China demographics thread.

[tankphobia]

You are far off with your dates but, ultimately yes. Without intervention China's demographics will mirror Japan's just like South Korea's is.

Since the 80s Japan has tried all sorts of incentives to try and convince people to have babies, all have failed. Back in the 80s they also fantasied about how robots would replace people. It looks like now they've given up and finally decided to copy the western model which is to import people.

I think the modern Asian work culture is also non-conductive to having a good family life, somehow China is probably the least extreme of the bunch when compared to SK/Japan, no amount of pro-natal policies are going to incentivise people to have kids if the father is at work 6/7 days 10 hours a day. The mother would have to be a housewife and basically stuck at home babysitting, which severely limits household income with skyrocketing cost of living.

Granted even western European countries are facing the same crisis, so the above would just be one of the factors, not necessarily the only one.

 

[gadgetcool5]

You are far off with your dates but, ultimately yes. Without intervention China's demographics will mirror Japan's just like South Korea's is.

Since the 80s Japan has tried all sorts of incentives to try and convince people to have babies, all have failed. Back in the 80s they also fantasied about how robots would replace people. It looks like now they've given up and finally decided to copy the western model which is to import people.

I don't think they've ever seriously tried policies to incentivize people to have babies. For instance, their latest plan is to create yet another department to study the issue, but no policies have been announced. They are skipping straight to the immigration fix which is a mistake imo.

 

[Eventine]

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I think China needs to think long and hard about why South Korea is going the direction it's going towards, and how to avoid a similar fate. South Korea's fertility rate is basically approaching, if not already at, the stage of no return. Becoming a super aged society - even more so than Japan - is just about certain.

Given the popularity of South Korean entertainment across Asia, there needs to be serious thinking about whether it contributes, too. After all, if the youth are trying to copy the life style of a country with 0.78 fertility rate, that's trouble.

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This is perhaps not too surprising, given the tendency of large cities to suffer from low fertility; but so much for Shanghai locals & their culture, with a 0.7 fertility rate, migrants will be the future of the city.

 

[gadgetcool5]

Chinese provinces give 30 days' paid 'marriage leave' to boost birth rate

Some Chinese provinces are giving young newlyweds 30 days of paid leave in the hope of encouraging marriage and boosting a flagging birth rate, the Communist Party mouthpiece People's Daily Health said on Tuesday.

China's minimum paid marriage leave is three days, but provinces have been able to set their own more generous allowances since February.

The northwestern province of Gansu and the coal-producing province of Shanxi now give 30 days, while Shanghai gives 10 and Sichuan still only three, according to the People's Daily Health.

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[CMP]

That's a great start. Now they just need to throw in some generous paid maternity & paternity leave too.

 

[Serb]

Demographics aren't a problem for China for at least another 10 years in terms of GDP. It's the last straw to catch for delusional westerners.

China has around half a billion people to bring from rural areas into urban ones, educate them more, and make them more productive.

They can increase the retirement age from around 55 years to 65 years just like Japan and South Korea. Though, I don't know if they want.

In this modern world, they could just work on increasing automatization, digitalization, robotization, and artificial intelligence in factories.

Japan at the end of the 20th century experienced similar declines, but then they doubled their GDP with robots and only then stagnated.

And not to mention that it's currently 2023. Chinese are world leaders in AI, I find it hard to believe that they will ever stagnate like others.

 

[tacoburger]

Some crazy ideas.

Allow for gene edited babies. Focus on enhancing health, longevity and intelligence.

Free IVF treatment for all couples. "Encourage" this couples that are using IVF to have twins or triplets, use IVF to select for the healthiest embryos and to encourage them to choose the gender of the baby to be female.

In every city, have a few free community centers run by volunteers and retirees that can act as a daycare and preschool that parents can drop their kids off for a few hours each day.

4 or 3 day workday for couples with kids. Maybe they can have more rest days the more kids that they have.

Let kids have extremely low effort part time jobs with decent pay. Like maybe helping to take care of younger kids in the community center day cares in my earlier point. Or picking up trash etc etc. This is so that they can be "productive" and at the same time, help earn some money for their family.

 

[A potato]

Next up Western media will be saying we gas jews too

They're already accusing China of anti semitism.

 

[gadgetcool5]

China Cracks Down on Costly ‘Bride Price’ Custom to Boost Falling Birth Rate​

In January, central Hebei province started cracking down on what it called “ugly marriage traditions,” which in addition to caili also include crass wedding games. A county in coastal Jiangsu province kicked off a campaign last month to look for “the most beautiful mother-in-law” who doesn’t ask for too much money. A town in Jiangxi made single females sign a letter in February promising not to ask for caili that’s too high, while the provincial capital is holding a mass wedding on International Women’s Day with the slogan: “We want happiness not bride dowries.”

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Finally, they are cracking down on the right thing. IMO, the man's family should not be forced to give a bride price, so long as he is willing to equally share the housework.

 

[tankphobia]

China Cracks Down on Costly ‘Bride Price’ Custom to Boost Falling Birth Rate​

In January, central Hebei province started cracking down on what it called “ugly marriage traditions,” which in addition to caili also include crass wedding games. A county in coastal Jiangsu province kicked off a campaign last month to look for “the most beautiful mother-in-law” who doesn’t ask for too much money. A town in Jiangxi made single females sign a letter in February promising not to ask for caili that’s too high, while the provincial capital is holding a mass wedding on International Women’s Day with the slogan: “We want happiness not bride dowries.”

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Finally, they are cracking down on the right thing. IMO, the man's family should not be forced to give a bride price, so long as he is willing to equally share the housework.

I think it made sense in the days that mostly men worked and women stayed at home as housewives, the wife's family would be losing a source of income and so would demand a dowry as compensation, now women can make their own money and also support their family using their own income, therefore dowry is just a tradition.

However I really don't think this is going to affect birth rates much, since there's no teeth only suggestion and pr campaigns, means nothing in front of cold hard cash and cultural inertia.