China demographics thread.

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
It really looks like you've built up an imaginary position that I have over a few lines of text. Now with a little time, I'll rephrase what my disagreement is:
Alright, let's play.
1. Are countries cultural or racial unions?
You seem to believe they are racial unions, as exemplified by your focus on genes and DNA.

I believe they are cultural unions. The DNA differences of a southern Han vs northern Han vs western minority are vastly greater than the difference between Northern Han and Korean/Japanese or Southern Han and the Vietnam. Nations are not organized on genetic basis and except for a brief period of time in Europe (even then it was incredibly fuzzy), have never been organized as such. A racial-based "China" that contains its current population should also contain Siberia, Central Asia, Indochina, Korea, and Japan by definition. Otherwise the intranational population would be more genetically distinct than the international population. The alternative is a balkanized China and I don't think anyone here has that opinion.
Cultural union means neither a West-born Caucasian nor a China-born Central Asian have their de facto, or "spiritual", nationality set at birth. If they accept the culture of another nation, they are spiritually of that nation. Whether they can change their de jure nationality to that spiritual nation is another matter. That leads to the second disagreement.
I think they are both. If the cultural aspect is missing, you have situations like the relationship amongst China, Japan, Korea. All genetically virtually the same, but not on good terms. If the genetic aspect is missing, you have countries like America where there is racial strife, political discord and basically a nation where people dislike/distrust each other. Both components are needed to have a wholesome nation but the genetic component should not be interpreted too strictly. Although there are differences amongst the locales and the ethnic minorities, they are all Asian and close enough for visual similarity and thus total assimilation. However, if you had, for example, a bunch of Swedes in a Chinese community, it literally does not matter that they've been there for 5 generations and speak and write Chinese better than any ABC; people ragard them as something else when they are seen on the streets.
2. People can have a different spiritual and legal nationality. What should the various combinations be considered?

It sounds like you believe:
Same spiritual and legal nationality: Citizen
Different spiritual and legal nationality, accepted by spiritual nation: Traitors
Different spiritual and legal nationality, rejected by spiritual nation: Traitors

My point of view is:
Same spiritual and legal nationality: Citizen
Different spiritual and legal nationality, accepted by spiritual nation: Prospective immigrant
Different spiritual and legal nationality, rejected by spiritual nation: Stateless person, frequently idiots
These don't necessarily conflict. Stateless idiots and immigrants can all be traitors. I'm not sure what this means: "Different spiritual and legal nationality, accepted by spiritual nation". Is this a Chinese American who is accepted by China? If it is, s/he is certainly not a traitor but a loyal citizen who has brought back his/her skills to the mother country.
This difference in opinion leads to a third conclusion/question:

3. Is there any individual agency on national bounds?
Fixating on DNA and race means there is NO agency. It doesn't matter what any person or group does, they will always be of their "ancestor" nation.

I think there is plenty of space of agency. For example, Italians, Irish, and even Germans were never considered American for over a hundred years. It is only through consistent efforts by these groups to move both the existing and their own cultural windows to get accepted into America as "American". Some got concessions from existing group, like the Italians and Irish. Others had to completely get rid of their own culture, like the Germans. Chinese-Americans would fall into the German category. Similarly though Hispanics are currently not considered by many as "true" Americans, I forsee they will also become "Americans" with even greater cultural shift to the existing group than the Italians and Irish due to their population portion and political power.

Historically, this is the norm. Even in China, populations outside of the Central Plains were not considered "Huaxia". Yet, those populations eventually formed a cultural union with the existing "Huaxia", defining a new bound of what was considered Chinese. Like the Italians, Irish, and Germans, each group managed a different amount of cultural change corresponding to their political power in the union.
Other nations were like this too: Rome, Persia, the Caliphates, etc.
Germans, Irish, Italians are all Caucasian so they can easily assimilate into American culture, which is Caucasian dominated. A Chinese or even just an Asian person looks foreign and will be regarded with suspicion in times of strife between the US and China; this fundamental difference sets him apart from Europeans in American society and this difference is dictated by his genes.
IMO all the other things we briefly touched over stem from these differences.
For example: Western nations love to focus on race and DNA, should China do the same?
You think seem to think so.

