China demographics thread.

[Abominable]

How many of you have kids? They are exhausting. If you don't already have one, you cannot truly comprehend how tiring raising children is.

And unlike everything else, development and rising living standards make raising children harder, not easier.

Most couples, Chinese couples included, still have at least 1 kid. The problem is, after people see how tiring raising one kid is, half stop having kids, and the other half have at most 1 more. For modern parents, subjective marginal returns from having additional children turn very negative very quickly. That's not enough - you need every couple to have at least 2 kids, and some to have 3, to keep the population stable.

The marginal returns from additional children are so negative, that I don't think there's any reasonable inducement any government can offer that can get people to have 2-3 kids/couple on a societal level in a modern developed country. Raising kids in our modern world is just too much work, especially compared to everything else which has been made easier and more comfortable by technology.

I think one idea would be restriction of state funded pensions and benefits. The onus of looking after old people should be with their children and grandchildren, not the state.

It would restore the financial incentive to have children that has existed forever until recently.

It would be difficult to do in an electoral democracy as old people are the biggest voting bloc, but would be easy for China to implement.

 

[Abominable]

No, I don't. I am just against extreme feminist movement. In addition, women need to be more realistic and pragmatic. As many women has fallen to the prey of unrealistic fantasy that propels by extreme groups and NGOs.

Chinese Malaysians are much more educated and wealthy than native Malaysians. Your comparison isn't totally objective. As people getting more wealthy and educated, the birth rate tends to go down even for many conservative and religious societies. You can see that in Saudi Arabian, India and Iran which all are deeply religious societies.

As for Israel, you have a group of religious people that don't work and live on welfare and their sole purpose of lives are reading their Hebrew bible and making babies. Ultra-Orthodox families represent only 13% of the population but each of them have 6.5 children. However, this kind of welfare isn't sustainable and 10 years from now Israel would be forced to cut back welfare as these people would become 1/3 of the population by 2065.

Again, religion has made women into a subservient role which indoctrinated women into having children. Similarly, a more conservative societies have the same effect. So in conclusion, economy plays a major role of women having babies or not as more educated and wealthy women were the less likely they would have children EXCEPT those extremely wealth women that can hire multiple nannies to take care of their children. Conservatism can delay and slow down the decline of birth rate. Conservatism and religious conservatism tend to slow down the decline of birth rate through indoctrination. Although, all modern and wealthy societies, you can't have women that don't work and provide for family.

Furthermore, Native Malaysians have the luxury of support from the more hard working and educated and wealthy Chinese Malaysians. Without, hard working Chinese Malaysians, Malaysia would be much less developed and won't be afforded to allow many Native Malaysians to have so many welfare. Same thing with Israel, in Ultra-Orthodox families, most men don't work which is made possible by the secular Israelis that were forced to pay more tax to support them.

The later part of your post underlies the problem with blaming feminism for the decline in birth rates. Saudi Arabia, Iran and India are all not feminist countries yet have experienced a massive decline in birth rates.

On a similar note someone else mentioned a decline in marriage rates being a cause. Again countries like Saudi Arabia and Iran have very high rates of marriage. People in China, east Asia, the west (and much of the world) are still getting together, they are just not having children.

Btw, secular Israelis are not much more economically productive than the Haredi. The reason the whole country works is because of the massive amounts of aid they receive from America, the EU and the diaspora.

 

[KYli]

The later part of your post underlies the problem with blaming feminism for the decline in birth rates. Saudi Arabia, Iran and India are all not feminist countries yet have experienced a massive decline in birth rates.

On a similar note someone else mentioned a decline in marriage rates being a cause. Again countries like Saudi Arabia and Iran have very high rates of marriage. People in China, east Asia, the west (and much of the world) are still getting together, they are just not having children.

Btw, secular Israelis are not much more economically productive than the Haredi. The reason the whole country works is because of the massive amounts of aid they receive from America, the EU and the diaspora.

Saudi Arabia, Iran and India might not have the same kind of feminist movement but nevertheless all of these countries women status have increased over the years. Women from these countries have over the years become more educated, more independent with many of them working and providing for their families which means women empowerment and increase of women rights which resulted in a decline of birth rates.

