China can and will achieve total air superiority over Taiwan

M

mobydog

Junior Member
bd popeye said:
USworldpolice sez;


What squadron and wing where you assigned with? Where were you stationed in the Gulf region & stateside?

Forum members>>> We have discovered that USworldpolice is a "poser" a "fake"' a "Phoney". In fact a three time banned loser.... Warning to others..do not claim to be something you are not. And if you are banned KEEP OUT!!!

bd popeye moderator
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Though I don't really liked his Handle.. and don't know the circumstances of being labelled as a three time poser.

But his post is consistant nonetheless, He said he didn't took part in the GWI, which could be true, since he claimed that he only took part in the no-fly zone service (which killed quite a few thousand iraq kids)... but what do I know..

I'm speaking out because I was banned incorrectly before for spamming.... and I see no malice from his post.
 
crobato

crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
Do the pilots in PLAAF had an equivalent of Red Flag/ Green Flag program?
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Yes they do. They have DACT, an Aggressor program and a Blue Flag/Red Flag program.
 
Gollevainen

Gollevainen

Colonel
VIP Professional
Registered Member
USworldpolice was banned becouse he is the USalltheway, Americanaholic...ect...He's phoney allrigth. That kid has spammed us for a while now and he is turning into something more annoying than the all migthty vinclee himself. And mobydog, your banning was not intentional, mainly due the odd IP conditions of Singapore that have been couse of similar proplems in the past and I belive Webmaster of this forum has already apoligized for this. So it would be great deal to us that You let the moderators do their work and If you have complains, comments or something else on your mind, use PM

Thank you
 
Z

zraver

Junior Member
VIP Professional
I think the best the ROCAF can really hope for if it comes to war is to use dispersal tactics so they can attrit the PLAAF. But with the PLAAF aquiring modern battle management even dispersal is probalby a no-go. The PLAAF is just to big and well funded.

ROC's biggest weapon is the PRC's economy. 1- It is creating a liberal educated society that has demanded and won many freedoms reducing the differnaces between a RoC and PRC citizens lifestyle and standard of living, and personal freedoms. 2- The PRC's economy is tied to the US market and the US is legally bound to defend Taiwan in case of attack (RoC/PRC war tanks the PRC economy) 3- the PRC and RoC both know that the two will merge just as soon as both sides see it as the best couse ie- after the freedoms, standards or living, and costs equalize between the two.
 
crobato

crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
Let's not bring economic issues. I'm sure everyone knows about this already. We just want to discuss A **hypothetical** scenario without economic factors or US involvement. Kind of like wargaming but in discussion.
 
G

green beret

New Member
Ok here is a possible scenario:

-PLA launches missiles targeting the ROC's army bases, airbases and navalbases. The ROC missile defense system responses and destroys some of the missiles, but some made it through and damages the ROC's airbases. Though some of the ROC fighters managed to take off, more were grounded due to damage to the airbase infrastructures.

-immediately after the missile barrage PLAAF fighters and bombers took off. And a battle between the PLAAF and ROC air force and air defense began. The target of the PLAAF would obviously be bridges, roads and the ROC airbases. Both sides took tremendous casualties, the majority of the ROC airforce along with the majority of the PLAAF were destroyed.

-At this point the PLA ground invasion of Taiwan began. At this point without outside support Taiwan is doomed. Though I suspect the PLA will sustain extremely heavy casualty during the landing, but the on rush of PLA forces will eventually break the ROC defense, and from this point PLA forces will pour into the gaps.


The PLA dont really need air superiority like we do, as i suspect. They just need their AF to knock out the ROCAF, so they will not longer be a threat to the invasion fleet and their ground forces.
 
crobato

crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
-immediately after the missile barrage PLAAF fighters and bombers took off. And a battle between the PLAAF and ROC air force and air defense began. The target of the PLAAF would obviously be bridges, roads and the ROC airbases. Both sides took tremendous casualties, the majority of the ROC airforce along with the majority of the PLAAF were destroyed.
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They don't need to wait in their bases.

The PLAAF fighters and bombers may already be in the air, just waiting or loitering or even on the way at the moment the first SSMs hit the bases. So if an airbase is just fresh from being damaged by an SSM, the PLAAF strike force may already be there to deliver crippling blows to the airbase just minutes later.

