read above posts of Kalec about China's current production rate of WgPu. very interesting information.
China have now enough Pu for 1600 warheads. if increase production then 3000 plus.
China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread
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China have now enough Pu for 1600 warheads. if increase production then 3000 plus.
It is actually not an increase of production but a reassessment of past production. The current estimation is based on claim that China halved plutonium production rate in 1980. The source he used is simple as "Chinese government says nuclear war becomes not possible in 80s so I half the production rate for convenience." He also claimed that it is due to shift from purely military purpose to civilian-military purpose.
Okay but the first Chinese nuclear power plant was completed in 1991 and China didn't export nuclear fuel, so I guess the nuclear worker must have literally abandoned their work for a decade according to his claim.
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antiterror13
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Just a bit of wild idea ... considering the huge stockpile of WgPu the Russian have .. would it be possible that China just buy a few tons of it for let's say $1B and some technology transfers (i.e radar, elecronics, weapons, etc) .. Russia badly needs money and hardware and technologies
?? Why would China need to buy WgPu.
Kalec just went over that even the absolute minimum estimates would put china at having enough for 1600 nuclear warheads, and that is RIGHT NOW with no new production having started up since the 90s, and that is WITH that strange behavior of 'halving production' with no evidence or actual real reason either for do so.
Would probably be cheaper to just construct a facility to start of production of it, and possibly even faster lol.
WgPu is very expensive according to American source, $4.65M/kg. It would be close to $10M/kg if adjusted for inflation. $1B for 1t WgPu is not cost-effective at least from China's point of view. ofc it will be a different story to intentionally pump Russian war machine.
I think currently China is buying Russian HEU to fuel CFR-600, also mentioned by Pentagon's report. According to the very Zhang Hui claim, each CFR-600 can produce enough spent fuel for 200kg WgPu per year, a.k.a 100 warheads. The first batch of Russian HEU has arrived China this year.
Though I think China won't produce that much enough it has enough plutonium. US plan to resume its plutonium pit production to 80/yr by 2030 so the constrain of warhead expansion is not even plutonium but many complicated factors.
I think currently China is buying Russian HEU to fuel CFR-600, also mentioned by Pentagon's report. According to the very Zhang Hui claim, each CFR-600 can produce enough spent fuel for 200kg WgPu per year, a.k.a 100 warheads. The first batch of Russian HEU has arrived China this year.
Though I think China won't produce that much enough it has enough plutonium. US plan to resume its plutonium pit production to 80/yr by 2030 so the constrain of warhead expansion is not even plutonium but many complicated factors.
I don't think it would be cheaper for China to produce it domestically than buy from Russia，in light of Russia's current circumstances，they need sell everything on discount，and China can buy it using RMB. All though I don't think Russia would sell it .
Hm, I do suppose that is true.
Moreoever, buying directly does have the added benefit of getting it quick as well I suppose.
Anyways, still doesn't really change the fact that China most likely should have enough of it though.
antiterror13
Brigadier
I think if Xi had asked Putin, likely China would get it ... but probably Xi wouldn't ask
It's not as simple I think. The US/West raise hue and cry over even the minutest happenings in China, no matter how secretive China & Russia would like to keep such a deal, details can always leak out leading to condemnation/more sanctions and fear mongering. Those pesky US intelligence agencies also track chips and other critical components such as Gyros used by North Korean military in their IRBM/ICBMs.
1125 tonnes is actually quite low unless it is monthly or something special. The US was producing 14000 tonnes of HMX annually in 1969.
"HMX is currently produced at only one facility in the United States, the Holston Army Ammunition
Plant in Kingsport, Tennessee. Estimated production volume of HMX was about 30 million pounds
annually between 1969 and 1971. No estimates of current production volume were located, but it is
estimated that its use is increasing (Army 1984a, 1989; EPA 1986)."
I know, it was the Vietnam War era and the US ammunition spending was crazy but the numbers don't add up.
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