China demographics thread.

[mossen]

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China is struggling to reverse its declining births, with some estimates expecting drops of more than 10% this year to below 9 million, as young people remain wary of their economic prospects even after the end of the country's stringent zero-COVID restrictions.
"China's newborns have declined by 40% over the past five years, and the number of births in 2023 will be over 7 million or over 8 million at most," Qiao Jie at Peking University's medical school was quoted as saying in August by Chinese media.
A researcher at YuWa Population Research estimates 8.5 million births.

Only a question of time before first Nigeria and later Pakistan (!) surpasses China in total births. China heading for sub-1 TFR territory and I doubt it will ever go up again. Overeducation is a big problem, as in South Korea. This is also true in the West. No more than 10-15% of the population should go to university. Obession with credentialism is delaying family formation.

But there are also cultural issues at root here. I don't think a few grants will turn this around. The good news is that this demographic time bomb won't hit China until 20 years from now. The world we will live in then will likely be radically different.

 

[Maikeru]

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Only a question of time before first Nigeria and later Pakistan (!) surpasses China in total births. China heading for sub-1 TFR territory and I doubt it will ever go up again. Overeducation is a big problem, as in South Korea. This is also true in the West. No more than 10-15% of the population should go to university. Obession with credentialism is delaying family formation.

But there are also cultural issues at root here. I don't think a few grants will turn this around. The good news is that this demographic time bomb won't hit China until 20 years from now. The world we will live in then will likely be radically different.

This thread makes a plausible argument that births will rebound at least to some extent:

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TL;dr: The big drop off after 2017 coincides with large numbers of young women starting to attend university, temporarily removing them from the breeding pool. After graduating, most will start to have children.

 

[gadgetcool5]

This thread makes a plausible argument that births will rebound at least to some extent:

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TL;dr: The big drop off after 2017 coincides with large numbers of young women starting to attend university, temporarily removing them from the breeding pool. After graduating, most will start to have children.

Thank you. I have been looking for an explanation of China's birth rate collapse that started in 2017 for years, and while this isn't an airtight explanation, it does come the closest to telling a compelling story compared to anything else I've seen. I'm just surprised it hasn't been brought up before.

As far as China's TFR not "ever" going up again, I don't think that is destined to be true, nor is it a good idea to assume that it will be, since fatalism can be a self-fulfilling prophecy. As long as there is a Chinese man and woman left on earth, the birth rate has a chance the recover. It's only a question of the will and collective desire for it to do so.

 

[Maikeru]

As I've said before on this thread, the issue of declining fertility is global, and the cause therefore likely to be at least partly environmental:

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[Maikeru]

A (slightly) more optimistic take on China's demographics:

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[Serb]

I agree with this account 100% on this topic and I'm bullish that it's the path China will follow (you should read them both whole thread chains)

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1733085084927078681

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1694240297969189145

 

[styx]

i think that demographics will not be decisive factor for prosperity and power, if we look at the past 200 years technology has been. China is very well positioned for this

 

[gelgoog]

This is totally retarded. People don't have kids in South Korea because the houses are simply unaffordable and the heavy work environment means you don't have a lot of spare time to take care of kids. Using artificial wombs isn't going to solve any of that.
This is the same problem that China has. The solution is pretty simple. Build social housing and focus more on developing the smaller cities where land prices are lower.

 

[sunnymaxi]

This is totally retarded. People don't have kids in South Korea because the houses are simply unaffordable and the heavy work environment means you don't have a lot of spare time to take care of kids. Using artificial wombs isn't going to solve any of that.
This is the same problem that China has. The solution is pretty simple. Build social housing and focus more on developing the smaller cities where land prices are lower.

agreed.

Korea's situation is very grim. my Korean friend told me, the biggest issue is hyper competitive society which leads to enormous pressure on young people. Korean has highest suicide rate in the world with most depressing society.

another major factor is, Korean society sees Seoul city as their future destination. every single person flocking to Seoul for better future.

see this documentary. eye opener for all of us.

Korea is disappearing except Seoul​

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China alteast have so many small/Tier3/4 cities with Millions of people. recently government destroyed private tuition and property sector.

 

[Moonscape]

China alteast have so many small/Tier3/4 cities with Millions of people. recently government destroyed private tuition and property sector.

Data from the US on TFR for Asians in America is not encouraging.

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Even in the US, with it's relatively much lower cost of housing and educational/career stress compared to Asia, the TFR for Asian Americans is 1.3, compared with a 1.67 average. And the Asian American TFR is probably being pulled upwards by Vietnamese Americans and Filipino Americans, so the TFR for Chinese Americans is probably close to 1. This is in a lower stress, lower cost of living environment with no lingering hangover from the one child policy.

I know many/most people here are probably subscribers to the "humans are material beings and their social world should be understood as material in its actuality" school of thought, and I'm certainly one of them, but there is still a significant role for culture traditions and biases to play in material outcomes.

The Chinese government will actually need to do a lot of societal engineering to raise the TFR. Lowering housing and educational costs won't be near enough.