China demographics thread.

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
I live in China and I cannot for the life of me think of anything more difficult than convincing Gen Z'ers to have more kids. I can't think of a more anti-natal cultural than what Gen Z Chinese have become. We're talking about a generation that is obsessed with anime, video games, and otaku-derived culture. I remember very vividly that a decade ago, when Gen Z were still little kids and millenials made up the vast majority of independent young people, most of the young adults I saw in the evenings or on the weekends were with romantic partners, whereas nowadays same-sex friendship groups are the norm. When the Chinese government began the one-child policy, their goal was apparently to prevent China's population from ever reaching 1 billion and to maintain a lont-term TFR of 1.0. Looks like they will be achieving their dream soon enough.
When the one child policy was introduced, the culture was to have as many children as possible.

I don't think people need to be forced to have more children, but the financial incentive to not have children ought to be removed. Don't want to have two children? Fine, but then you will have to pay a higher tax rate, work for more years or will be have your prospects of promotion or salary limited.

It may seem draconian, but think of it from a societal point of view. In developed countries, children are the most expensive thing you will ever have. All those years of food, clothes, nappies add up, then there's time off work and when they're old enough college. From a financial point of view a couple who have no children will have a more expensive car, more expensive holidays than one who doesn't.

When they get old and need to be looked after, is it fair that the children of the families pay for the couples who didn't have children?
It is pretty simple really. In the oil rich Muslim countries they give you a house when you marry. Is it that surprising that so many of them get married?

High house prices are a major reason not to get married. And we know how house prices in China are.
Home ownership is higher in China than many western countries.

The problem isn't just financial though, it's a cultural problem. Fertility rates dropped during the time of the USSR as well.
 

Jiang ZeminFanboy

Senior Member
Registered Member
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Faustshadowdancer

New Member
Registered Member
Worth to read the whole thread, you need to go to twitter

This was a wonderful read, thank you! I’ve always wondered what life was like in small cities in the countryside, and this provided some incredible insight.

I've been reading this guy's arguments for a long time, can't deny and can't confirm. However, I am skeptical about it. Some data he includes are interesting, like people enrolling in schools.
If there really were 1.28 billion Chinese and not the 1.41B the consequences for CPC, and China would be devastating.

I’m pretty skeptical about it as well, but if it’s even remotely true, that’s terrifying.
 

MortyandRick

Senior Member
Registered Member
I've been reading this guy's arguments for a long time, can't deny and can't confirm. However, I am skeptical about it. Some data he includes are interesting, like people enrolling in schools.
If there really were 1.28 billion Chinese and not the 1.41B the consequences for CPC, and China would be devastating.

How come he does a lot of talks for bbc and VOA? Is he like a dissident?
 

Bob Smith

Junior Member
Registered Member
I've been reading this guy's arguments for a long time, can't deny and can't confirm. However, I am skeptical about it. Some data he includes are interesting, like people enrolling in schools.
If there really were 1.28 billion Chinese and not the 1.41B the consequences for CPC, and China would be devastating.

He was invited to talk about this problem in China in 2016 and got banned after. The Chinese government is allergic to hearing any bad news about how they're running their country and this is fatal if his stats are true.

I used to think that a dictatorship could command their population to do whatever it wants and China would be able to fix this problem by running 24/7 pro birth propaganda and banning contraception/abortions, After seeing their inability to force vaccinate their elderly population and instead deciding to destroy their economy with lockdowns, I'm not so sure anymore.
 
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