China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[antiterror13]

Not likely though. I suspect it could be another 200Mt/year reprocessing plant given that it would be built at the proximity of the previous two plants. If it was a foreign design, it would have been built somewhere else for security reason. Or even more optimistically a domestic 800Mt/yr reprocessing plant.


The 3rd stage seems to be much more significant than I thought when I found it out.

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The suspected 3rd plant is bidding for concrete & ground ventilation filter, saying that concrete should be delivered within 60 months a.k.a 5 years, potentially differing the 3rd plant with existing 2nd plant. It could mean that the 3rd plant indeed exists instead of a subordinate project of two 200Mt/year plant.

Interestingly, the bidding was labeled as "military auctioning" on the website of Hunan civilian-military fusion platform. Though it is not decisive enough to determine that China is going to use it for military purposes.

Assuming three 200Mt/yr plants operating by 2030 or an later date, China could produce around 4.5t RgPu annually by using these reprocessing plants at 75% capacity factor, namely 1,000 warheads annually if using RgPu by lowering yield-weight ratio.

So RgPu can be used to make warhead? how much RgPu is needed for each warhead? My understanding is only 3kb WgPu is needed for each Chinese warhead. The Pu is only needed as the "trigger" for much bigger blast from Hydrogen part

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

So RgPu can be used to make warhead? how much RgPu is needed for each warhead?

No one serious uses reactor grade plutonium in a weapon. The warhead would have to be cooled and the radioactivity from Pu-240 would damage it. Whatever money using reactor junk saves would be paid several times over in excess maintenance and replacement costs.

If China needs plutonium, it will make weapons grade plutonium.

 

[Kalec]

Jiuquan 404 plant is also having a significant upgrade in recent year. If not mistaken, the biggest expansion since its establishment in 1960s. As everyone can notice that the main expansion is in the "military reprocessing plant" area, it could be a pilot MOX fuel production facility or possibly a restart of WGPu reproduction.

Here is comparison between 2020/02/03 and 2023/03/04. 2020/02 is the latest available satellite image on Google Earth and 2023/03 is practically few days ago.

 

[escobar]

DF-31A MIRV ??

H-6N bomber is armed with new nuclear-capable cruise missiles

China has "approximately 1,000 medium- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles..." The 2022 DOD report said 750+ MRBM/IRBMs (that was as of end-2021). Most of increase probably DF-26.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1633608837335752704

 

[ChongqingHotPot92]

DF-31A MIRV ??

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1633608837335752704

Why fielding DF-31s in those silos? Cost? With a 11,200 km range, those silo-based DF-31s couldn't even reach DC, unless there is a new DF-31C/G variant with completely new propellant and lighter body. In order to cover the entire CONUS with DF-31 family, I would imagine the PLARF replacing the old 470kg 535 warhead with the single new 120kg 575/shadow warheads. Only then would the payload be light enough for the DF-31 to possibly cover the entire CONUS plus US assets in the Caribbean. You want to make sure that your target fall well within your ICBM's maximum range, so that you could fire at a more lofted trajectory and better guarantee hits.

 

[drowingfish]

Why fielding DF-31s in those silos? Cost? With a 11,200 km range, those silo-based DF-31s couldn't even reach DC, unless there is a new DF-31C/G variant with completely new propellant and lighter body. In order to cover the entire CONUS with DF-31 family, I would imagine the PLARF replacing the old 470kg 535 warhead with the single new 120kg 575/shadow warheads. Only then would the payload be light enough for the DF-31 to possibly cover the entire CONUS plus US assets in the Caribbean. You want to make sure that your target fall well within your ICBM's maximum range, so that you could fire at a more lofted trajectory and better guarantee hits.

there are also viable targets like US bases in Australia, or the Diego Garcia.

 

[antiterror13]

Why fielding DF-31s in those silos? Cost? With a 11,200 km range, those silo-based DF-31s couldn't even reach DC, unless there is a new DF-31C/G variant with completely new propellant and lighter body. In order to cover the entire CONUS with DF-31 family, I would imagine the PLARF replacing the old 470kg 535 warhead with the single new 120kg 575/shadow warheads. Only then would the payload be light enough for the DF-31 to possibly cover the entire CONUS plus US assets in the Caribbean. You want to make sure that your target fall well within your ICBM's maximum range, so that you could fire at a more lofted trajectory and better guarantee hits.

What are the blast yield of 535 and 575 ?

 

[ChongqingHotPot92]

What are the blast yield of 535 and 575 ?

470kg 535 = 650kt
120kg 575 = 150kt

The 575 should be much more accurate than the 535 and city busters. The most important advantage for 575 is its light weight (similar to the W76 in US service), albeit the yield is relatively smaller compared to comparable warheads in service. In fact, I would imagine the core of the 575 being re-engineered fitted onto the DF-17 or the ALBM for the H-6 bombers, as soon as there's enough plutonium and gas. The 120kg weight (the spherical core probably weights less) also works for CJ-10 cruise missiles should the PLA consider developing a hypothetical "CJ-10H (H stands for nuclear)". Now these are all speculations.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

The most important advantage for 575 is its light weight (similar to the W76 in US service), albeit the yield is relatively smaller compared to comparable warheads in service.

What are the reasons for this?

 

[ChongqingHotPot92]

What are the reasons for this?

Less plutonium, HEU, smaller second stage, and small spherical core in general. With less nuclear materials, you could only sustain the limited fusion for so long even if you have enough tritium and deuterium gas. The second stage of the spherical warhead is the key. By limiting your warhead size, the second stage's HEU would be limited, so there's just not enough fuel to sustain a larger fusion. If you have a bigger second stage plus enough tritium/deuterium gas, you could generate a much more powerful fusion reaction. Keep in mind that fusion would not fizzle out as long as you have enough fuel input to sustain it (like the Sun).

Such sustainment for nuclear fusion is currently impossible on Earth since all thermonuclear warheads (the only available nuclear fusion humans have achieved so far) would at some point (usually within a second) would run out of HEU fuel after the secondary were detonated. However, scientists are currently working on civilian fusion reactors called the tokamak with the hope of creating sustained fusion for electricity generation, just like fission could be sustained using pressurized water reactors.