China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[ZeEa5KPul]

Aren't these civilian reactors monitored by the IAEA and thus can't contribute their fissile material towards China's nuclear arms stockpile?

IAEA inspections apply only to non-nuclear weapons states. China is an acknowledged nuclear weapons state under the NPT and any monitoring it submits to is entirely voluntary. It can "national security" any nuclear installation and the IAEA will never see it again.

Furthermore, these PWRs are lousy for weapons grade fissile material because they use LEU and the plutonium they produce as waste is contaminated with isotopes that make it unsuitable for weapons. This monitoring/not monitoring issue applies to fast reactors like the CFR-600 coming online this year.

 

[Biscuits]

Like the now dead Republican contender Herman Cain who idiotically and emphatically declared that America under his leadership would do"everything in his power should he be elected president in 2016" to prevent the Chinese from getting an atomic bomb.Stupidity and ignorance at the highest level-what can one expected from the masses of America??

I mean, in the spirit of "exact word" proposals sometimes used to scam people in the American legal system, Herman Cain only promised that he would do "everything in his power to prevent the Chinese from getting an atomic bomb" I.e. 1 single atomic bomb, among the thousands already in storage/readiness.

Could Cain convince China to build even a single bomb less than planned, he has legally done what he said he would do.

 

[Michaelsinodef]

I mean, in the spirit of "exact word" proposals sometimes used to scam people in the American legal system, Herman Cain only promised that he would do "everything in his power to prevent the Chinese from getting an atomic bomb" I.e. 1 single atomic bomb, among the thousands already in storage/readiness.

Could Cain convince China to build even a single bomb less than planned, he has legally done what he said he would do.

Yes, that is actually technically correct, and likely something he would do if he was elected.

What's even more funny and laughable, would be the fact that even if he were elected, there's like nearly no way he would actually get China to announce nuclear stock or the likes, so the idea that he could even prevent China from getting an atomic bomb would also really not be possible lol.

 

[zbb]

I mean, in the spirit of "exact word" proposals sometimes used to scam people in the American legal system, Herman Cain only promised that he would do "everything in his power to prevent the Chinese from getting an atomic bomb" I.e. 1 single atomic bomb, among the thousands already in storage/readiness.

Could Cain convince China to build even a single bomb less than planned, he has legally done what he said he would do.

That reminds me of the American Red Cross donation campaign to build homes for survivors of the 2010 Haiti earthquake. The campaign was a smashing success and raised $500M in donations.

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[Kalec]

Nuclear industry is auctioning bids for equipment needed for Stage 3 spent fuel reprocessing plant.

Well here is the tricky part. Stage 2 bidding was considered to be the second 200 MT/year reprocessing plant back in 2020 as proof. Then what exactly is the Stage 3 reprocessing plant here?

It existed a 800 MT/year reprocessing plant plan with help from France's Orano but it was never finalized as everyone knew it. The original plan is two 200MT plants with one 800MT plant in 2010s, so at the first glance the "Stage 3" reprocessing plant should have been the 800MT plant if China and France reached agreement on siting issue.

Got absolutely no idea what it means but here it goes if anyone is interested.

 

[gelgoog]

I think the only option for reprocessing and equipment would be Russia.

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[Kalec]

I think the only option for reprocessing and equipment would be Russia.

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Not likely though. I suspect it could be another 200Mt/year reprocessing plant given that it would be built at the proximity of the previous two plants. If it was a foreign design, it would have been built somewhere else for security reason. Or even more optimistically a domestic 800Mt/yr reprocessing plant.

Nuclear industry is auctioning bids for equipment needed for Stage 3 spent fuel reprocessing plant.

The 3rd stage seems to be much more significant than I thought when I found it out.

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The suspected 3rd plant is bidding for concrete & ground ventilation filter, saying that concrete should be delivered within 60 months a.k.a 5 years, potentially differing the 3rd plant with existing 2nd plant. It could mean that the 3rd plant indeed exists instead of a subordinate project of two 200Mt/year plant.

Interestingly, the bidding was labeled as "military auctioning" on the website of Hunan civilian-military fusion platform. Though it is not decisive enough to determine that China is going to use it for military purposes.

Assuming three 200Mt/yr plants operating by 2030 or an later date, China could produce around 4.5t RgPu annually by using these reprocessing plants at 75% capacity factor, namely 1,000 warheads annually if using RgPu by lowering yield-weight ratio.

 

[Kalec]

 

[Kalec]

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Alright mystery solved. It is the 3rd 200Mt/year reprocessing plant, according to an interview with the board secretary from a participating company in 09/2022.

2)乏燃料处理: 去年1.29亿收购了中核嘉华，原中核集团404厂第五分厂，是国内乏燃料处理生产线的示范供应商。中 国第一条50吨生产线，9大类设备，嘉华覆盖6大类，但因为产能、人员受限，目前承接订单和收入规 模都偏小。 甘肃嘉峪关，中核技术产业园，未来5年总投资4000-5000亿，乏燃料处理是一部分，目前规划有3个 项目: R1项目，200吨，总投资400亿，前后建设了5年时间。R2项目，正在建设中，也是200吨，预计建设 周期3年左右。
R3项目，明年启动，也是200吨，预计2-3年建成。 单个项目，200吨，400亿投资，嘉华能够覆盖的设备至少能占到40-50亿的设备市场规模。 3)订单情况:
R1+R2，承接订单加起来也就5个亿左右。 收购过来以后，重点放在R3项目上，订单目标至少10亿规模，已经提前介入相关环节的设计。R1+R2 项目，只是介入了设备制造

The 1st plant has been completed and probably ready to operate by 2023 or 2024 instead of 2025 claimed by Harvard "experts."
The 2nd plant will take 3 years to build so probably completing building process by 2024 and enter into production by 2025/2026.
The 3rd plant, which should start in 2023 optimistically, will take 2 or 3 years to complete.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

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Alright mystery solved. It is the 3rd 200Mt/year reprocessing plant, according to an interview with the board secretary from a participating company in 09/2022.



The 1st plant has been completed and probably ready to operate by 2023 or 2024 instead of 2025 claimed by Harvard "experts."
The 2nd plant will take 3 years to build so probably completing building process by 2024 and enter into production by 2025/2026.
The 3rd plant, which should start in 2023 optimistically, will take 2 or 3 years to complete.

That is too long. needs to ramp up both H.E..U designs and P.u. designs. 100 packages per year not 1 less.