This presents another problem for the ROCAF before the missile strikes, they would know that the PLAAF is out in force from the large numbers of aircraft taking off, thanks to their intelligence and their early warning radar. They would get their fighters out of the shelters into the ground, ready to take off in the runaways. Then wham, missile hits.

Whatever is in the air will have problems finding a place to land later. He can risk landing in a damaged runaway, losing the plane, or he may be forced to ditch. Either way, lost plane. If you land on another airbase, like the Mirage 2000-5 landing on a base full of F-16s, that airbase may not have the logistics to support that plane type, and again, a new set of problems as you may not have the missiles to arm it and the crew to tend to it. It is a big mistake for the ROCAF to have three different fighters and that's going to bite them big logistically.
 
Z

zraver

Junior Member
VIP Professional
One reason the RoC hates the missiles is they are already in place, they can be committed to battle with very little warning. Not true with the PLAAF. if they start pulling out warshots and going through extended training and maintence cylces as well as begining forward deployments suprise is lost.

If the PLAAF starts making serious moves at readiness the humint you mentioned earlier will tip the ROCAF off and they can begin dispersal.

China's best bet is to suprise with missiels and then race the ROCAF into the air. Afte rall they wont have dead and wounde dpersonel, destroyed facilities and cratered runways.
 
C

cabbageman

New Member
US no doubt have the upper hand in Electronic Warfare compare to China, because US EW equipments are combat proven and US has been the leader for a long time. My assessment of PLAAF and ROCAF EW capability is that each one has some advantages in different areas.

Assessment of EW isn't completely hopeless, even if we are restricted by public sources. The information however is a bit more obscure, and many of which are not available on Internet.

The cruise missile vs. aircraft debate depends on enemy defense. If aircrafts' potential attrition rate is very high, then cruise missile is justified. For Taiwan, choice between upgrades on aircraft and R&D on CM isn't easy. It is "certain" (but limited) tactical effectiveness versus "potential" (but large) operational and strategic effects.

Based on the new information, LS-6:
- Cost approximately 4~5 times of JDAM
- GBU-32 class
- CEP comparable to early version of JDAM
- Range 60 km at height of 11000 m
- No hard target penetration capability yet
- GPS system could be replaced by Beidou or GLONASS, but CEP unknown for other systems
- ECM / Anti-Jamming capability unknown
- Targeting options unknown

Still incomplete, but it’s slightly easier for estimation now. I’m guessing PLAAF would not purchase a large quantity until GPS alternative is in place and the cost/performance improve a little more. Perhaps LRIP for operational testing and training? (Of course, if PLA directive is to exploit the 2008~2015 window, mass production is possible)
 
tphuang

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
cabbageman said:
US no doubt have the upper hand in Electronic Warfare compare to China, because US EW equipments are combat proven and US has been the leader for a long time. My assessment of PLAAF and ROCAF EW capability is that each one has some advantages in different areas.

Assessment of EW isn't completely hopeless, even if we are restricted by public sources. The information however is a bit more obscure, and many of which are not available on Internet.

The cruise missile vs. aircraft debate depends on enemy defense. If aircrafts' potential attrition rate is very high, then cruise missile is justified. For Taiwan, choice between upgrades on aircraft and R&D on CM isn't easy. It is "certain" (but limited) tactical effectiveness versus "potential" (but large) operational and strategic effects.

Based on the new information, LS-6:
- Cost approximately 4~5 times of JDAM
- GBU-32 class
- CEP comparable to early version of JDAM
- Range 60 km at height of 11000 m
- No hard target penetration capability yet
- GPS system could be replaced by Beidou or GLONASS, but CEP unknown for other systems
- ECM / Anti-Jamming capability unknown
- Targeting options unknown

Still incomplete, but it’s slightly easier for estimation now. I’m guessing PLAAF would not purchase a large quantity until GPS alternative is in place and the cost/performance improve a little more. Perhaps LRIP for operational testing and training? (Of course, if PLA directive is to exploit the 2008~2015 window, mass production is possible)
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hmm, I'm wondeirng where you got the 4-5 times more expensive, I didn't read it anywhere in that article at all. All I read is that the bomb is extremely cheap and has really good cost/performance ratio.

This article is a nice one on the launch of Beidou, you can get an idea on what China is aiming for from this.
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