China can and will achieve total air superiority over Taiwan

crobato said:

A carrier group is likely to stay east of Taiwan, where the island would form an immense natural barrier with its mountain tops that makes it difficult for an attack with low flying aircraft. The SAM defenses on the island would add to the defensive position of the carrier. It would be difficult for the PLAN to "access" the carrier without a twin pincer movement one north and one south of Taiwan.

My tip for people to play potential wargames is to use Google Earth. You can easily find the main Taiwan airbases and their relation to the geography there using GE's 3D terrain feature. You can come to your own conclusion about their securities and vulnerabilities there.

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bud, just a few weeks ago a full U.S carrier group ran the gauntlet through the Taiwan straits...WEST of Taiwan. The U.S plays this stupid game with china all the time WEST of Taiwan. shuts down all radar...uses satellite radar data link and runs fast with allot of super hornets dominating the area. This run is done at night mostly

Yes they did it but the carrier group wants a fast track to Japan given the stormy waters. You're not going to launch Super Hornets in that weather. Right about that time a Philippine trawler capsized due to the stormy weather, Chinese actually did the rescue assistance.

There is too much commercial air traffic west of the straits in a normal situation to have Hornets buzzing around, and you can't be completely radio and radar quiet if you have planes flying about either.

I think if the US does not get involved, then PLAAF can theoretically defeat the ROCAF, though with heavy losses on both sides. If the USAF and USN get involved and fight on ROCAF side, then it's a different story, and I would say PLAAF would lose, unfortunately.

utelore said:

bud, just a few weeks ago a full U.S carrier group ran the gauntlet through the Taiwan straits...WEST of Taiwan. The U.S plays this stupid game with china all the time WEST of Taiwan. shuts down all radar...uses satellite radar data link and runs fast with allot of super hornets dominating the area. This run is done at night mostly

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I have to credit Jeff Head for this idea but it is true....

Any carrier task force could hug close enough to the Taiwanese coast to gain additional support from the islands own shore missile defenses. Even if the Chinese were to send in early waves with their least modern fighters to force the US/Taiwan to expend much of their anti missile stocks on outdated systems... the fact that vast socks of anti missile and anti fighter reloads are likely pre-positioned on the island is a thorn in the side of the chi-comms war planners.(a carrier fleet huging the shore could be re-supplyed with ease if it stayed near Taiwans east shore) In other words any linghty battle for the Taiwan straits could reduce the worlds first largest air force to a much smaller size in a matter of days or weeks.

Remember that the key factor for the Chi-comms is clearing out the vast amount of encapsulated MK-48 (or better) mines the US/Taiwan can deploy in ridiculous quantity along the straits and to a lesser extent near the beaches. Any Mainland attempted landing on the western or northern shores of Taiwan would need to be swept quite intensely by Chinese mine sweeping assets (assets that would be a priority target for US/Taiwan anti ship and helicopter missiles). In short the Chinese would have to deal decisively with Taiwans air-force and all US reenforcement BEFORE they could even begin clearing the mines out of the straight, before the first troop transport could feel safe going anywhere near Taiwan. (To say nothing of mines that are pre-positioned in sleep mode long before hostilities arise)

Additional combat questions??

Another big question is weather or not Taiwan can deploy ultra long range artillery pieces on any good rail ways that might exist (to avoid counter battery fire from shore/missile and ships). I also presume that the stealth bomber can be used as an anti ship platform if its properly armed with anti ship missiles and could thus function as a SSGN but in the sky instead of under water) Perhaps the best Wild-card of this whole debate is weather or not the United States would redeply the Air-born Lazer system enabled jumbo jets for the duty of shooting down Chinese IRBM assets just after they leave the launchers. (I do wonder how many ABL equiped heavies the US has atm however----anybody know?)

Its US smart missiles and mines vs Chinese numbers and the advantage that the aggressor has in any conflict. The results are by no means clear. (other then the fact that it would be very expensive with a very high death toll on both sides even when you (quite safely)assume that the Politburo is more willing and able to accept very high casualty rates in its naval and air force then an open society such as Taiwan or the US would be willing to accept) Even when cultural considerations are taken into account the cost is most definitely too high even for the Red Chinese to take as lightly enough to commit to without some sort of decisive "ace in the hole" or the assurance that the United States would be unable or unwilling to get involved rapidly enough to change the outcome.

