China demographics thread.

[Heliox]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1660848074422460416

Wow. This is an utter collapse. 35-55% in one year! Births often follow marriage rates. Last year, China had 9.56 million births.

If the number of births drops by 40% in the next year or two, China will have fewer births than Pakistan, which had 6.8 million births last year.

Not so fast chicken little. There are lies, there are damned lies and then there's statistics.

Let's have some trend figures for say 2021 or even pre-2019 before we start making wag based on 2 data points. For all we know, 2022 could have been a bumper year and this is just regression to mean.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Agreed. Cash incentives don’t work in isolation. The quality of life sacrifices that come with raising children are great enough that only people with strong family values and traditional life styles can commit to doing it. This is one reason East Asians have it so bad - the US by comparison has a lot more religious fundamentalists and rural conservatives who could care less about modern life styles & social mobility.

The way to solve this problem is through cultural change. People must be converted to a different set of values than exists today. East Asia is consumed by obsessions with wealth, material fulfillment, and social class competition, especially among women. Much of this is due to influence from Korea (a “death” culture built around extreme competition), Japan, and the West. This is the root of why fertility rates are terrible. To solve it requires a fundamental restructuring of cultural values which can only happen through a concerted, all of society effort by the education system, popular media, and social media.

The transition will be difficult but the alternative is national decline. Chinese society has the potential for reinvention as seen by the communist revolution. It is now up to the communist party to show that it can do it again.

Both Japan and Korea are fanatic about competition and economics.

US has religious conservatives but they're the same type that OD on drugs in their dismal small towns with stagnating Cold War era industries. Overall, their fertility has also collapsed. And their libs are caught in expensive global cities where a single closet costs $1500 to rent.

 

[ember]

That scmp article really triggered me. Women think they can live a better life without children? Then force them to have children in order to live a good life.

Going back to my previous suggestion, make university education free for mothers, and let only men and mothers graduate from university. Everyone else can have 'fun' working menial jobs for the rest of their lives.

 

[manqiangrexue]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1660848074422460416

Wow. This is an utter collapse. 35-55% in one year! Births often follow marriage rates. Last year, China had 9.56 million births.

If the number of births drops by 40% in the next year or two, China will have fewer births than Pakistan, which had 6.8 million births last year.

No collapse, just some cherry-picked numbers by CN Wire then extrapolated and exaggerated by you until it looks like China will have less people than Vatican City in XXX years.

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"According to the National Bureau of Statistics and the Ministry of Civil Affairs, the number of marriages is declining but will still remain stable in the next few years, with a major turning point after 2035, Song Jian, a demographer from the Center for Population and Development Studies of the Renmin University of China, told the Global Times on Sunday.

China's population base of marriage-age people will remain stable in the next few years, Song said. Although the rate of young people being unwilling to marry is on the rise, the proportion of people who never marry remains below 10 percent.

"Statistics show that most Chinese people will eventually get married, but they are just putting off marriage," Song said.

Compared with last year, marriage registrations in several places, including Jiangsu, Guangdong, Sichuan and Fujian fell sharply this year, which Song noted may be a result of the COVID-19 epidemic, which obstructed personnel flows and communication over the past two years, but the number on a specific date does not mean an overall decline of people getting married.

Although May 20 this year fell on Saturday, some civil affairs authorities announced to work 48 hours non-stop over the weekend , considering that most couples would like to choose an auspicious date to get married, since May 21, the traditional Chinese solar term Xiaoman (grain buds), was also an auspicious date according to the Chinese lunar calendar.

A staffer from the marriage registration office of the civil affairs department in Rencheng district in Jining noted that the number of couples who got married over the weekend reached 400 as of Sunday afternoon, an obvious increase from 250 on May 20 last year. "

 

[duncanidaho]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1660848074422460416

Wow. This is an utter collapse. 35-55% in one year! Births often follow marriage rates. Last year, China had 9.56 million births.

If the number of births drops by 40% in the next year or two, China will have fewer births than Pakistan, which had 6.8 million births last year.

Do you seriously extrapolate the data of this one special day, May 20th, for the whole year?

 

[Phead128]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1660848074422460416

Wow. This is an utter collapse. 35-55% in one year! Births often follow marriage rates. Last year, China had 9.56 million births.

If the number of births drops by 40% in the next year or two, China will have fewer births than Pakistan, which had 6.8 million births last year.

This is only single day data (May 20th) which is meaningless and 2022 is unusual high marriage rate due to huge backlog during pandemic lockdowns.

This is why normal statisticians look at trends pre-pandemic and post-pandemic to rule outlier years. They don't look at single day data for YoY comparison.

 

[gadgetcool5]

This is only single day data (May 20th) which is meaningless and 2022 is unusual high marriage rate due to huge backlog during pandemic lockdowns.

This is why normal statisticians look at trends pre-pandemic and post-pandemic to rule outlier years. They don't look at single day data for YoY comparison.

Your statement is that 2022 is unusual high marriage rate, but you didn't provide a source to back up the claim.

Other sources say 2022 marriages plunged to record lows. The 2023 decline would merely be a dramatic acceleration of the pace of collapse.

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Based on the latest figures from the Ministry of Civil Affairs, 1.63 million Chinese couples got married in the second quarter of 2022, down by 20% compared with the 2.03 million marriages registered in the same period last year.

At the same time, the total number of marriages registered in the first half of 2022 fell by 10% to 3.7 million, the lowest half-year total since the ministry started publishing quarterly data in 2007.

 

[broadsword]

Your statement is that 2022 is unusual high marriage rate, but you didn't provide a source to back up the claim.

Other sources say 2022 marriages plunged to record lows. The 2023 decline would merely be a dramatic acceleration of the pace of collapse.

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Based on the latest figures from the Ministry of Civil Affairs, 1.63 million Chinese couples got married in the second quarter of 2022, down by 20% compared with the 2.03 million marriages registered in the same period last year.

At the same time, the total number of marriages registered in the first half of 2022 fell by 10% to 3.7 million, the lowest half-year total since the ministry started publishing quarterly data in 2007.

Regardless, it takes time - years or decades - for the population growth measures to show results. They start slow, tweaking and adding stimulus and disincentives as the years go by as they assess the results. So you will continue to see disappointing statistics, but there is no need to melt down every time.

 

[Phead128]

Your statement is that 2022 is unusual high marriage rate, but you didn't provide a source to back up the claim.

Other sources say 2022 marriages plunged to record lows. The 2023 decline would merely be a dramatic acceleration of the pace of collapse.

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Based on the latest figures from the Ministry of Civil Affairs, 1.63 million Chinese couples got married in the second quarter of 2022, down by 20% compared with the 2.03 million marriages registered in the same period last year.

At the same time, the total number of marriages registered in the first half of 2022 fell by 10% to 3.7 million, the lowest half-year total since the ministry started publishing quarterly data in 2007.

2021 is still pandemic. You have to show pre-pandemic vs. post-pandemic to see trends over time.

 

[Jiang ZeminFanboy]

It looks like 2023 births might be below 9m

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