China demographics thread.

[MortyandRick]

Ye

Yeah, good luck with 400 million people by the end of this century . It would be great if china can reach this level immediately and become a developed country. It would solve alot of problems both within china and outside of china.

Lol coming from a country who's large population can't even be fed or nourished properly is laughable at best. So if I were you I'd worry about India better feeling it's children first before putting fingers at others. Dont think India will reach China's current development level even by end of the century.

Also the 400mil I used is the population of the US not the actually population of With Current TFR of china , it's estimated that china will reach around 700-800 mil by end of the century. TFR needs to increase but it will be a gradual process

 

[MortyandRick]

All those responses aren't actually solutions. They've all been brought up in this thread and have been debunked.

Saying "China's birth situation is a problem" is not sinophobic any more than saying "China's affording housing crisis is a problem". It's a valid problem that needs to be addressed.

Of course the statement itself is not sinophobic but not taking into consideration the increase in production capacity and technology is disingenuous at best and at worse is a bit sinophobic. Personally I don't think the effects of technology progression and increase productivity has been debunked fully.

I personally see population as necessary for national health and power up to a certain point, then the effect plateaus and then as it gets larger it becomes a liability. However what their numbers are is anyone's guess.

 

[tankphobia]

Isn't Japan/South Korea basically the blueprint for the future of China demograph wise? In 5 years time median age in China will be SK's, in 10 years time it will be that of Japan, as long as China can rise it's median GDP to that of those nations we can expect a good standard of living for the people to be maintained.

The state can also start offering pro-natal incentives such as cash bonus for children, extended maternity leave, child support benefits and subsidies for childcare. There are many levers that can be pulled to encourage more birth and I don't think China is currently that desperate.

 

[gadgetcool5]

Shenyang in NE China's Liaoning to subsidize $72.9 per month to local families with a third child until 3 years old

The implementation stipulated to strictly implement the provincial regulations on population and family planning including prolonging women’s maternity leave to 158 days from the original 98 days. Meanwhile, fathers will also enjoy 20-day of parental leave.

Couples with children in 3 years and younger can enjoy accumulated a 10-day paid childcare leave each year.

The city of Shenyang in Northeast China’s Liaoning Province will offer subsidies of 500 yuan ($72.9) per month to local families with a third child until the child reaches 3 years old, as part of the city’s latest effort to stimulate population growth.

The city will also roll out a series of housing policies and preferential treatment schemes to families with a second or third child.

The city will also make an all-out effort to develop childcare services to families with children under the age of 3 by supporting kindergartens to provide childcare services to families with children aged 2 or 3.

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Honestly, these are pittance numbers, but its better than nothing.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Keep coping, china tfr of 1.1 will soon teach to south Korea level within a decade. Only south korea tfr is lower than china which also has worst tfr in whole world. You should blame CCP for their one child policy which has not just put forced abortion on married women and even made a norm of 1 child for the whole society.

The big (sole?) problem holding Chinese demographics is back is high social and economic pressure. Reduction of pressure will naturally raise demographics.

 

[MortyandRick]

Keep coping, china tfr of 1.1 will soon teach to south Korea level within a decade. Only south korea tfr is lower than china which also has worst tfr in whole world. You should blame CCP for their one child policy which has not just put forced abortion on married women and even made a norm of 1 child for the whole society.

Please have some data to back that up or are you just talking out of your ass again? It’s not cope when it’s reality. I find it funny that you Jia Hinds like to shit in China when you’re own country haven’t progressed even half as much and got left in the dust by China. Blame that on your government policies that keep all those children malnourished. large population doesn’t mean shit when you can’t take advantage off it in any way, and now with technology and automation, there is no advantage at all. probably why so many scam call centres are in India. can’t make a living the right way so have to scam people. So don’t be so quick to run your mouth cause you guys really can’t back it up.

 

[Biscuits]

Isn't Japan/South Korea basically the blueprint for the future of China demograph wise? In 5 years time median age in China will be SK's, in 10 years time it will be that of Japan, as long as China can rise it's median GDP to that of those nations we can expect a good standard of living for the people to be maintained.

