China demographics thread.

[LawLeadsToPeace]

Well, these are ultimately economic arguments.

In my opinion, the root cause of birth rate decline is the change in social norms. I don't want to echo right-wing punditry by calling it a "breakdown" of traditional social values, but it is certainly a change. Specifically, the formation of family units, i.e. marriage. Here is a

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that's helpful.

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In my opinion, and I want to underline that this is my opinion, not backed by more than a cursory interest in the subject, is that the decline in birth rates is caused by increasingly higher burden of society upon young people. To be a "good" husband, you have to be educated, make a decent salary, be of sufficiently "good character", and a host of other requirements.

All this, while the pre-requisites to accomplish all of those things are rising higher and higher. Now, you have to finish a 4 year college, possibly finish even more education if you want to "guarantee" that high salary through specializations like an M.D, J.D., Ph.D... To say nothing of "life experience" which is hard to accomplish when you are buried neck-deep in studies.

And for the women? Well, it's possibly even worse. Women are expected to choose "good" partners which necessitates being picky. Moreover, women are expected to be attractive, educated, and capable of being to contribute both professionally and domestically through being able to cook, host, and raise children. While educational and professional requirements are most likely lesser than those demanded of potential husbands, the extra requirements outside of those are possibly even greater! And they have to learn and accomplish all of those things while still being relatively young. Unlike men, women have an "expiration date", and I'm sorry if it offends someone, but that's the biological and social reality.

Now sure, plenty of women do get all of those things done, but I hardly fault women who want to live a little and either do not get married or simply do not accomplish everything they "need to"

And that's in United States, I don't know how much worse or better it is in China, but considering the hyper-competitive economic environment there, I can't imagine that the social demands are any lower.

All of this puts off children for years. And very little of it has to do with the direct costs of raising children, in my opinion of course.

Agreed on those points, but I would argue that the costs of earning degrees that can access good jobs and having a great educated background all add to the costs of raising a child since having and raising a successful child requires two people to be in a relationship to begin with. The good character part is more or less a personal thing. Such burdens can be alleciated via active government programs that educate and help the populace while suppressing the nasty materalism that is an unfortunate side effect of a powerful economy. The Chinese are currently working on that and the labor of such programs will take a while to bear fruit.

I don't think you will be able to force people to have kids just off economic incentives. If European countries are having the same issue despite generous pro-natalism policies and a generally high standard of living for the majority of the population, pulling the same levers in China will have the same limited effect.

I mentioned that one should include tax raises for those who don't have kids by a certain age. I haven't seen a single country do that since they most likely fear the backlash from their populace (particularly European ones). Simultaneously, generous pro-natalism policies must be offered in order to alleviate the financial pressure.

 

[Hitomi]

Many "carrot" policies to promote child-bearing but has there been any "stick" policies?

Any feasibility studies into factoring having babies to career advancements?(I personally think it is hard to implement in private corporations but I think it is worth looking into at least)

Has any country tried mandatory education for the youth on the need for having 2 babies minimum?

Raising the age for pension eligibility if they do not have children?

 

[BoraTas]

Many "carrot" policies to promote child-bearing but has there been any "stick" policies?

Any feasibility studies into factoring having babies to career advancements?(I personally think it is hard to implement in private corporations but I think it is worth looking into at least)

Has any country tried mandatory education for the youth on the need for having 2 babies minimum?

Raising the age for pension eligibility if they do not have children?

I don't think you can convince people to take life-changing decisions like having a child with extra taxes on them. What needs to be done making children easy for people who want it and removing cultural influences that disincentivize having a child. Better income equality and lower working hours are important.

 

[OppositeDay]

Many "carrot" policies to promote child-bearing but has there been any "stick" policies?

Any feasibility studies into factoring having babies to career advancements?(I personally think it is hard to implement in private corporations but I think it is worth looking into at least)

Has any country tried mandatory education for the youth on the need for having 2 babies minimum?

Raising the age for pension eligibility if they do not have children?