I think otherwise because it locks China to whatever it is now. It doesn't leave any roam for manuevuring on the geopolitical stage. A cultural-based China allows for expanding China. Korea, Japan, and Vietnam can be considered China and absorbed with a little work. With enough cultural shifting, other nations can also be subsumed. Or if there are aspects of people that nationally undesirable, they can be ejected as un-Chinese behavior. A Han ethnic who supports surrender to America is, therefore, not Chinese whereas a Korean ethnic who supports Chinese (nation) resistance to America can be potentially be a Chinese.
All your examples are other Asians in China or Caucasians in the US, and this supports the importance of genetics. I absolutely agree that China can assimilate all Asian nations because Asian genetics are similar enough to be visually acceptable. This is the expansion possible with a strong leaning on genetics. If, on the other hand, instead of your Korean example, you had some Italian in China advocating for China to nuke NATO, Italy included, he would not be potentially Chinese; he'd just be regarded as a clown. So once again, it ties back to the point that a wholesome nation is both a cultural and a racial union.
A reductive-racial America, for example, would most likely have less national strength and population than Germany + France now. They would have ejected all the blacks to Liberia and never accepted the non-English immigrants. Similarly, if America wasn't an attempt at a cultural union, they would never been able to convert Europe into an American appendage through internet-based cultural assimilation.
America is a cultural union lacking in the racial union department and thus it has serious internal problems but their situation is different from China. If they don't import, their local stock isn't smart enough to get to the top and if they do import, then they face a fractured society. China doesn't have this problem; our local stock is the best in the world and once we get going, we need nothing else.
Edit: I would also add this has already played out historically. Sun Yat-sen, whom I personally regard as an idiot, advocating giving up Dongbei since they were Manchu lands and therefore not "Chinese". Thank god he died before getting any real power. Racial criteria tends to result in reductive nationality which is at odds with national strength.
Yeah, obviously, I don't agree with him. You never give up territory for any reason and the Manchus are East Asian, indistinguishable from the rest of us so why give them up?
 

Staedler

Junior Member
Registered Member
Immigration is very different from conquest, I still don’t see people draw the necessary distinctions. China’s genetic diversity isn’t due to some magical “cultural union”; it’s due to conquest. Initially this was the northern “Han” conquering the south which used to be inhabited by tribes similar to the Vietnamese, the Thais, the Malays, and the Hmongs. In more recent times it was the southern “Han” reconquering the north after the fall of the Qing. The nation was forged by conquerors / nationalists, not the common person who would’ve been okay with anything as seen by the example of the Taiwanese.

Diversity is the price of conquest. It’s not something you wish for in a nation unless you’re a liberal and we know what’s been happening with liberals all over the world - ie losing as their increasingly out of touch immigration policies result in public rebellion. If China wants to trade its present stability for public rebellion then it’s welcome to adopt the same policies. But arguing that the diversity in China was a choice by the public is inane. The public didn’t choose this, it was a consequence of historical conquests, which brings new lands into the nation. Trading homogeneity for territory may be worth it; trading it because your people won’t have kids is the height of stupidity.
You have an bias against the word "cultural union" beyond what the word actually means. Did you not see the section about different groups having different abilities to impact the existing culture? Do you think Romanization, Ottomanization, Sinicization, etc. were all about linking arms and singing Kumbaya?

The conquered, by virtue of population proportion and wealth, exerts pressure on the conquerors. This is hard power at play. This can only be stopped by the conqueror conducting a genocide on the conquered. This can and has happened before, but its rare because of many reasons which are besides the point. The "Turkic" Khaganates conquering India did not turn India into a Turkic culture, just like Mongols and Manchus did not for China. It's only when the conquered have comparatively infinitesimal power that they are completely subsumed by the conquerors.

The Central Plains didn't come up with wet rice cultivation, water buffaloes, nor mythological sword-smiths. In fact, the frequency of sword-centric warriors in stories is mostly attributable to the influence of the southern kingdoms. This is the cultural legacy of the famous sword-smiths of Yue and Wu. The popularity of Jade is attributable to Liangzhu who exported and created the standard of what would be consisted "good" Jade. Liangzhu was on the outskirts of what was consisted the central plains. Do I even need to mention the cultural reverberations of the events leading up to and during the Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms period?