Moreover, a decline in birth rates in Saudi Arabia, Iran and India is never the same magnitude of what have happened in East Asia. South Korea has 0.74 TFR which is the world lowest. In addition, the speed of decline in TFR in China is abnormal. Another important fact is that East Asian countries don't tend to have babies until marriage which are different from the West. That is why feminism has caused more problem in East Asia.

Therefore, I would argue feminism does play a role in decline of birth rates in SA, Iran and India. The reason why East Asian nations TFR are worse is due to the fact that East Asian nations are more developed and feminist movement in East Asia tends to be more extreme.

 

[Abominable]

Saudi Arabia - women were banned from driving cars, even working until recently. They are literally Taliban lite.
Iran - not as conservative as Saudi Arabia, but still imposes strong restrictions on women even compared to other Islamic countries.
India - Rape capital of the world. Any woman of a lower caste is fair game. Widow burning and honour killings are still occur. Parents often abort their child if it's female.

Despite this all have dropped below RR. Maybe education of women plays a role in the first two, but how do you explain India? Female literacy rates are among the lowest in the world.

I don't think South Korea or Japan are particularly feminist societies. The men are less masculine, but that doesn't make them feminist.

Western fertility rates aren't better than East Asia. The only reason they are (slightly) higher is because of migration. Immigrants have more children, especially from Africa/ME. If it wasn't for immigrants, fertility rates in western Europe would be the lowest in the world.

 

[KYli]

Indian women literacy rate has increased from 80% from 2010 to 92% in 2021. Understandably, it only means that most young women probably know to read and write in a very basic matter. But it is still a sign of improvement in women rights. Government's effort to give women's access to contraception and family planning also plays a role in the decline of TFR. Below statistics clearly show that urbanization and education of women play an essential role in determination of women having how many children.

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The corresponding decline among women in urban areas was from 2.7 children in 1992-93 to 1.6 children in 2019-21. In all NFHS surveys, irrespective of place of residence, the fertility rate peaks at the age of 20-24, after which it declines steadily.

Another interesting aspect was that the number of children per woman declines with women’s level of schooling. Women with no schooling have an average of 2.8 children, compared with 1.8 children for women with 12 or more years of schooling.


I am not argued that the West TFR isn't falling. But Western fertility rate is still better than East Asia even with not including the immigrants. In the US, White women have 1.57 TFR which is much higher than even Japan not even comparing with South Korea or Taiwan which are the lowest. EU nations also have similarly statistics and better TFR compare with East Asia. I do believe East Asian government would be happy to have 1.5 TFR.

 

[gadgetcool5]

A few points of clarification:

1. Saudi Arabia has a large amount of foreign workers. The birth rate of foreign workers is extremely low; the native birth rate is high:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1663969403300638720

So it is misleading to claim Saudi Arabia's society suffers from a low birth rate is low based on the overall TFR.

2. Israel's birth rate is not driven solely by Haredi / Ultra Orthodox Jews. While it's true they have a huge number of kids, even normal religious Jews have an unusually high birth rate for a country with such a high per capita GDP:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1664677272232824832

Heck, even secular Jews have a replacement birth rate of around 2, which is very high given modern standards.

U.S. aid to Israel is about $4 billion per year (Congressional appropriations) whereas its GDP is about $500 billion per year.

3. India's fertility rate is highly differential. In the relatively secular Kerala in the south, the Hindu TFR has fallen to around 1.2, similar to Japan. Meanwhile Muslims in the north are still well above 2:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522903092810768390

India is just at replacement, but it is held up by certain regions:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1653392089227448321

Compare that to the male-female literacy gap by state:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1624148521078386689

You can draw your own conclusions.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

How many of you have kids? They are exhausting. If you don't already have one, you cannot truly comprehend how tiring raising children is.

And unlike everything else, development and rising living standards make raising children harder, not easier.

Most couples, Chinese couples included, still have at least 1 kid. The problem is, after people see how tiring raising one kid is, half stop having kids, and the other half have at most 1 more. For modern parents, subjective marginal returns from having additional children turn very negative very quickly. That's not enough - you need every couple to have at least 2 kids, and some to have 3, to keep the population stable.

The marginal returns from additional children are so negative, that I don't think there's any reasonable inducement any government can offer that can get people to have 2-3 kids/couple on a societal level in a modern developed country. Raising kids in our modern world is just too much work, especially compared to everything else which has been made easier and more comfortable by technology.