Currently retirement age for women is five years earlier than that for men. It should be changed so that the baseline retirement age is the same for both gender and only women who have children get to enjoy earlier retirement.

 

[sndef888]

In my country, people who have the most children are those located in small idyllic towns, with quiet lives and landed terrace housing yet decent enough schooling, healthcare, young people and small but lively commercial center. Towns that one would feel comfortable living in until they die.

In China there's a lack of such places. It's mostly either stressful large cities with high rises and noisy shops everywhere or completely dead villages with only old people and no amenities. Once the young people move to the stressful cities living in tiny apartments, nobody wants children anymore.

 

[CMP]

I can't speak to China, but the West has a large number of DINK households. Made up of people who studied very hard and then worked very hard to secure a comfortable life and retirement for themselves, but have no real stake in the future of their society. Mostly professionals, and certainly not in possession of serious generational wealth or a family business to be inherited. It's a logical outcome of an individualistic culture without job security, a social safety net that is looted by our own governments as piggy banks, and upcoming retirement/health care obligations that vastly exceed the ability of our governments to pay for them.

I hope these are all problems that China studies carefully and finds solutions for.

 

[Abominable]

I don't think you can convince people to take life-changing decisions like having a child with extra taxes on them. What needs to be done making children easy for people who want it and removing cultural influences that disincentivize having a child. Better income equality and lower working hours are important.

You know what part of the world has the best income inequality and working conditions? Scandinavia. They also have one of the lowest fertility rates.

The key to make people have children is to "trick" them into doing so. Use religion, patriotism/nationalism, cultural shaming, legal implications, whatever.

Broadly speaking having children makes poor financial sense. Parents are sacrificing their quality of life for the greater good. The reason fertility rates have dropped is because people have realised they can improve their quality of life by having fewer (or no) children. Parents with one child will have more money to spend on themselves compared to those with 4.

That's why cash incentives never work, it'll always be insignificant compared to the overall cost of having a children. Neither will improving wages and the standard of living change much. Left alone people will gravitate towards using their new found wealth to improve their quality of life further over having more children.

 

[Dark Father]

China’s population woes have state organs, demographers calling for drastic societal changes to boost birth rate​

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[Eventine]

You know what part of the world has the best income inequality and working conditions? Scandinavia. They also have one of the lowest fertility rates.

The key to make people have children is to "trick" them into doing so. Use religion, patriotism/nationalism, cultural shaming, legal implications, whatever.

Broadly speaking having children makes poor financial sense. Parents are sacrificing their quality of life for the greater good. The reason fertility rates have dropped is because people have realised they can improve their quality of life by having fewer (or no) children. Parents with one child will have more money to spend on themselves compared to those with 4.

That's why cash incentives never work, it'll always be insignificant compared to the overall cost of having a children. Neither will improving wages and the standard of living change much. Left alone people will gravitate towards using their new found wealth to improve their quality of life further over having more children.

Agreed. Cash incentives don’t work in isolation. The quality of life sacrifices that come with raising children are great enough that only people with strong family values and traditional life styles can commit to doing it. This is one reason East Asians have it so bad - the US by comparison has a lot more religious fundamentalists and rural conservatives who could care less about modern life styles & social mobility.

The way to solve this problem is through cultural change. People must be converted to a different set of values than exists today. East Asia is consumed by obsessions with wealth, material fulfillment, and social class competition, especially among women. Much of this is due to influence from Korea (a “death” culture built around extreme competition), Japan, and the West. This is the root of why fertility rates are terrible. To solve it requires a fundamental restructuring of cultural values which can only happen through a concerted, all of society effort by the education system, popular media, and social media.

The transition will be difficult but the alternative is national decline. Chinese society has the potential for reinvention as seen by the communist revolution. It is now up to the communist party to show that it can do it again.

 

[gadgetcool5]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1660848074422460416

Wow. This is an utter collapse. 35-55% in one year! Births often follow marriage rates. Last year, China had 9.56 million births.

If the number of births drops by 40% in the next year or two, China will have fewer births than Pakistan, which had 6.8 million births last year.