I'd ask you to stop trolling since you haven't even bothered to source extraordinary claims
China demographics thread.
- Thread starter gadgetcool5
- Start date
That's the facts from the National bureau of statistics of China. You can go and check, and even recount it.
Census data from 2020, that year there were 12 million births and TFR was already at 1.3, in 2023 there were 9 million. Women age 15-49 haven't changed much, just a few million. Almost no difference to TFR.
If you think the TFR stayed the same at 1.7 from 2016(two-child policy bump) to 2023 with births declining from 17.86m to 9m, then who killed dozens of millions of Chinese women age 15-49 (TFR) so TFR would stay the same? This is the fallacy you are talking about. So your extraordinary claims are indeed trolling.
Why I need to provide again and again a source whenever someone cites the western retarded source of 1.7 TFR in China for 2023 or 2024? Sorry, I trust China NBS and not some made-up numbers.
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No, trolling is when you come to a Chinese forum to spew doomsday scenarios.
Again, even the worst anti-China propaganda pieces cites 1.7:
And those numbers were during the pandemic and the covid lockdown.
Sorry, what exactly is the point of this? China will go extinct sooner than West? In fact, just by the raw number of births at 9M China overwhelms the West especially since the half of the 3M births in the US are going to minorities that will completely change its character in another decade.
We all know that development leads to a lower birth rates. It's an effect not a cause.
So what exactly is the point? Don't develop? Spend financial and social capital on forcing women on leaving the workforce and have kids? Stop funding the rapid rise on the technology and spend on welfare to forestall this doomsday in 2100?
What are you people trying to troll here?
Again, even the worst anti-China propaganda pieces cites 1.7:
And those numbers were during the pandemic and the covid lockdown.
Sorry, what exactly is the point of this? China will go extinct sooner than West? In fact, just by the raw number of births at 9M China overwhelms the West especially since the half of the 3M births in the US are going to minorities that will completely change its character in another decade.
We all know that development leads to a lower birth rates. It's an effect not a cause.
So what exactly is the point? Don't develop? Spend financial and social capital on forcing women on leaving the workforce and have kids? Stop funding the rapid rise on the technology and spend on welfare to forestall this doomsday in 2100?
What are you people trying to troll here?
SinoSoldier
Colonel
As mentioned by others earlier, there are two ways to measure TFR: one by the fertile population and another by the total female population.
Using the fertile TFR is fine as long as you compare it to the equivalent statistic of other countries. The problem is that folks are using the fertile TFR rate in juxtaposition to other countries' total TFR.
Using the fertile TFR is fine as long as you compare it to the equivalent statistic of other countries. The problem is that folks are using the fertile TFR rate in juxtaposition to other countries' total TFR.
Fertility rate is commonly reported by dividing by the number of fertile women and not all women.
SK's 0.9 TFR is also according to this method. So idk according to your real™ stat of considering toddlers are fertile women, the SK and Japan TFRs are probably around 0.5, 0.7. And US maybe 1.5(?).
Strange how you pick statistical methods but I'm sure you have no agenda lol
broadsword
Brigadier
Some people genuinely have gaps in their knowledge. Just don't trust the other guy.
Yes and that guys are @Index and @GiantPanda
Here is TFR counted by Birth gauge on twitter according to the same methodology. No big difference from what China NBS is providing.
2023
Japan 1.2
China 1.02
USA 1.62
South Korea 0.72
So again I am telling you to stop trying to argue with China's NBS.
Panda, and one more thing, if you're trying to troll with Yi Fuxian clown guy, provide what he really thinks, he says that China TFR is 0.9
Fertility rate is 1.7 even from anti-Chinese publications. You have a specific agenda in choosing TFR because it is lower to match the Western doomsday shills.
Even in the worst case scenario, China will have 1.3B people by 2050 and a $45-50T GDP, at least three times larger than India or any of the other states with fast growing populations. India itself is showing a rapid trendline to under replacement fertility level by 2050 with a GDP at a faction of China's.
China is far better off than any of the countries with the so-called demographics advantages in the predictable future -- and is best served by increasing its per capita income and climbing up the technological ladder. The doomsday folks need to reach into 2100, basically sci-fi, to get catastrophic predictions.
So what is the point in trying to use this particular methodology besides blowhorning Western "China Collapse" propaganda?
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China’s population woes deepen as marriage registrations tumble
China is on track to post its lowest number of marriage registrations since 1980 this year, with an estimate from a leading demographer suggesting as few as 6 million couples would tie the knot, prompting local governments to hand out cash incentives.In the first nine months of the year, 4.75 million couples registered a marriage, according to the Ministry of Civil Affairs, representing a 16.6 per cent drop compared to the same period in 2023.
Only 1.32 million marriages were registered in the third quarter, with the figure dropping by more than 25 per cent from a year earlier, marking the lowest quarterly reading since 2008.
A 25% drop in marriages in just one year. Although some of that is due to the high base effect in 2023, I still calculate that, smoothing out coronavirus disruptions, China's marriage count has dropped at an average rate of 8.9% each year since 2021. At this rate, the half-life of China's marriage count is about eight years. So in 2029, there would only be half as many marriages as in 2021, and this would be less than three-tenths of the marriages seen in 2013. Since marriage is a predictor of birth, the same can be projected for China's birth rate.
SinoSoldier
Colonel
Wasn't the year of the Dragon a "good" year to get married?
What do you think happened and how does this compare with other countries?
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