China can and will achieve total air superiority over Taiwan

1.JDAM has decreased to ~US$23,000 in 2006 values.

2.The early JDAMs had a max range of 15nm, or nearly 30km.

3.The 13m CEP for the early JDAM was the program requirement. JDAM demonstrated 10.1m CEP at that time, beating its requirement. For that matter, it had a 30m non-GPS aided CEP requirement, but the furthest the JDAM dropped from its target in an non-GPS guided engagement was 20m. (not enough tests were done to statistically assess the CEP of unaided engagements with enough accuracy)

4. It is far more probable that the US$70~80k quoted for the LS-6 is for domestic purchase cost, and I'm sure that many here would agree with me on that.

I don't think that is production cost. If you babelfish that particular line this is how it is translated.

Director: Like the single bomb, what type can the selling price arrive the level?

Expert: Probably is 7, 80,000 US dollars. You if solely from compare said is quite expensive, but a weapon, can fly the such far distance, has the such big might, from this point said is the quite low cost.


主持人：像单颗炸弹，售价能够到什么样的水平？

专家：大概是7、8万美元。你如果单单从比较上来说是比较贵的，但是一个武器，能飞这么远的距离，有这么大的威力，从这一点来说是比较低成本的。还有一个关键点，它这个滑得远了以后，飞机受损失小，这样飞行员生存能力也高，作战的时候，心理因素也好一些，老是跑到高空往下扔炸弹，太害怕。地对空导弹，还有高炮都受影响。

Furthermore the statements preceding that, goes like this when translated.

Director: Like the thunder stone such equipment, knows according to you, how does its system solve the antijamming?

Expert: With GPS with the dubhe combination, some receives like this disturbs, other also in, such can do, if is empties with the rank, with other, the precision can bad somewhat, but generally speaking, this weapon is belongs to one kind in the quite low cost to be able to achieve a long-range value, the market prospect is quite good.


In other words, he mentioned market prospect being good and the interviewer asked him about the selling price.

That is not production cost as anyone can see, that's selling export price.

add to what Crobato said, Chinese weapon developers NEVER quote the domestic price. Everything they give a export pricing. That's why we only know about the pricing of JF-17, K-8 and JL-8, but have no idea about J-10's cost or J-11 cost. I believe what plaaf pays is the production cost + 10%.

To give an example, the pricing of JF-17 has been listed as 15-20 million for export orders, but on Chinese forums, the pricing discussed for domestic versions were mentionned to be less than 10 million each.

if the US sels the JSOW or JDAM and some F-35's to the RoC the picture changes, if the the RoC can safeguard the F-35's intially they would gain the ability to possibly rip the PLAAF to shreds on the ground without much warning

zraver said:

if the US sels the JSOW or JDAM and some F-35's to the RoC the picture changes, if the the RoC can safeguard the F-35's intially they would gain the ability to possibly rip the PLAAF to shreds on the ground without much warning

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by the time RoC can actually get F-35, China would have its own stealth fighter. I'm serious.

tphuang said:

by the time RoC can actually get F-35, China would have its own stealth fighter. I'm serious.

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I'm not so sure. There's no reason why the US would refuse to sell the F-35 to Taiwan throughout the whole of the next decade under any and all circumstances. After all it wouldn't want to see the ROCAF become hopelessly outclassed by the PLAAF, unless it had decided not to help Taiwan - in which case it wouldn't sell the F-35 ever. Also sales would help reduce the overall cost of production if there were problems in having more countries buy the planes and/or keep the production lines open.

It's quite a way away in the future, and anything could happen. But I don't think you can make blanket statements like that.

FuManChu said:

I'm not so sure. There's no reason why the US would refuse to sell the F-35 to Taiwan throughout the whole of the next decade under any and all circumstances. After all it wouldn't want to see the ROCAF become hopelessly outclassed by the PLAAF, unless it had decided not to help Taiwan - in which case it wouldn't sell the F-35 ever. Also sales would help reduce the overall cost of production if there were problems in having more countries buy the planes and/or keep the production lines open.

It's quite a way away in the future, and anything could happen. But I don't think you can make blanket statements like that.

