The problem is the conservative government in Poland has been pushing a pretty pro-natalist agenda with swathes of child benefits, and yet it seems to have had no effect on the birth rate (although banning abortion doesn't seem to have helped). At this point I think its pretty clear financial incentives are not the answer, at least, not without bankrupting the state. Its cynical, but in my opinion at this point China should emphasize having 2 children as a national duty and use heavy amounts of propaganda to instill that belief, i.e. hinting to it in movies, in the media, etc. Also, I do think China needs to start encouraging immigration. That's the only thing mitigating the US's population growth problems. Literally look at Japan. The government has made it hard for foreigners to settle there and has no intention of changing that position. Look at the result...crashing birth rates, crippling debt, and yet they're still spending more on child benefits to no avail. It's either we accept a demographic collapse or encourage immigration to push off the problem like the US has done.
Its not just China, either. Population growth across East Asia is cratering. A lot of it can be blamed on work culture (996), cost of living, etc. In South Korea, for example, the work culture is brutal, competition is fierce, and your only purpose in life is to grow up and work for Samsung. Its not wonder they have the highest suicide rates and abysmal birth rates. So I understand why many couples in China are reluctant to have kids, as it would lead them to carry the burdens of two generations—their children and their parents—along with the 996 culture and cost of living. I dont see any easy solutions and I'm quite doubtful that the CCP will suddenly magically resolve all these issues (other East Asian countries seem to have had no progress resolving it), and I think we should all prepare for the worst.
The West's settler colonies are not models for China. A country like the US can support mass immigration because that's how the country was built - 97% of the US literally are immigrants from <300 years ago.
But welcoming mass immigration into your cultural and ethnic home land? Are you serious? That's a recipe for disaster. Why should Chinese give up their ancestral land to foreigners? Americans are/were willing to do so because it wasn't their land to begin with -
they encouraged mass immigration in order to swamp and displace Native Americans and to prevent other European powers from doing the same. It was a deliberate strategy of land annexation that became institutionalized, over time, as an ideology. The whole idea behind America was to found a new country, not advance an existing one.
China? China is already a country, with an ancient history, culture, and territory. It isn't in China's interests to build a new country on its land or to form a new people to replace Chinese. So why would it practice mass immigration? Do not allow American propaganda to confuse you - the purpose of the US pushing mass immigration as a political strategy is to weaken the identity and unity of other nations, because it knows that, contrary to the US, those nations weren't built to be nations of immigrants and so will inevitably struggle to try and become such. We already see in France what happens when you try to copy the Americans.
No, the Japanese have the right idea when it comes to preserving their country's demographic identity. Where they went wrong is in how they approached the problem of getting their people to have children.
In short, the key is the education system. There is a well-known and firmly established association between higher education and low fertility. People push off marriage and children while in school, and the longer they spend in school, the more likely they are to pursue professional development and career advancement over family, because that's what school teaches, and it's human nature to want return on 20+ years of investment.
The most significant change from the medieval period to today is in how many years young people spend in school. The more a culture emphasizes higher education, the lower its fertility. This is why East Asians are among the worst affected. Consequently, the way out of the fertility trap is to reform the education system.
We have a saying, 成家立业. Look at the order, because it's important. 先成家后立业. This is the secret to demographics, and it's what China needs to push for if it wants to avoid the fate of South Korea and Japan. See, modern culture has it all wrong - modern culture encourages education and work for its own sake, but the
historical purpose of education and work is to provide for the
family. The fact that young people aren't starting families before they go into the work force is the reason they are lost, and the reason nations are failing.