The big thing is that children need to be taken care of, which takes time, yet both parents either need to or want to work, which also takes time.

These 2 times coincide. If work is not work from home, then 1 person cannot be in 2 places at once. It does not work.

 

[KYli]

A few points of clarification:

1. Saudi Arabia has a large amount of foreign workers. The birth rate of foreign workers is extremely low; the native birth rate is high:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1663969403300638720

So it is misleading to claim Saudi Arabia's society suffers from a low birth rate is low based on the overall TFR.

Saudi Arabia TFR was almost 6 in 1990, 4 in 2000, and 3 in 2010. The drastic drop in TFR is steep. To argue otherwise is unjustifiable. At the moment SA TFR is still above replacement rate but for how long.

2. Israel's birth rate is not driven solely by Haredi / Ultra Orthodox Jews. While it's true they have a huge number of kids, even normal religious Jews have an unusually high birth rate for a country with such a high per capita GDP:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1664677272232824832

Heck, even secular Jews have a replacement birth rate of around 2, which is very high given modern standards.

U.S. aid to Israel is about $4 billion per year (Congressional appropriations) whereas its GDP is about $500 billion per year.

Like I said, Israel abnormal high TFR is due to welfare and religion for putting women in subservient role. Haredi and religious Jews are two groups that have very high TFR which correspond with the fact that welfare and men don't work give the TFR a boost.

Other groups such as Arabs have a drop from 9 to less than 3 TFR over the years. As for Christians and secular Jews TFR are near replacement rate, they also receive welfare for having babies and don't underestimate the effect of spillover of religious on the society as many secular Jews are conservative but not religious.

3. India's fertility rate is highly differential. In the relatively secular Kerala in the south, the Hindu TFR has fallen to around 1.2, similar to Japan. Meanwhile Muslims in the north are still well above 2:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522903092810768390

India is just at replacement, but it is held up by certain regions:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1653392089227448321

Compare that to the male-female literacy gap by state:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1624148521078386689

You can draw your own conclusions.

Which just prove my points of education and women empowerment does contribute to lower the TFR.

 

[Michael90]

Or make it easier for city dwellers to buy land in the surrounding countryside. Right now it’s virtually impossible, most you can do is a rental for 20 years, no one’s wants to invest into a temporary home like that.

Wow...really? City dwellers cant buy houses in the countryside in China?
Maybe it explains why many wealthy Chinese like investing their money on buying properties and assets in the West then

 

[Michael90]

The big thing is that children need to be taken care of, which takes time, yet both parents either need to or want to work, which also takes time.

These 2 times coincide. If work is not work from home, then 1 person cannot be in 2 places at once. It does not work.

Very true. I faced the same dilemma with my partner when we gad our first child. However, I come from a large family(5 siblings) and so i know how fun and nice it is to grow up with siblings in a household since i came from such a family, so i wanted at least 3 kids growing up. So i had to insist with my partner for more children after our first born, we had 2 more after and we don't regret it at all. Of course it can be stressful demanding and tough to raise children in this modern materialistic world, but eventually we human beings are able to adapt to any situation , we eventually adjust to any situation, sometimes we humans are more scared of the unknown/change, but when it does happens you will adapt to it. Moreover, as your children grow up you tend to value and enjoy their presence even more. So we wouldn't change that for anything in the world(including my career), Children and family are more important than anything in the world, luckily even my wife now agrees that it was the right choice to make and she always thanks me about that.
The thing with China is that it seems the cureent generation is suffering from growing up in a one child policy household , so they see even less need to have children or at most one, since they themselves grew up in such a family, coupled with all the anti familial values that comes with development , competition and industrialisation you have a perfect recipe for disaster against family unit, to make things worse China is still a developing country unlike Japan and SouthKorea whonstarted facing this issues when they were already developed wealthy countries. I think the one child policy by CCP only fast forwarded andnpushed forward by decades China's issues here . CCP is to blame for this and those responsibile should actully be held to account. There isnt much the current government can do to change this now to be honest. Maybe just wait after a few decades when population fall to a ppint of no return and then stabilises then growth will pick up again. Nature always has its way of self correcting. So no governemnt should be involved in stopping people from having children anymore due to any reason.. Let nature takes it course.