"Cultural union" is a recognition of the balance of power that necessarily plays out whether between villages, towns, cities, provinces which always at some level support some form of separatism, whether it be greater autonomy (the state shouldn't control the cities' law on where to dump my garbage) or actual independence. The goal of a cultural union is not faux-equality of cultures but to actually destroy existing cultures and forge a singular culture. That is centralization, not decentralization. What do you think Qin Shi Huang was doing when he abolished regional identifications like Qin-ren and Chu-ren for the new union of China?

For an more modern example, when Russia became the USSR that was not a cultural union, but a cultural splintering. They literally went to towns and villages to create whole orthographies from scratch to create faux-equality. Most of the SSRs never actually had a distinct culture from "Russian". A similar bad influence was brought to China during this period with the creation of 55 ethniticies which were almost all Huaxia originally. Cultural deunionization creates the breeding ground for separatism.

The US was a cultural union because it actively sought to eliminate beliefs in a cultural identity separate from "American". In fact, the historically recent additive ethnic-qualifiers like "Chinese"-American, "Italian"-American, "Spanish"-American, etc. are all evidence of the unraveling of the American cultural union. Most countries don't succeed in forging that singular cultural identity - Romanization, Ottomanization, French assimilation, etc. were all failures. That the US has historically, and is currently, rejecting Chinese instead of forging it into a unified "American" culture is to their own detriment.


By the way, it is incredibly ironic to talk about the nation being forged by conquerors / nationalists and exclude the common person, when the CPC was literally built on the back of peasants vs the elitist KMT.



Just one thing I want to point out - the irish, germans, etc. etc. were able to become american because they look alike. If they came to China they would have a completely different experience.
Similarly, any east asian can blend into any east asian society without arousing suspicion, whilst moving to a non asian country means you are viewed as a perpetual foreigner. Subsuming racially non-alike nations or cultures is an order of magnitude harder, because people automatically distance those that look different.

Absorbing culturally similar but racially dissimilar peoples will lead to a situation similar to the 'multicultural' scenario in western countries, because different ethnicities will still gravitate together and cause inter-ethnic frictions.
I get your arguments, however they are more theoretical and on ground zero, people will still view through an ethnicity based lens. It's just human nature.
It is only in the aftermath of the unionization that we think of Italian-Americans, etc. as "look-alike".
Historical texts don't agree - they were very much NOT considered look-alike. Spanish/Italians were described as semi-Yellow, almost negroid people. According to genetic bounds, they were distinct too. In fact, if you've spent enough time around Whites, you just as easily tell a Korean/Japanese/Southeast Asian from Chinese as a Northern (British/German) European from a Southern (Spanish/Italian) European.

It's only after the completion of unionization that they are considered "White" in American imagination. Don't forget that when China was strong, the Chinese were described as WHITE, not yellow - yellow was a category invented after the Qing started losing economic and military competitiveness.

We live in the aftermath of things set in motion hundreds of years ago, so it's easy to mistakenly think these transient things are perpetual.
Social constructs like race and ethnicity don't define the world, material conditions do. They are incredibly malleable in the face of hard power.



As long as your conception of China is expansionist and not reductive, I don't have any fundamental disagreements. With your further elaboration, I think any remaining differences are just semantics.

For example, I don't think Swedes in a Chinese community are doomed to forever be outsiders. Many Hui were originally Turkic peoples and are now indistinguishable with any other Huaxia. I think this is just pointless nitpicking though.
 
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Eventine

Junior Member
Registered Member
The US isn’t a cultural union, it’s a multicultural society held together, historically, by the iron fist of white supremacy. Blacks, Asians, native Americans, etc. were not first class citizens in the US, they were slaves / serfs.

The great American experiment of multicultural equality is barely fifty years old and it’s already fraying at the seams. US history is hardly an exemplary success of mixing different groups together. Large scale immigration is facing public rebellion even in the US as seen by the rise of Trump and the far right. The failures of importing other races in The Nation of Immigrants speaks for itself.

As for China, it isn’t an accident that the hardest group to integrate by far has been Uyghurs, who are physically and culturally distinguished the most from Han. Sorry to say it but the idea that Chinese are especially capable of assimilating others very different from themselves is no more than propaganda.
 

tygyg1111

Captain
Registered Member
It is only in the aftermath of the unionization that we think of Italian-Americans, etc. as "look-alike".
Historical texts don't agree - they were very much NOT considered look-alike. Spanish/Italians were described as semi-Yellow, almost negroid people. According to genetic bounds, they were distinct too. In fact, if you've spent enough time around Whites, you just as easily tell a Korean/Japanese/Southeast Asian from Chinese as a Northern (British/German) European from a Southern (Spanish/Italian) European.

