China demographics thread.

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Because with even the most doomest trajection we are still talking about a china with like 800~1000 million citizens in 2100 if I'm not mistaken.

In 2050 China will still be 3.5 times the US, in 2100 China still be around double the US in population numbers. This is without taking in account of black swan events like de-dollarization, growth of global south. What happens with US numbers when global citizens don't want to migrate to the US anymore? Because the dollar went from king dollar to one of the pleb coins. The economics is not worth being seperated from family.

Then you also have to look at the US vassals in the neighborhood of China like south Korea and Japan both are also declining in population numbers and economic might.

China demographic problem will be more of a government budget problem as long as chinese people continue innovating in tech they will be secure.

Not saying they should stop fixing this it's still a problem that needs to be solved.

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US demographics are also declining, they're betting on immigration. But this immigration is declining. Ironically the more they need immigration because they're in trouble, the less they'll get because immigrants aren't attracted to trouble.
 

BlackWindMnt

Captain
Registered Member
Everyone else is laughing while East Asians are self genociding themselves, this isn't something to be proud of even as a Chinese person.
The ones that are doing the "laughing" are in the same situation. It's not like US or EU demographic is doing good. West Asia is not a real threat for China.

For South Asia only India is a potential foe for China, but China has the Himalayas to isolate that threat so it's manageable.
 

Bob Smith

Junior Member
Registered Member
The ones that are doing the "laughing" are in the same situation. It's not like US or EU demographic is doing good. West Asia is not a real threat for China.

For South Asia only India is a potential foe for China, but China has the Himalayas to isolate that threat so it's manageable.
US fertility is around 1.7 which is very good for a country with a per capita GDP of over $70,000. Even the worst EU countries have a higher fertility rate than East Asia. Those aren't the only groups laughing though. Plenty of Muslims, South Americans and Africans are also laughing at East Asia and talking about how they can emigrate there and replace the population when they talk among themselves online.
 

56860

Senior Member
Registered Member
US fertility is around 1.7 which is very good for a country with a per capita GDP of over $70,000. Even the worst EU countries have a higher fertility rate than East Asia. Those aren't the only groups laughing though. Plenty of Muslims, South Americans and Africans are also laughing at East Asia and talking about how they can emigrate there and replace the population when they talk among themselves online.
Now look at fertility rates by ethnicity.

By 2040, anglos will be a minority in the US.
 

montyp165

Senior Member
You want to marry. You need money. You want to raise a family. You need a home. It is as simple as that.

However, managing expectation is also important. Social media and women empowerment have unleashed some unrealistic expectation for many young women. I am talking about many women that do want to marry and raise a family but were brainwashed by Xiaohongshu. It has been a huge problem for the Chinese society but recently has gotten out of hand.

For example, bride dowry in many parts of China has gotten out of hand when women asking for a million yuan or more before marriage is simply wrong and no longer the true intention of bride dowry. Xiaohongshu encourages many women to stay single and claims ugly women can marry wealthy good looking handsome charming guy is just fairy tail but too many women just love to daydreaming.

More evil intention such as encourage girls to prevent their parents from having a second child so they could remain a little princess or even encourage young girls to trigger a miscarriage for their moms. The government needs to take actions to ban such fake women empowerment posters that probably funded by NGOs.
I'd also argue that the ideological aspect of these points is even more of an immediate issue to address above the ongoing birth rate issue, because those who are most heavily demonstrating such behaviors would also be far more easily manipulated by western media and propaganda too.
 

KYli

Brigadier
I'd also argue that the ideological aspect of these points is even more of an immediate issue to address above the ongoing birth rate issue, because those who are most heavily demonstrating such behaviors would also be far more easily manipulated by western media and propaganda too.
The biggest issue is that many of such ideologies are originated in other countries and many activists don't even live in China. At first, I don't think that is an issue. But lately, I think many of those extreme feminists are brainwashing too many young women to become radicalized such as the so called 6B4T movement of not having relationships with men.

It has become a problem for marriage and child bearing. Don't get me wrong. I totally support women to choose to marry or not or to have babies or not. I am against radicalized ideology that is manipulated and brainwashed women with hatred and utopia thinking.
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The deleted Douban channels included groups with links to the so-called "6B4T" movement, a variant of feminism originating from South Korea that urges women to refrain from relationships with men, reject religion and stop buying products such as a corset that are hostile to the female gender.

