SinoSoldier
Colonel
Where did you get these figures? There was a massive drop-off in China's TFR in 2016-2017 and the latest figure is 1.09 as of 2023.
China demographics thread.
- Thread starter gadgetcool5
- Start date
Where did you get these figures? There was a massive drop-off in China's TFR in 2016-2017 and the latest figure is 1.09 as of 2023.
You quoted it. It is not TFR but the historically collect fertility rate of child-bearing women bearing women ages 18-49.
I have no idea how you or whomever quoted TFR came up with that 1.09. They must add young girls and old ladies to the childbearing segment to bring things down from the historically collected averages.
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To be perfectly honest, I have no worries for China when it is pumping this many kids vis-a-vis the West.
I'll take my chances with the Global South having more kids (which has historically been the bane of developing nations) and with the US having half of its births being minority which will completely change the character of that nation and bring about major unforeseen problems.
I'll take my chances with the Global South having more kids (which has historically been the bane of developing nations) and with the US having half of its births being minority which will completely change the character of that nation and bring about major unforeseen problems.
This data is fake, made up estimations without collecting real data. Again someone is citing this crap data, if Chinese TFR was 1.7 in 2024 no one would be talking about demographics collapse in China. 1.7 is higher than current level of USA TFR. In 2023 USA had 3.6m births with a population of 330m and China had 9m with a population of 1.4billion.
Chinese census bureau is providing the real data, in 2020 TFR was
Xinhua article source
Since then the births has fallen by additional few million. The TFR for 2023 is 1.09. You can count it by yourself if you don't believe.
The only ones talking about Chinese demographics collapse is the US and the West.
Chinese would like a higher birth rate but not worth a new cultural revolution to force women out of the workplace or waylaid the country's focus on climbing the tech ladder.
Again, I would take 9M Chinese over 1.7M US whites in a race over demographics. Good luck to India and the Global South. They had the same luck since the 1960s.
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manqiangrexue
Brigadier
Guys, I think there's 2 different ways to calculate TFR, one by total women and one by fertile age women or something like that.
TFR is new way since China's rise. It takes multiple age groups not just the traditional child-bearing age segment which was the historically collected data.
Historical Fertility Rate (not the newer TFR) is for childbearing age females only. Now how they calculate TFR exactly I have no idea but assume they add in different age groups or use a moderation constant.
I think the way it should be is that the vast majority of family structures should be 3rd order births so 3 child families with a significant majority being 2 child families, probably 50% 3 child 30% 2 child 10% one child and 10% 4+. with 80% of couples forming and 90% of those couples having kids you might be able to get tfr to an "acceptable" level at maybe 1.5+. China should focus more on getting families that already have 1 child to have more they will probably need a non insignificant amount to have large families (more than 3) probably 5-6 children to make up for the unmarried or childless
The latest figure as of 2024 seems to be 1.7
Mostly a bunch of bots is arguably nearly "no one".
The thing is there are long term concerns of a slow down, but it's not a mainstream debated issue for a reason. Aside from a few Indian nationalists and US propagandists that are holding onto any threads of extreme copium they can find.
Lmao, stop trolling.
Guangdong which is responsible for 1/9 of China births is only up 1.4% in the first half of a year.
This year births will raise cause of year of dragon, however I doubt it will rise higher than 5% from 2023, so it will be probably no more than 9.5m so TFR of just a bit of higher than 1.1.