This is just transposing the problems that Western countries are facing right now, and addressing through immigration, to the current circumstances of China while disregarding the fact that developmentally China is still no where close to maxing out productivity gains through urbanization and workforce education levels. The demographics issue is something to look out for, but we are not at the point of enforcing a 2/3 child policy that quite frankly would cause justifitable civil unrest. Forcing someone to have a child versus forcing someone to not have a child is a whole world of difference and I would argue a far more bitter pill to swallow. The only reasons to actually implement such a policy is if China were in a drawn out total war or if the costs of not implementing such a policy would clearly cause huge structural issues in society. Point is there is still time to try out a whole host of other incentive-based/tax-based policies to encourage growth before going to the extreme.
China demographics thread.
- Thread starter gadgetcool5
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This is just transposing the problems that Western countries are facing right now, and addressing through immigration, to the current circumstances of China while disregarding the fact that developmentally China is still no where close to maxing out productivity gains through urbanization and workforce education levels. The demographics issue is something to look out for, but we are not at the point of enforcing a 2/3 child policy that quite frankly would cause justifitable civil unrest. Forcing someone to have a child versus forcing someone to not have a child is a whole world of difference and I would argue a far more bitter pill to swallow. The only reasons to actually implement such a policy is if China were in a drawn out total war or if the costs of not implementing such a policy would clearly cause huge structural issues in society. Point is there is still time to try out a whole host of other incentive-based/tax-based policies to encourage growth before going to the extreme.
To be clear, I'm not opposed to China adopting pro-natalist policies, even coercive policies. What I have a problem with is the constant whining in this thread about the issue. We all know the score, and the Chinese government most certainly knows the score better than any of us or any demographer mouthing off in the media.
We're PLA watchers first and foremost so we should appreciate the wait and see approach. Let's wait and see what happens here instead of posting some variation on the same tired story we all know every week. It's like someone posting "China needs a stealth bomber!" every couple of days in the H-20 thread - yeah, we know.
We're PLA watchers first and foremost so we should appreciate the wait and see approach. Let's wait and see what happens here instead of posting some variation on the same tired story we all know every week. It's like someone posting "China needs a stealth bomber!" every couple of days in the H-20 thread - yeah, we know.
In addition, if any big change regarding demographic policies happen it will be next year after the upcoming Party Congress.
You need serious political capital to start pushing for the kind of policies, whatever these may be, that would significantly affect demographics. So, depending on how the Party Congress goes in Autumn, it will most likely determine how far-reaching these policies will be
You need serious political capital to start pushing for the kind of policies, whatever these may be, that would significantly affect demographics. So, depending on how the Party Congress goes in Autumn, it will most likely determine how far-reaching these policies will be
It'll be unpopular no doubt, so I would dress it with financial support to make it more palatable.
I think it would be a good way to utilise the trillions of dollars sitting idle in American markets. Invest in the future, not the west.
Compared to other countries, China's problem isn't as bad right now. As you said earlier the economic effects are being masked by the massive internal migration that is happening right now.
I do think they will address it with something similar to what I'm proposing at some point.
It will be exacerbated with China because of the historical one child policy.
Forcing someone to have a child will create different problems, and that's not a real solution. The real solution is cultural, easy way is to look at Israel or Muslim countries. It would be best if you changed the mindset of young Chinese people in the cities, especially women. Mine conversation with Chinese women in their twenties, they don't want children at all, and Chinese men are likelier to want.
Someone added a few pages ago an article that the Chinese population might start to fall soon, and it may even happen this year if we look at the keep falling rates of marriages from 2021, and births in recent years.
China TFR and births in recent years. China's 2021 TFR is lower than Japan's.
Someone added a few pages ago an article that the Chinese population might start to fall soon, and it may even happen this year if we look at the keep falling rates of marriages from 2021, and births in recent years.
China TFR and births in recent years. China's 2021 TFR is lower than Japan's.
| Total population | Births | Deaths | Natural Change | Official TFR (Yi Fuxian says its lower but I need to do more research on his claims) | |
| 2015 | 1,374,620,000 | 16,550,000 | 9,750,000 | 6,800,000 | 1.41 |
| 2016 | 1,387,790,000 | 18,830,000 | 9,770,000 | 9,060,000 | 1.77 |
| 2017 | 1,396,215,000 | 17,650,000 | 9,860,000 | 7,790,000 | 1.58 |
| 2018 | 1,402,760,000 | 15,230,000 | 9,930,000 | 5,300,000 | 1.49 |
| 2019 | 1,407,745,000 | 14,650,000 | 9,980,000 | 4,670,000 | 1.47 |
| 2020 | 1,411,780,000 | 12,020,000 | 9,970,000 | 2,050,000 | 1.30 |
| 2021 | 1,412,360,000 | 10,620,000 | 10,140,000 | 480,000 | 1.15 |
I agree with culture being a solution, but what changed the culture and attitude of the women and male in China over the years? I think it has a lot to do with socio-economic factors, like housing, wages and career. They'll need to combine propaganda and material changes to create a pro-fertility environment.
Also welcome back to the forum!
I live in China and I cannot for the life of me think of anything more difficult than convincing Gen Z'ers to have more kids. I can't think of a more anti-natal cultural than what Gen Z Chinese have become. We're talking about a generation that is obsessed with anime, video games, and otaku-derived culture. I remember very vividly that a decade ago, when Gen Z were still little kids and millenials made up the vast majority of independent young people, most of the young adults I saw in the evenings or on the weekends were with romantic partners, whereas nowadays same-sex friendship groups are the norm. When the Chinese government began the one-child policy, their goal was apparently to prevent China's population from ever reaching 1 billion and to maintain a lont-term TFR of 1.0. Looks like they will be achieving their dream soon enough.
I can't think of anything easier. Culture is infinitely malleable and arbitrary, and the young are especially susceptible to it. You can make young people do anything if you package the message correctly. The Chinese government is uniquely positioned to influence culture through censoring pathological ideas and promoting healthy ones. They haven't used this very skillfully to date but I'm sure that will change.
Source?
How exactly will they do that and with what money? We're talking a complete reshaping of the most anti-natal culture in the modern world where the TFR in many entire provinces is less than 1. You're asking for another once-in-human-history miracle. Just as a side note, a decade and a bit ago there was also a huge nation-wide drive to ban smoking in indoor areas. A decade later they've almost completely given up on that and people are smoking in restaurants and bars like there's no tomorrow.
With the ¥115 trillion GDP money, that's what money. How exactly? With technology, duh. The beautiful thing about real-time AI based content grading and management systems is that you don't have to know shit about how anything works, you just have to have the data. The Party most definitely has the data. And it isn't anything new, this content selection and propagation is exactly how TikTok/Douyin work - the Party could just summon ByteDance executives to a room and tell them that they'll be using this technology to improve China's content management systems which, I'm sorry to say, are rather rudimentary at present.
That's the first step. Other social media networks will have to be dragooned into the cause, as will film and television studios. The Chinese cultural industries will pivot to a producing content that promotes pro-natal values. It will take time, there's no waving a magic wand and solving this overnight. Incidentally, if we take your claim seriously that China is the most anti-natal country in the world, that was a result of decades of previous government policy. Different government policy will change that culture, and much more efficiently than before.
No, just for pro-natal goals to be added to the Party's KPI. The miracles will follow.
So?