It is fortunate that climate models predict a moderate increase in rainfall for northern China as global temperatures rise. This alone won't be enough to solve northern China's water problem, but it will help.
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China demographics thread.
- Thread starter gadgetcool5
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It is fortunate that climate models predict a moderate increase in rainfall for northern China as global temperatures rise. This alone won't be enough to solve northern China's water problem, but it will help.
Wrong thread? The twitter post is about the US, not China.
There is a wide range of solutions China could do and is doing, and this one is an example I accidentally came across, but there are many.
China has 123 million people aged 50 to 54. That's the entire of Japan or Germany and a half. Then what about 55-59 of similar proportion?
Imagine China keeps them working and spending for another 5-10 years nearly ALL. As in the official retirement age of many Western countries.
However, China won't officially make that mandatory - they are creating it by containing pensions instead. It is good to keep them so low, that just means more productive work to actually be done by everyone.
People don't like to be made to do something, but if they see it for themselves it is better to say in the workforce, they are going to do it.
And they could still work quite easily because. China's retirement age was set based on the population's average life expectancy of about 40 in the 1950s, and now it's nearly doubled.
So the life expectancy doubled, whereas the retirement age stayed the same. I think that today many people work longer on their own in China.
So, in the end, Chinese older people could even stay productive for longer, and their retirement burden required from the state isn't that high in the first place due to the culture of people taking care of their own elders and the state social welfare system being much more efficient, for way less money accomplishing much more in general.
So, I don't get how they can actually be a burden to a system in the same way that they are in the Western countries for example, it is obvious that they would have it much worse really.
China has 123 million people aged 50 to 54. That's the entire of Japan or Germany and a half. Then what about 55-59 of similar proportion?
Imagine China keeps them working and spending for another 5-10 years nearly ALL. As in the official retirement age of many Western countries.
However, China won't officially make that mandatory - they are creating it by containing pensions instead. It is good to keep them so low, that just means more productive work to actually be done by everyone.
People don't like to be made to do something, but if they see it for themselves it is better to say in the workforce, they are going to do it.
And they could still work quite easily because. China's retirement age was set based on the population's average life expectancy of about 40 in the 1950s, and now it's nearly doubled.
So the life expectancy doubled, whereas the retirement age stayed the same. I think that today many people work longer on their own in China.
So, in the end, Chinese older people could even stay productive for longer, and their retirement burden required from the state isn't that high in the first place due to the culture of people taking care of their own elders and the state social welfare system being much more efficient, for way less money accomplishing much more in general.
So, I don't get how they can actually be a burden to a system in the same way that they are in the Western countries for example, it is obvious that they would have it much worse really.
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Mongolian hate China. Like... really hate China, to the degree where they'd rather be annexed by Russia. And they consider themselves Central Asians, not East Asians, and many speak Russian as a 2nd language, not Chinese. Realistically they'd move their entire country to Russia if they could, it's Russia that is hesitant to want them.
Vietnamese don't hate Chinese. They may dislike the government but that is abstract. Some nationalists say they do but there's so many looking at Douyin, already learning Chinese even if they never plan to move to China, playing Genshin, etc.
There are only 3.4 million people in Mongolia, so I'm not sure how Mongolian migration will help China's demographics.
It's like believing migration from Singapore can increase China's population. Actually Singapore's population is almost twice that of Mongolia's.
It's like believing migration from Singapore can increase China's population. Actually Singapore's population is almost twice that of Mongolia's.
I follow Mongolian news just as a random hobby. They don't like Russia one bit (talking about 10 years back situation), earlier they preferred Russia over China. It's generation dependent as well.
Young people are much more positive towards China.
Vietnam I agree, Vietnamese is proper part of Sinosphere, and unlike Japan/SoKo doesn't have the superiority complex over China. In fact if I am looking for some Chinese songs or their lyrics, often it is Vietnamese produced Subs that I find on YouTube.
I similarly think North Korea can also help.
