The issue historically has been the amount of Western men who would exploit such a system. China does not need more white male "English teachers" who are actually sexual predators in disguise - you know the type. I don't know how bad it is now, but a decade or two ago, Chinese women were obsessed with mixed race children and this sort of immigration policy becomes an easy loop hole for white men to exploit.
China demographics thread.
- Thread starter gadgetcool5
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When someone claims that you understand their understanding is "AI = chatbot". China's AI development didn't focus on LLMs and even there, China is at most a few months behind. As I once said here. Just look at top performing models for object detection, marketing, resource optimization, etc... All Chinese... In fact, even TikTok's success is because of its RecSys AI's outperforming of American ones.
at some point we have to accept that Chinese women are adults and hold responsibility for their actions.
if they indeed want to bring a charisma-man into the country by a multidecade if not lifetime commitment of marrying and having kids with him, the conclusion isn't that immigration policy has failed, but the education system has. Those that are really this committed to charisma-man will just move out of the country.
I really wouldn't worry about demographics too much. South and south east asia have been in the grips of a massive record beating heatwave and it's miserable, I'm in SEA and I'm sweating it out here. Climate change is real, it has been noticeably getting hotter and hotter every year, and this year people are finally noticing. I think we will see the start of a massive climate crisis and a wave of climate refugees in the future as the heat continues to rise. Even if it's not life threatening, it's a massive drag on quality of life. And I think it's starting to get to the point of being life threatening.
Countries in the higher latitudes will be desired and a popular migration target. So mainly countries like China, Russia, Europe, America, Canada, South Korea, Japan. America, Canada, Japan, SK and Europe will be desired as always, but mass migration is already becoming a lot less popular than it was 10 years ago and there's going to be a hard limit on many people are going to be accepted. Japan and SK are pretty small and can't accept that many people as it is, even if they want to open borders entirely. And people tend to choose the shortest path. People in South America go for America. People in Africa and the middle east go for Europe. People in central Asia go for Russia.
So a lot of people will have no choice but to go for Russia and China . Russia is gonna have a hard time accepting migration with the state of the country as it is and quality of life is worse then most of China now I would say. Most of the affected nation will border China and thus have an easy route into the country, and SEA can most likely integrate pretty well into China anyway.
Which is to say that I think that in a decade or two as it continues to get hotter, there will be a steady stream of people from SEA and south asia that will be desperate to move to China, a very different situation from today. It's up for China's own immigration policy to see if it's willing to accept "mass migration" of this people or just select from the crop of the cream and reject the rest.
Not to mention that if we live in the future where widespread crop failure, famines, droughts and floods are a lot more common, large population aren't as much of an advantage as they are today, where food is plentiful. A.I and automation will pick up some of the slack anway. It's far better for be a economy on a decline, but an nation with frequent famines.
I don't think so. Declining population won't bring economic decline. We are in great transition that robots will disrupt most kind of jobs which will change the economic theory about demographics.
I predicted that there will be a great famines across many global south countries right after the transition.
To be honest, I think this will require a major cultural shift in China. As far as I know, Chinese people in Southeast Asia usually don't marry natives.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
People here don't understand the difference between total population and useful population. Useful population is the lower middle class and above and those with education of course. Total population includes villagers living in dirt floor huts, doing basic farming producing barely what they need to survive (sometimes less), with nothing really taxable. You can have a trillion of those and your country wouldn't be able to challenge anyone. China has a (slightly) declining total population with a rising useful population, so its economy is well on track to continue growing as it always has.
I hope China will never go the route of mass immigration totally unnecessary, targeted immigration of exceptional people should be the aim
What for? China produces more engineers than probably most of the world combined, what talent could the rest of the world offer China.
Imo simply raising retirement age will give China ample time to smooth out the productivity hit with automation. Only concern is that people have enough capital to continue fueling consumption, I would not be surprised if healthcare/aged care rapidly becomes one of the largest economic driver as people age.
You still need people for the demand side of things. China doesn't suffer from this nearly as much as it's population is still massive even it it's slowly declining and the population as a whole is getting richer , so consumption/GDP will still rise at a steady rate for a few more decades. But eventually wealth and the amount of things a people can consume maxes out, so the main way to boost GDP is via population growth, we sort of see this with America already. And of course eventually population decline is gonna hurt in around 50 years if China doesn't boost it's birthrates, right now it's basically a non-issue, but when your average age is in the 50s, it's not a joke.
"Mass immigration" is mostly a policy issue. I think China will have to do so at some point if the country really cannot get birthrates up within the next 20 years. It all depends on the actions that a country takes.
1) Mass immigration really depends on the country's total population. 1000 people moving into a city of 10 million doesn't change shit. 1000 people moving into a village of 10,000 changes the structure of the entire village. Of course Europe/Canada will have issues, moving hundreds of thousands people a year into a tiny country of a few tens of millions is gonna create some waves, no matter what kinds of immigrants they are. Meanwhile, a few hundred thousand people moving to China doesn't change much and they can be scattered over a much wider area.
2) Location also matters. Concrete all your new immigrants into a single location and you tend to get enclaves, gangs, slums. Not good. Spread them out among your population. Easy to do for China, they already have the hukou system. Singapore has a similar system where they assign housing based on race so that you don't get enclaves and echo chambers of only one race dominating a section of the city.
3) Immigration policy is whatever you want it to be, only let females younger then 40, only let in people with a PhD in mandarin studies, let in people as temporary residents and tell them that you're gonna kick them out of the country in 2 years if they don't have a job and house by then, China holds all the cards here. A lot of the issues that Europe is facing is of more of Europe's fault of their immigration policy and the issues between the different EU member states in dealing with their issues than with mass immigration itself.