China demographics thread.

[gelgoog]

China can increase family sizes if they enact the proper policies.
Just look at what the Qin did.

They started cultivating marginal lands.
They accepted migrants that would cultivate these lands.
Once males got into fertile age they they got assigned a plot of land and built their own family unit.
The result was a population explosion which enabled them to unify China.

So it's pretty simple. Just get people an occupation that provides them a decent income and house.
The sooner you do this the better because it will increase the speed of the growth cycle.

Making people have to wait a decade or two before they can own a house is not a good idea.

 

[voyager1]

Just look at what the Qin did.

They started cultivating marginal lands.
They accepted migrants that would cultivate these lands.
Once males got into fertile age they they got assigned a plot of land and built their own family unit.
The result was a population explosion which enabled them to unify China.

Lmao is that true? Genious solution. Reminds me of the Byzantine empire when due to facing multiple small raids on the borders, far away from their stationed armies, they set up a new system where they said everyone can go at the border and have their own land (huge at that time).

The only obligation was that when a raid happened the farmers there would take up weapons and actively resist them (they were actually trained semi-annually to be in good condition)

Obviously this increase population method cant work now, because at that period in China the population was at millions and now it is at billion, and there are now more demands, such as schools, hospitals, electricity, jobs, internet etc

 

[sinophilia]

@sinophilia brought up the case of Israel, which is a good example. But the fertility rate for West Bank is higher than Israeli fertility rate. I'm doubtful if Israeli hike in fertility is purely due to government policies. There are ideological, cultural undercurrents at play here. Most of the Levant, North Africa and Arab world also have high fertility rates. Definitely ideo cultural forces and Israel is no different.

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The Jewish fertility rate is increasing every year, and is now higher than Israeli Arabs, Druze, etc.

Even when removing the Haredi Jews it is still higher. This is in spite of everyone else, Christians, Arabs, Druze, even Black Jews, fertility rate plummeting. Clearly this is government policy and/or social incentive.

 

[sinophilia]

It's mostly this guys.

It's mostly these guys.
View attachment 71445

They pay no taxes, resist serving in the draft, have an issue with where ladies sit on the bus. They spent all their time banging their heads against a book written thousands of years ago and don't contribute much to the modern economy, creating a huge friction with the secular and reformed Jews.

Most Jews and Israelis I know rather they use more contraceptive.

Anyhow, that is the the ideal demographic that you want to be exploding.

Don't make assumptions based entirely on the numbers, you have to know the cultural and historical background of what you are talking about.

Actually no, they have a TFR of over 7. The non-Haredi Jews which I referred to in my comment have a TFR close to 3 excluding them. It has been increasing every year for the last 2 decades which is truly exceptional. See above comment.

 

[Mr T]

So it's pretty simple. Just get people an occupation that provides them a decent income and house.
The sooner you do this the better because it will increase the speed of the growth cycle.

Sure, but who's going to pay for that? There's no margin in State finances to give huge fiscal transfers to every citizen. China can't even afford to pay its public-sector workers a good wage, which is why there's corruption from people trying to top-up their salaries (e.g. doctors over-prescribing and teachers neglecting their work to focus on private tutoring).

This is actually less of a concern in China. Parents in China traditionally take care of their grand kids (especially if they are retired and have free time) and since the implementation of the one-child policy, you've got both the parents and in-laws helping out.

It's unclear whether it will be viable in the future to just rely on grandparents, as attitudes are changing. You have fewer families living under one roof, and people retiring in future years won't know the crippling poverty of the Mao years so may want to spend their retirement enjoying themselves rather than acting as free child care.

 

[nlalyst]

China can increase family sizes if they enact the proper policies.
Just look at what the Qin did.

They started cultivating marginal lands.
They accepted migrants that would cultivate these lands.
Once males got into fertile age they they got assigned a plot of land and built their own family unit.
The result was a population explosion which enabled them to unify China.

So you are in favor of allowing migrants from Middle East and Africa?

Personally, I think blasian babies are quite cute and totally support this. Plus it has the desirable effect of enriching the genetic pool of China. If only more people would hold such a progressive viewpoint the future would be much brighter.

 

[broadsword]

So you are in favor of allowing migrants from Middle East and Africa?

Personally, I think blasian babies are quite cute and totally support this. Plus it has the desirable effect of enriching the genetic pool of China. If only more people would hold such a progressive viewpoint the future would be much brighter.

I don't know about him, but I prefer a more homogenous population. Since you find them cute, welcome them to your USA as she has been doing for donkey years.

 

[voyager1]

I don't know about him, but I prefer a more homogenous population. Since you find them cute, welcome them to your USA as she has been doing for donkey years.

Nothing bad with wanting a homogeneous population but that makes it harder to increase fertility rate organically.

IMO, China should had started it propaganda machine for promoting child births, child care, families at 2010 or even 2000 when some people had recognised the demographics problem that China was facing

 

[nlalyst]

In its early days, China has grown by conquering and/or absorbing non-Chinese people. The great unifiers of China, the Qin, ruled with great success in their state over people who had by and large not yet adopted Chinese civilization. Upon unification, they expanded further into the lands of the hundred Yue, as did the Han that followed them.

Have some faith in Chinese civilization and its ability to absorb new blood, as it has done for millennia.

 

[voyager1]

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China’s population may peak as early as 2022, state media

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, ahead of a once-in-a-decade census survey that’s yet to be published.

The cat is outside of the bag. Thanks Fincancial Times for breaking the story

State media has been forced to report this after that FT article.

Lets see how China's lawmakers will respond