data required for precision.

 

[gadgetcool5]

Yeah if China's population halves it will lose 700 million people. The entire population of Myanmar is only 53 million. Heck, the entire population of Southeast Asia is only 650 million people. And obviously nowhere near that is going to immigrate to China. Keep in mind these countries also need their labor force to develop their domestic economies. Furthermore if immigrants assimilate into a Chinese society with a cultural propensity to an ultra-low TFR, then they too will have an ultra-low TFR and China will be right back to where it started in another generation or less. China should not be importing low wage labor anyway, if it is going to accept new permanent residents it should be STEM Ph.Ds or those pursuing STEM Ph.Ds. So stop it with the notion that immigration is going to solve this problem. There is no way around stabilizing the TFR for China.

 

[sinophilia]

Yeah if China's population halves it will lose 700 million people. The entire population of Myanmar is only 53 million. Heck, the entire population of Southeast Asia is only 650 million people. And obviously nowhere near that is going to immigrate to China. Keep in mind these countries also need their labor force to develop their domestic economies. Furthermore if immigrants assimilate into a Chinese society with a cultural propensity to an ultra-low TFR, then they too will have an ultra-low TFR and China will be right back to where it started in another generation or less. China should not be importing low wage labor anyway, if it is going to accept new permanent residents it should be STEM Ph.Ds or those pursuing STEM Ph.Ds. So stop it with the notion that immigration is going to solve this problem. There is no way around stabilizing the TFR for China.

The only way is cultivating a culture where childbirth is good. Right now there is a negative association with anything 'poverty' and having lots of kids in China looks lower class. This is very harmful to society and I hope the opposite is pushed in every way soon.

 

[PeoplesPoster]

The only way is cultivating a culture where childbirth is good. Right now there is a negative association with anything 'poverty' and having lots of kids in China looks lower class. This is very harmful to society and I hope the opposite is pushed in every way soon.

Having lots of kids is a good way to be in poverty. Need to fix that first. Price of housing, education, food, activities are all through the roof. Good luck convincing young couples to take on that kind of debt for some nebulous concept of childbirth culture.

 

[sinophilia]

Having lots of kids is a good way to be in poverty. Need to fix that first. Price of housing, education, food, activities are all through the roof. Good luck convincing young couples to take on that kind of debt for some nebulous concept of childbirth culture.

Agreed, regardless of nation the city culture is always more costly, financially and psychological.

 

[PeoplesPoster]

Agreed, regardless of nation the city culture is always more costly, financially and psychological.

Yep, its not a easy problem to solve and to date I don't think any country has really cracked it beyond replacing population with immigration.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Yep, its not a easy problem to solve and to date I don't think any country has really cracked it beyond replacing population with immigration.

Is.rl solved it with militant xenophobia and the notion that the only way to prevent being demographically overtaken is to outbirth the Arabs.

 

[Overbom]

Right now there is a negative association with anything 'poverty' and having lots of kids in China looks lower class

The association is correct. The more kids you have, the less your material quality of life

Rising kids is too expensive for anyone to think about having 3 or more kids. Currently even 2 kids is expensive.

Unless something radical happens, I dont see this changing anytime soon

 

[FangYuan]

Yep, its not a easy problem to solve and to date I don't think any country has really cracked it beyond replacing population with immigration.

The population problem is a cycle, like a sinusoid, when it goes to the top, the next it goes down. And when it goes to the bottom, it will rise again

For example, Japan is facing the problem of aging population, the death rate is higher than the birth rate. Their population is constantly dwindling. But will it lead to the extinction of the nation? Absolutely not. When it bottoms out, their population will start to grow again,

Bringing immigrants into the country does not solve the fundamental problem. Ultimately, it leads to immigrants replacing natives and after a generation or two they face the same problem as the old natives, they invite more immigrants, and it becomes a death lock

The most logical option is to accept population decline, as a natural process, instead of accepting the replacement of the population with immigrants.

Automation and artificial intelligence are the future.