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here we go again, F-35A hasn't even had its first flight yet. Let's just say it has it sometimes in the next 12 months, then the first flight will happen approximately 10 years after F-22's first flight. Let's say it gets inducted into USAF faster than Raptor's timeline and slightly slower than that of F-16. You are looking at 2011-2012 as the time F-35A getting inducted.

So, after that, the Brits, Australians and Canadians will be the first to get it. And then you have the JSF partners and NATO nations and non-nato major allies like South Korea and Japan. Taiwan will be lucky to get it before 2020.

You can look at the F-16 induction for clues. 1974 first flight, 1992 finally got approved for export to Taiwan. And then the first delivery didn't come until after that.

tphuang said:

here we go again, F-35A hasn't even had its first flight yet. Let's just say it has it sometimes in the next 12 months, then the first flight will happen approximately 10 years after F-22's first flight. Let's say it gets inducted into USAF faster than Raptor's timeline and slightly slower than that of F-16. You are looking at 2011-2012 as the time F-35A getting inducted.

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Why will it certainly adhere to that timetable? huang, you're refusing to accept that things might not work out as you think they will. All I have done is say that making blanket statements about what will be the situation in over a decade's time is not a good idea.

You can look at the F-16 induction for clues. 1974 first flight, 1992 finally got approved for export to Taiwan. And then the first delivery didn't come until after that.

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Yes, and you've refused to factor in any of the other variables - such as the fact that in that period there wasn't so much concern about China establishing the sort of military capability where it could invade and take control of Taiwan faster than the US could intervene. Now that China is moving forward, its technology is becoming a lot more credible. The US won't have the luxury of deciding to export arms to Taiwan at such a slow pace if it wants to ensure it can hold out.

More importantly you haven't justified why China will certainly have a useful "stealth fighter" that it will be able to deploy in large enough numbers next decade. It's still very much a work-in-progress - no one can safely say what capabilities the new jet will have, let alone when it will be operational.

FuManChu said:

Why will it certainly adhere to that timetable? huang, if you're that good at predicting the future maybe you could tell me who will win the 2.30 at Haydock tomorrow - I'd like to make a little money. Of course if you're just speculating, why not say the timeline will be like that of the F-16?

Yes, and you've refused to factor in any of the other variables - such as the fact that in that period there wasn't so much concern about China establishing the sort of military capability where it could invade and take control of Taiwan faster than the US could intervene. Now that China is moving forward, its technology is becoming a lot more credible. The US won't have the luxury of deciding to export arms to Taiwan at such a slow pace if it wants to ensure it can hold out.

More importantly you haven't justified why China will certainly have a "stealth fighter" that it will be able to deploy in large enough numbers next decade. It's still very much a work-in-progress - no one can safely say what capabilities the new jet will have, let alone when it will be operational.

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you sound a little too desperate right now.

I'm simply using historical timetable to do my estimations. If you say that the political factor is a little different and that it will take than 20 years from the time that F-35 first fly to the time that Taiwan will get an operational squadron of F-35 like what happened with F-16. (note: operational squadron comes a few years after the deal gets signed) That's believable. But you were insisting that Taiwan can somehow get F-35 all through next decade when F-35A hasn't even flied yet. Do you honestly believe that Taiwan will get F-35 before ABAC and other JSF partners? If you choose to ignore F-22's induction pace, we can look at other modern fighters like Rafale and Eurofighter typhoon.

I think everyone realises that Taiwan is not going to be settled by a Military Solution. The PRC is now firmly embedded in the Technological world which means the ROC will enevitably lose any theoretical conflict. All sides know this, which is why Tiawan is not prepared to commit to the historic sales deals it has already provisionally agreed.

China has determined to develop the capabilities to sanitise areas it wishes to control. Currently these areas are close and will not extend far from its borders, certainly it cannot boast the global reach of the USA. It is however a serious mistake to believe that because China has not developed US style global reach, that somehow their capabilities are deficient. They are not, they are very effective in relation to the objectives that they have set. Thus within a predetermined Total Exclusion zone China will achieve and maintain Total Air Superiority and therefore Marine and Ground Superiority as well and do this irrespective of who the adversary may be.

In time the range of China's capabilites will extend and will become global as it passes the various Geopolitical tipping points of the 21st Century. In the meantime it keeps itself close and inviolate.