The state can also start offering pro-natal incentives such as cash bonus for children, extended maternity leave, child support benefits and subsidies for childcare. There are many levers that can be pulled to encourage more birth and I don't think China is currently that desperate.

This basically, even with reduced growth, there's no other major economy that is projected to overtake China.

The Post ww2 era where it was common to have 3-5 children is not a blueprint for how it should be permanently.

Growth must be sustainable towards the environment and towards per capita prosperity, and China being an EU sized country is not meant to support much more people than the EU.

Please have some data to back that up or are you just talking out of your ass again? It’s not cope when it’s reality. I find it funny that you Jia Hinds like to shit in China when you’re own country haven’t progressed even half as much and got left in the dust by China. Blame that on your government policies that keep all those children malnourished. large population doesn’t mean shit when you can’t take advantage off it in any way, and now with technology and automation, there is no advantage at all. probably why so many scam call centres are in India. can’t make a living the right way so have to scam people. So don’t be so quick to run your mouth cause you guys really can’t back it up.

Jais only know how to run their jaws about population because they offer nothing to the world except population. Who cares when most of the country is starving, illiterate and lacking in clean water when we replace each child casualty with 3 babies from a family that has no education, no career and no future prospects besides menial labor amirite?

This is the difference between cultures that value lives and cultures that don't.

And needless to say, until the lesson of taking value in your own citizens is learned, the latter remain inefficient, steeped in corruption and mired in brutality.

 

[manqiangrexue]

Keep coping, china tfr of 1.1 will soon teach to south Korea level within a decade. Only south korea tfr is lower than china which also has worst tfr in whole world.

You're the only one coping with low quality Twitter posts from people who think that the 21st century is the same as the 1800 where young people doing physical labor defines the economy. Typically, the most powerful and advanced countries in the world have low TFRs and vice versa. The TFR has an opposite trend to China's rise in power. China was weakest when its TFR was high and its economy, technology, and military are at the highest point they've ever been now. That alone is evidence that China's growth does not depend on a high TFR.

You should blame CCP for their one child policy which has not just put forced abortion on married women and even made a norm of 1 child for the whole society.

No, we laud the CCP for staving off a population crisis when China was too poor to feed all those people and then guiding China to the most astounding rise in human history. Only the west want Chinese people to blame the CCP; they want it so badly but they cannot get it

 

[Abominable]

Isn't Japan/South Korea basically the blueprint for the future of China demograph wise? In 5 years time median age in China will be SK's, in 10 years time it will be that of Japan, as long as China can rise it's median GDP to that of those nations we can expect a good standard of living for the people to be maintained.

The state can also start offering pro-natal incentives such as cash bonus for children, extended maternity leave, child support benefits and subsidies for childcare. There are many levers that can be pulled to encourage more birth and I don't think China is currently that desperate.

You are far off with your dates but, ultimately yes. Without intervention China's demographics will mirror Japan's just like South Korea's is.

Since the 80s Japan has tried all sorts of incentives to try and convince people to have babies, all have failed. Back in the 80s they also fantasied about how robots would replace people. It looks like now they've given up and finally decided to copy the western model which is to import people.

 

[Chilled_k6]

I'll say this about India. It's the Muslim population growing in proportion since they're basically the only religious group with above replacement fertility. With India's political environment that seems like a major powder keg.

Back to China, the births really crashed starting in 2020, which coincides with Covid. Proportion of people in the child-bearing group is declining so we should expect a decline in births, but the ultra low figures have only manifested itself in the past 3 years. Before that, China still had 15-18 million births per year for nearly a couple of decades. The silver lining to this drastic decline is that it has caught the Chinese government's attention. Otherwise we could have experience a boiling frog situation where the govt delays even longer to come up with a response. As for the rapid population aging that's just a fact that China has to deal with due to the very large cohorts born in the 50s and 60s.