(Interesting thing: I found this Youtuber who is Korean but here parents moved to China at young age, and she studied right upto college in China. She literally has a mixed identity, both Korean and Chinese, and her every hashtag is in Mandarin, Korean, and English; which reinforces the fact that for a long time Chinese was a cultural designation. Through out history, just by accepting cultural norms, anyone could become Chinese.)
In terms of ability to assimilate, I will give this order:
Overseas Chinese, especially Malaysian, then Thai etc.
Sinosphere Countries: Vietnam, Koreas, Japan, Mongolia
Yup, ultimately, immigration is not going to solve the issue, specially in terms of cultural acceptability. The birth rates and fertility need to be improved. I have full confidence it can be done, it's just about realizing the enormity of issue and mustering the political will. Many people still give excuses of robotics, biotech, etc. etc. to gloss over the fertility crisis.
Historic shift happening in Northeast China provinces since 2021 .. i have some really interesting information to share..Northeastern China used to be a wasteland until Mao sent pioneers there to open the frontier.
Unfortunately, population growth and youth are concentrated in the south. Not even in economically developed provinces, but the south - there's more youth and lower % elderly in poor Guizhou, Guangxi and Yunnan, as well as rich Guangdong, Fujian and Hainan, than in rich Shanghai, Beijing and Jiangsu.
Henan, regarded as the historical population center of China, has shown population decline for the first time in 62 years.
I do hope that northern provinces can get more population but the lack of water in the area north of the Yellow River is a big, big problem. That is why the north-south water transfer project is going to be of critical importance.
2023 GDP growth
Jilin - 6.3%
Liaoning - 5.3%
Heilongjiang province -
Major businesses in Heilongjiang's high-tech manufacturing sector saw their industrial output grow 20.4 percent year on year in the last quarter, while investment in the high-tech sector rose 51.6 percent year on year.
Heilongjiang Province even broke the trade record in first quarter of 2024. province saw its foreign trade of goods reach RMB 79.7 billion in Q1 of 2024, up 10.3% YoY. Among exports, passenger cars, automatic data processing equipment & its parts.
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Liaoning Province’s total imports and exports of goods in the in 2023 reached staggering 0.77 Trillion yuan ($107.6 billion)..
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Jilin Province posted a robust 7.7-percent year-on-year growth in foreign trade in 2023, with its total import and export value reaching approximately 168 billion yuan (23.8 billion U.S. dollars), local authorities said on Friday.
Of the total, its export value reached 62.7 billion yuan, up 24.9 percent. Among the major exports, the export value of mechanical and electrical products increased by 79.6 percent year on year, while that of its whole vehicles grew by over 170 percent and high-tech products were up over 122 percent, said Lin Mei, head of the provincial statistics bureau, at a press conference.
In 2023, the cross-border e-commerce import and export trade value in Hunchun reached 5.1 billion yuan, a 44 percent growth year-on-year, securing its position as the top land border port in the country for trade with Russia.
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Northeast China was suffering in last 2 decades because of obvious reasons. i remember very well, in 2015 and 2016 this region recorded negative GDP growth. now what suddenly happened that, fortune of this region have completely changed ..
China's shifting from low/medium end to high end manufacturing was the biggest blessing this region has ever received. being the old industrial base NE China still have strong innovation and industrial base..
Automobile
Equipment manufacturing
Aviation
Aero Engine
Green Tech
and recent Boom in semiconductor equipment.. we have now major semi equipment companies located in this region..
and Major national research institutes also located in this region. in last few years, all exploded in high tech innovation .. CIOMP/Harbin institute of Technology and many more..
and Russian-Ukraine War was another major boost for this region.. trade and People to People to exchange with Russia basically hit historic high. i have seen more Russian in HIT in some classes than Chinese these days ..
All High tech companies in this region hired thousands of new talent and grads in last 2years as industry and trade booming. many Young Chinese now moving back to this region. also Russia Far east deeply integrating with this region too..
so basically everything went well for Northeast China in last 2-3 years .. hope this momentum continue. also central government give special attention to this region..