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Liang, an attorney living in New York, is among more than 20 Chinese feminists and women’s rights groups whose presence has been wiped from social media over the past two weeks.
 

Dark Father

Junior Member
Registered Member
The biggest issue is that many of such ideologies are originated in other countries and many activists don't even live in China. At first, I don't think that is an issue. But lately, I think many of those extreme feminists are brainwashing too many young women to become radicalized such as the so called 6B4T movement of not having relationships with men.

It has become a problem for marriage and child bearing. Don't get me wrong. I totally support women to choose to marry or not or to have babies or not. I am against radicalized ideology that is manipulated and brainwashed women with hatred and utopia thinking.
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The deleted Douban channels included groups with links to the so-called "6B4T" movement, a variant of feminism originating from South Korea that urges women to refrain from relationships with men, reject religion and stop buying products such as a corset that are hostile to the female gender.

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Liang, an attorney living in New York, is among more than 20 Chinese feminists and women’s rights groups whose presence has been wiped from social media over the past two weeks.
That cancer spread from South Korea to China. Pity we cannot seperate that southern half of the pensinula island of the continental landmass and ship it to were they belong to North America. Not only radical feminist movements but also radical christian churches tend to spread from that shit we call South Korea. Those radical feminist whores of 6B4T and other shizzle where the big reason that the US poodle of Yoon won the elections in 2022.

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Eventine

Junior Member
Registered Member
These factors + the fact that China's total dependency ratio (minors+retirees/working age population) is currently extraordinarily low and will remain low for the next ~15 years means that China still has time to grow in a demographically favorable position for quite some time. People forget that taking care of children drains resources in the same way retirees do (if not more so). That said, It is undeniable that based on current trends, a major demographic reckoning will slowly arise in the mid-21st century.
The conflict with the US will likely last longer than ~15 years. If you look at the Cold War, it lasted ~50 years, and there are arguments that it continued even after the fall of the Soviet Union, thus the war with Russia today.

So demographics will certainly be an important factor in the conflict. Right now, TFR favors the US, since US TFR is still 1.66 vs. China's at 1.1. In absolute numbers China will still have more people but the vast majority will be old by 2050, while the US with TFR 1.66 will still have a strong population of young people, perhaps as many as China in 2050.

I don't know, but I'm certainly not comfortable right now with China's demographics going into a long Cold War vs. the US. I'd much rather China had kept its TFR at 1.7 as it was in 2018. Don't know what happened in just five years with the marriage and birth rate collapse. If I had to guess, it is a combination of the lock downs and the high youth unemployment. The government needs to fix the latter as soon as possible.
 
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LKK815

New Member
Registered Member
china's demographic problem is not just due to economic and housing, I feel a lot of members are ignoring the ideological problems associated with this like ultra-feminism. you underestimate how harmful ideology can be. I am convinced that this is a form of spiritual warfare meant to destabilize China from within.

yes, the government should make housing more affordable, reduce working hours and create an environment where people can raise children. but they should also start cracking down on these ultra-feminist NGOs as well.


the party should make an extensive effort to improve society's image of parenthood. support couples who have children and offer them benefits, find people who they can portray in the same light as lei feng, and use them as role models for the public, especially the youth.
(won't really go into much detail for economics as I feel that other members have discussed these a lot of times).

at the same time hunt down this ultra-feminist, shut down those foreign NGOs, and label anyone who supports these extremist groups as unpatriotic. and if that's not enough, you can always go down the CR route and publicly shame/dox the high-ranking members/leaders of such movements as national traitors, throw them in jail, etc. for the rank and file, they can be offered counseling or re-education. if they still refuse to admit their wrongdoings, then the CPC should offer them a one-way ticket to the West. go there and don't come back

and tbh Chinese men should also seek to improve themselves, it takes two hands to clap after all. men should be encouraged split the household chores, and share the workload evenly. and treat your spouse with respect, don't cheat on them, don't beat them. be the men they want/deserve. vice versa for women.


the party has the capability to carry out such activities if they want to, it's just that most likely they deem this situation to not be a priority at the moment. for whatever reason I don't know.

(In addition: weebs in China don't really like ultra-feminists due to the fact they mass report games such as azur lane and other weeb gacha games as "over sexualizing women" and thanks to them the games get censored. so yeah. these mainland China ultra feminists are really nuisances.)
 
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