China demographics thread.

[Eventine]

If the Chinese government doesn’t socialize child birth in the next five years it’ll likely reach a phase of no return. The pyramid is clearly inverting and once you get into that situation the amount of children a new cohort would need to have to maintain TFR is a multiple of previous generations, which means it just won’t happen and you’ll be stuck with an inverted population for decades.

The Japanification of East Asia will be complete.

 

[Moonscape]

If the Chinese government doesn’t socialize child birth in the next five years it’ll likely reach a phase of no return. The pyramid is clearly inverting and once you get into that situation the amount of children a new cohort would need to have to maintain TFR is a multiple of previous generations, which means it just won’t happen and you’ll be stuck with an inverted population for decades.

The Japanification of East Asia will be complete.

Or just add points to the Gaokao

Only child? +0
2 kids? +5 each
3 kids? +10 each

 

[manqiangrexue]

If the Chinese government doesn’t socialize child birth in the next five years it’ll likely reach a phase of no return. The pyramid is clearly inverting and once you get into that situation the amount of children a new cohort would need to have to maintain TFR is a multiple of previous generations, which means it just won’t happen and you’ll be stuck with an inverted population for decades.

That's just a random and imaginary thing to say. What data says 5 years? What does it mean to socialize childbirth? No matter where things are, using media to develop the culture that childless people are seen as poor and barren to be looked down on will spur the fertility rate. This can be further aided by having fewer people in a large space, seeing the first generation of childless people go through end of life suffering, adn national euphoria from events like overtaking the US or retaking Taiwan island.

The Japanification of East Asia will be complete.

There are so many aspects to Japan that are completely irrelevent and absent in China such as a defeated mentality the comes from losing a hot war then an economic war. Japan is like what it is because it is hopeless and there is no national direction to spur any energy. After the US won WWII, Japan regained vigor thinking it could win economically. When its economy was crumpled by the US for challenging America's, Japan had nowhere left to turn. What was the point? Does it want to challenge China as America's enforcer in Asia? It's too weak for that as well.

Or just add points to the Gaokao

Only child? +0
2 kids? +5 each
3 kids? +10 each

Probably needs to be capped at 30. There are certain qualities that children raised together have that tend to make them stronger than only children so some boost may be fine to account for extra strengths there but we don't need people who are like 60 points below par taking the seats of much smarter kids just because they don't have siblings.

 

[august1]

If the Chinese government doesn’t socialize child birth in the next five years it’ll likely reach a phase of no return. The pyramid is clearly inverting and once you get into that situation the amount of children a new cohort would need to have to maintain TFR is a multiple of previous generations, which means it just won’t happen and you’ll be stuck with an inverted population for decades.

The Japanification of East Asia will be complete.

Nothing's gonna be done. Nada. Our second daughter just turned 2 months old. Everything's been smooth sailing so far, but a single NICU stay could still be completely ruinous for us and most Chinese families, and no cash upfront means cessation of treatment, no exceptions. Having children in modern China just doesn't make any logical sense. Each additional child means a several-fold increase in the chance of ruinous medical expenditure, not to mention all the costs of raising that child and the lost career opportunities that come with it. It still jolts me awake at night sometimes just thinking about the extra risk that I'm putting my family through just to have another child, and there is absolutely zero sign that the government is going to help mitigate that risk.

 

[manqiangrexue]

Nothing's gonna be done. Nada. Our second daughter just turned 2 months old. Everything's been smooth sailing so far, but a single NICU stay could still be completely ruinous for us and most Chinese families, and no cash upfront means ceasation of treatment, no exceptions. Having children in modern China just doesn't make any logical sense. Each additional child means a several-fold increase in the chance of ruinous medical expenditure, not to mention all the costs of raising that child and the lost career opportunities that come with it. It still jolts me awake at night sometimes just thinking about the extra risk that I'm putting my family through just to have another child, and there is absolutely zero sign that the government is going to help mitigate that risk.

Don't you have family health insurance?

 

[august1]

Don't you have family health insurance?

My family has basic health insurance, which has a low reimbursement cap and limited coverage. Imported medicines aren't covered for example. We've purchase private health insurance for my children now that provides much better coverage in the event of major illness but it's not something that most Chinese families have.

 

[chgough34]

Good god, a 12.5% drop. That's utterly awful and an accelerated drop from the first quarter.

There was something that happened in 2015 that caused family formation and childbearing preferences to fall off a cliff and whose effects have clearly compounded dramatically, year after year

 

[Jiang ZeminFanboy]

There was something that happened in 2015 that caused family formation and childbearing preferences to fall off a cliff and whose effects have clearly compounded dramatically, year after year

I bet that's a sudden increase in college attendance and master's degrees. Women when they finish and start a career are already about 30. When they are 30 they maybe want to have a 1 child or zero. Educated young people often put off having children for graduate school, to establish professional careers, travel, etc. A changed mindset of big city urban life.

 

[Eventine]

Fertility is a delayed metric; if 2015 is the cliff you should be looking for a cause 10-20 years earlier. Education & cultural change both. My bet is a combination of education & liberalization during the Jiang & Hu years.

 

[gadgetcool5]

No, the post 2015 drop-off is a worldwide event, it just hit East Asia harder because the dynamics in East Asia were bad to begin with.

Nothing happened in 2015 that dramatically changed world culture. Donald Trump? OK, that's a joke.

In 2007, Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone. If an average age of childbearing is 25, then women who reached childbearing age after 2015 increasingly had access to smartphones during their teenage years.