It's only after the completion of unionization that they are considered "White" in American imagination. Don't forget that when China was strong, the Chinese were described as WHITE, not yellow - yellow was a category invented after the Qing started losing economic and military competitiveness.

We live in the aftermath of things set in motion hundreds of years ago, so it's easy to mistakenly think these transient things are perpetual.
Social constructs like race and ethnicity don't define the world, material conditions do. They are incredibly malleable in the face of hard power.
Spanish / Italian to northern and western europeans are like Cambodians to Northeast asians. The former are all nominally european, while the latter is nominally all asian. Just branches of the same tree, with cultural similarities to boot.

How long do you think it would take (if possible at all, which I doubt) for China to 'make' africans or arabs into 'Chinese'?
I use a different race in case you've become accustomed to seeing white faces in Asia.

Past a critical mass, people are going to stick together and form their own blocs (aka enclaves). Unless you are importing so few that they are harmlessly scattered across the wider population, where they don't even register a dent, then using propaganda to 'disappear' race is not going to work, because it's telling people to ignore the evidence they're seeing.
 
I believe they are cultural unions. The DNA differences of a southern Han vs northern Han vs western minority are vastly greater than the difference between Northern Han and Korean/Japanese or Southern Han and the Vietnam.
Of course the difference between a western minority and a Han Chinese is going to be much larger than between a Han Chinese and a Korean/Japanese/Vietnamese. But genetic research shows that there is a much smaller degree of genetic difference between Northern Han and Southern Han than with any other ethnicity. Even looking at the extreme cases, the Southern Han population of Guangdong province exhibits significantly lower degree of genetic difference with Northern Han than with Vietnamese.
 

gadgetcool5

Senior Member
Registered Member
The Third Plenum has published the "Resolution of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Further Deepening Reform Comprehensively to Advance Chinese Modernization". It contains the following section on childbirth:

"(46) We will improve the population development strategy in response to population aging and the declining birth rate. A sound system will be instituted to provide full life-cycle population services to all in order to promote high-quality population development. We will refine the policy system and incentive mechanisms for boosting the birth rate and strive to build a childbirth-friendly society.

We will work to bring down the costs of childbirth, parenting, and education, refine parental leave policies, introduce a system of childbirth subsidies, improve basic public services for childbirth and pediatric medical care, and further raise the childcare-related deduction for personal income tax.

We will make greater efforts to develop a public-benefit childcare service system and provide support for employer-run nurseries, community childcare facilities, and home-based childcare.

Based on the general patterns underlying population flows, we will see that public services follow the movement of populations and facilitate the reasonable concentration of people in and their orderly flow between urban and rural areas and different regions."

It sounds great, the issue will be whether and to what extent and at what time this is all implemented.

Source:
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Eventine

Junior Member
Registered Member
It's the usual play book of policies used to limited effectiveness in other countries. It doesn't attack the root of the problem, which remains cultural - people don't have kids because kids are a fundamental cost to personal fulfillment. Unless you change the definition of personal fulfillment, people will never sacrifice their time for kids - and you can never reduce the time cost for kids to 0.
 

Xiongmao

Junior Member
Registered Member
It's the usual play book of policies used to limited effectiveness in other countries. It doesn't attack the root of the problem, which remains cultural - people don't have kids because kids are a fundamental cost to personal fulfillment. Unless you change the definition of personal fulfillment, people will never sacrifice their time for kids - and you can never reduce the time cost for kids to 0.
I don't believe the problem is cultural. China's fertility rate was 2.73 in 1988 and dropped sharply to 1.62 in 1998. I don't believe the basic underlying culture can change so much in one decade.
 

AF-1

Junior Member
Registered Member
I saw article on Serbian media that China gonna shift age for retirement to 70 years!!
(9-9-6) + 70 years of age for retirement = further worsening of fertility rate and potential exodus of workers. Math is very simple. If true, very bad move in opposite direction!!
 
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