You seem to have an awful lot of imagination, failing to account that the Chinese not only have numbers, but now, even precision guided munitions that can be fired at long range, in fact, while the planes are still over the mainland coast. The PLAAF is now heavily equipped with EW on many of their planes, and one particular development even has a laser attached to the ECM pod. The PLAAF also has SEAD/DEAD aircraft, with ARM missiles that will home in against enemy radar. They are supported by their dedicated AWACS, C3I, and EW aircraft, along with specially designed aircraft that can do long range search of sea targets, then guide ship launched long range AshMs to them well beyond the surface radar horizon.

With the advent of active guided fire and forget BVRAAM on the PLAAF side, the PLAAF can in fact, deal with the ROCAF on a one to one basis (no need for numerical superiority) and without SSMs targeting the bases, and still even win. Utelore described it right, both sides would be throwing so much missiles, they would be knocking themselves off the sky, not to mention plenty of fratricide and mutual destruction (both planes killing each other).

And there are drones and UCAVs to deal with too, like remote controlled J-6s laden with bombs, being used as bomb carriers or kamekaze.

Another is that the PLA has significant long range SAM assets that they can deploy right off the coast and these missiles can cover all the way to East Coast of Taiwan. Since the PLAN now has AAW vessels with long range radar and rapid fire VLS, that again are major threats that can nail ROCAF aircraft right off as they launch.

Go to Google Earth and check where the ROCAF bases lie. A number of the major ones are close to the west coast of the island, making them vulnerable to being disrupted and even taken over by amphibious landings, or hit by MLRS units on the mainland coast, straits islands or even from ships (the PLAN has converted old destroyers to fire MLRS).

The problem of the ROCAF is that it is meant to fight a PLA circa 2000, but failed to anticipate many of the PLAAF advances since then, along with a rapid transformation to a highly much more technological force by 2010.

hows pilots compare to both sides? i think KMT pilots had better training from the americans.

PLAAF pilot training are strictly confidential when it comes to the elite pilots, so we just cannot assume that ROCAF pilots are better trained because of American assistance. One can presume they might be or not, but we cannot say they are. J-10/11 pilots can surely defend themselves outright from ROCAF pilots, but not to sure about J-7/8 pilots.

Its not a good idea for a carrier to be sitting near a coast, moving along a very limited corridor. That's going to be bait for submarines and it negates the carrier's best advantage which is its speed. You're also going to have problems with FACs that would try to sneak up along the coast. By the time you identify small ships heading towards you as not being trawlers and yachts, its already too late.

A CVF will be along the east side of Taiwan and you can expect it not to close to the coast but rather moving along a wide stretch of sea at high speed. That patrol pattern would make it very difficult for SSKs and FACs to sneak up.

I'm with Crobato on this one. No sane commander would bring a carrier into the straights during war time. Carriers might be amazing ships, but you'd be playing to all the PLAs strengths, and accentuating all of a carrier's weaknesses. It would be suicide.

The constrained area means that subs can be pre-positioned to wait for you as you leave the straights. Since the subs wouldn't have to move at all, they would be very quiet. And anti-sub operations would be difficult in such an environment regardless.

The proximity to the mainland means that every single PLA aircraft is in range to strike at the carrier. No need for airborne refueling, just land at a base along the way.

Operating close to land means that the carrier can't establish a decent defensive perimeter. Crobato already mentioned FACS, but also fighter/bombers would be difficult to identify if they're flying low over friendly territory in a heavy EW environment. An Su-30MKK can pop-out from the mainland and have the carrier in missile range within 3 minutes.

Finally, the carrier is automatically in range of anti-ship cruise missiles. An 052C can start firing on the carrier without even leaving its harbor. It would benefit from the same resupply facilities as you imagine for the carrier. In fact you might even be able to launch the missiles from trucks on the land - they have the range, it just depends on whether or not the PLA prepared for this possibility and equipped the trucks appropriately.

The bottom line is that this would never happen. The carrier can operate perfectly well from a little further away.

... Ami.