China demographics thread.

Phead128

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Wfh definitely helps simply because it allows both the man and woman to have enough time and energy to raise children, plan for children or enjoy enough bandwidth to consider how to improve their family. Speaking for myself, days when I have to go into office, I am tired AF when I get back after a commute, and it is boomer-esque for people to expect workers nowadays to return to office (RTO).

This is why I chuckled at Elon Musk wanting to increase birth rates and yet he forced his workers to RTO. I can’t help but detect a level of revenge coming from usually older managers who force their workers to return to office because they themselves never got to enjoy those same perks back in the 80s and 90s.

Also those empty offices downtown due to WFH? Convert the office towers to residential buildings or affordable housing options. More supply, lower costs.

May not be good for the rich landlords, but plentiful affordable housing is a challenge for many and plays a role in family planning. High rent or mortgage and cost of living in general really plays a big role.
 

Chevalier

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I think it's more materially straightforward than that. Rice has a much higher caloric output per unit area than wheat, so east Asia along with India have historically been places of exceptionally high population density. This naturally leads to intense competition and so a very entrenched culture of pressuring children to succeed gradually developed.

Making women have children by state coercion is not what Xi was taking about and you shouldn't take western framing on the matter at face value. If you read Xi's speech in full, the main barriers to greater birth rates that he talks about are things like expensive housing, insufficient postnatal support and care for women, and frequent discrimination by employers towards women with children or who get pregnant after being hired. The implication is obviously that the main reasons women are having fewer children is because of financial pressure and insufficient support at a societal level, not that they personally have become ideologically opposed to childbirth. For the record the same is true for women in the west.
The state coerces people all the time, hat do you think land taxes and VATs are for? To get you working like good little tax cattle otherwise they’ll take away your property which you already paid for, along with the massive amounts of insurance and state taxes you have to pay just to breathe.

At least in China, the state by practice and theory, is meant to serve the people and improve the lives of people, not to function as the arm of the oligarchy as observed in the west.
Also those empty offices downtown due to WFH? Convert the office towers to residential buildings or affordable housing options. More supply, lower costs.

May not be good for the rich landlords, but plentiful affordable housing is a challenge for many and plays a role in family planning. High rent or mortgage and cost of living in general really plays a big role.
More likely the empty offices are due to economic downturn. Most cities and states give tax breaks to companies who enforce RTO because they want people in the city spending their money on coffees, food, drinks and parking fines and transport. Rather than adapting to the new world of wfh, these boomer led companies forced RTO because corporate also functions as their mental health crutch where they can lord over and boss young, nubile office girls around who wouldn’t give them the time of day.
The anglosphere in this respect is such a broken society, the Corporate state has become the new “family unit” for many, primarily corporate women. Naturally, this is not ideal for China nor for any society which wants to survive into the next century.

This girl for instance became viral due to the toxic nature of such a RTO corporate lifestyle
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where are the same girls and boys in her position supposed to find the time, mental bandwidth and energy to create and nurture families? this state of affairs is akin to a death cult.
 

luminary

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There has been a steep decline in
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across the country. Young adults in particular are increasingly likely to delay or forgo marriage altogether, breaking away from the longstanding societal pressure to marry early. While
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in 2005, that number dropped to just 15 percent in 2022, with nearly 50 percent of newlyweds older than 30, compared to less than 20 percent in 2005. The reasons behind this shift are multifaceted, encompassing factors such as changing gender roles, increased educational and career opportunities for women and a desire for personal fulfillment outside the confines of a traditional family structure. As our chart shows, the marriage rate in China dropped to a historic low of 4.8 new marriages per 1,000 people in 2022, down from more than double that a decade earlier.

Accompanying the decline in marriages has been the concerning trend of a falling
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, which also fell to a new low in 2022, resulting in the country’s
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in over 60 years. The choice to remain single or delay marriage often translates into delayed parenthood or even a decision to remain childless. Economic considerations, career aspirations and the high cost of raising children in urban areas further contribute to this decline. The Chinese government's efforts to encourage childbirth, such as the relaxation of the one-child policy, have yet to yield a substantial reversal of the declining birth rate.

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gadgetcool5

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Xi says women should "create a new trend of family" in China​

Xi Jinping this week called on women in the country to "create a new trend of family" to help curb an aging population amid a record drop in the birth rate, according to state media.

What he's saying: "Doing a good job in women's work is not only related to women's own development but also related to the harmony of families and society, as well as national development and progress," Xi said during an event in Beijing on Monday, per state media.

  • "It is necessary to strengthen guidance on young people's perspectives on marriage, childbearing and family," Xi added during the discussion with the leadership of the ruling Chinese Communist Party's All-China Women's Federation, according to Xinhua and other state media.

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tankphobia

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Also those empty offices downtown due to WFH? Convert the office towers to residential buildings or affordable housing options. More supply, lower costs.

May not be good for the rich landlords, but plentiful affordable housing is a challenge for many and plays a role in family planning. High rent or mortgage and cost of living in general really plays a big role.
You'll find high resistance against WFH from the government since it is very detrimental to city centers. All the shopping centers and entertainment situated in Cities catered to office workers will suddenly find itself without its customer base, I've seen a few CBDs suffer this fate becoming ghost towns compared to pre-covid years. By forcing people to travel to the city to work, they're encouraging consumption and spending. A bunch of people sitting at home saving every penny is not really good for the economy.
 

xypher

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You'll find high resistance against WFH from the government since it is very detrimental to city centers. All the shopping centers and entertainment situated in Cities catered to office workers will suddenly find itself without its customer base, I've seen a few CBDs suffer this fate becoming ghost towns compared to pre-covid years. By forcing people to travel to the city to work, they're encouraging consumption and spending. A bunch of people sitting at home saving every penny is not really good for the economy.
On the other hand, WFH can further ease the real estate bubble and create development incentives for the smaller cities which are going to experience an influx of middle class Chinese specialists moving out from expensive cities.
 

Phead128

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Moderator - World Affairs
You'll find high resistance against WFH from the government since it is very detrimental to city centers. All the shopping centers and entertainment situated in Cities catered to office workers will suddenly find itself without its customer base, I've seen a few CBDs suffer this fate becoming ghost towns compared to pre-covid years. By forcing people to travel to the city to work, they're encouraging consumption and spending. A bunch of people sitting at home saving every penny is not really good for the economy.
Counterpoints:
- suburbia shopping centers are thriving.
- downtown parking is limited and costly
- consumption doesn't go to zero when WFH, it shifts to suburbia shopping centers or online.
 

gadgetcool5

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China population: marriages set to end 9-year run of declines in 2023, but demographic issues remain​

In the first nine months of 2023, 5.69 million marriages were registered in China, marking a notable increase of 245,000 compared to the same period last year, according to data released last week by the Ministry of Civil Affairs.

After 2.14 million marriages were recorded in the first three months, the figure stood at over 1.7 million in each subsequent quarter, setting a trend that is expected to push the annual total back above 7 million for the first time since 2021, although uncertainties remain whether the increase can be sustained.

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Signs of stabilization in China's marriage rate this year, although this is likely just a rebound from the artificially suppressed level of 2022 when Zero Covid was in effect.
 
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