China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[weig2000]

I fear this is signaling due to a back channel threat. Some certain regime may have attempted strategic blackmail, and this is China's response. Otherwise there's not much point in concentrating so many tests at once, when telemetry from older tests are still being reviewed.

It would be silly at this stage for China to launch some ballistic missile to signal some displeasures and send some messages to certain party or parties. What exactly are the messages to send? That China has ballistic missiles? That there are some more advanced ballistic missiles in its possession? All these would equate China to be another North Korea.

China is testing ballistic missiles more frequently is simply because China needs to--it likely has quite a number of new ballistic missles development programs underway or they're on accelerated pace testing them.

Sometimes, the simplest explanations are the closest ones to truth. Call it Occam's Razor.

 

[coolgod]

I fear this is signaling due to a back channel threat. Some certain regime may have attempted strategic blackmail, and this is China's response. Otherwise there's not much point in concentrating so many tests at once, when telemetry from older tests are still being reviewed.

It would be silly at this stage for China to launch some ballistic missile to signal some displeasures and send some messages to certain party or parties. What exactly are the messages to send? That China has ballistic missiles? That there are some more advanced ballistic missiles in its possession? All these would equate China to be another North Korea.

China is testing ballistic missiles more frequently is simply because China needs to--it likely has quite a number of new ballistic missles development programs underway or they're on accelerated pace testing them.

Sometimes, the simplest explanations are the closest ones to truth. Call it Occam's Razor.

Lloyd Austin just met with Wei Fenghe on Nov 22nd. It's very likely the timing of these tests are not a coincidence.

 

[Kalec]

The trajectory is similar to previous hypersonic test in 2018, I think the test is not for strategic purpose.

 

[tphuang]

according to Patch, China does 300 ballistic missile tests a year. so I would think this kind of testing is regular.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

according to Patch, China does 300 ballistic missile tests a year. so I would think this kind of testing is regular.

Is there a chart of breakdown on the missile types and models from those tests?

 

[Taiban]

PLARF Shooting, Training and Test Range, China
CHINA, 39.1971252, 88.6664107

 

[weig2000]

We have known for a while that Pentagon has been using FT as a channel to leak Chinese military information, particularly the more strategic ones. And through this particular reporter often. Here is the latest one on Chinese nuclear arsenal.

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The archived version

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.

Some of the more interesting excerpts.

China has developed 400 nuclear warheads and is on course to expand its arsenal to 1,500 weapons by the middle of the next decade as its continues a dramatic expansion of its nuclear forces, according to a Pentagon report.

Underscoring the rapid expansion, the Pentagon said the PLA last year launched about 135 ballistic missiles for testing and training — more than the rest of the world combined, excluding launches in conflict zones.

The Pentagon said China was also investing heavily in space, including everything from intelligence assets to weapons to counter an adversary in space, such as kinetic-kill missiles and ground-based lasers. It said China had more than 260 intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) satellite systems, which marked an almost doubling since 2018. “The PLA owns and operates about half of the world’s ISR systems,” the Pentagon said in the report, which added that China was developing increasingly capable satellites. “These improvements increase China’s monitoring capabilities — including observation of US aircraft carriers.”

 

[Kalec]

I think the "1,500 warheads" comes from new Pentagon report here.

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Nothing particularly new here and even amateurs like us have agreed a nuclear parity with US to be the minimum requirement of current expansion. Twitter arm control nerds are questioning that it would only happen "IF" China continues nuclear expansion, meanwhile I also disagree with Pentagon assessment but on "when."

Last year's report noted:

The number of warheads on the PRC’s land-based ICBMs capable of threatening the United States is expected to grow to roughly 200 in the next five years.

And the number of warheads magically increased to 400+ this year. Is Pentagon trying to say China produced 200 warheads over one year period and somehow decreased the production rate to a lower-100 from 2022? US STRATCOM Commander Charles Richard said earlier this year that China had already doubled its nuclear arsenal despite expectations it would take Beijing until the end of the decade to do so.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1597648746224881667

I am wondering if Decker is referring warhead assembly expansion in Mianyang, I haven't checked the satellite photo myself but it is very likely to be the case as previous warhead production rate doesn't suffice the demand.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

Last year's report noted:

And the number of warheads magically increased to 400+ this year. Is Pentagon trying to say China produced 200 warheads over one year period and somehow decreased the production rate to a lower-100 from 2022? US STRATCOM Commander Charles Richard said earlier this year that China had already doubled its nuclear arsenal despite expectations it would take Beijing until the end of the decade to do so.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1597648746224881667

I am wondering if Decker is referring warhead assembly expansion in Mianyang, I haven't checked the satellite photo myself but it is very likely to be the case as previous warhead production rate doesn't suffice the demand.

Wait... how is China producing 200 warheads in just one year to 400+ warheads when their own generally agreed estimates over the past years is just 350 warheads?

 

[AssassinsMace]

This is where how the pro-US side taunts to China that they have to match the US in order to have a chance to win biting them back in the ass. This is the West putting up their defensive shields so they can feign ignorance and proclaim they don't know why China is all of the sudden building more nukes. It can't be anything they've done.... They brag about how the US has more allies... and China has to be able to knock them out of the game with more nukes. In nature for every action there's an equal and opposite reaction and they want to ignore that because they're a bunch of girl scouts, all spice and everything nice. It's not like they can claim China has more nukes than the innocent West. And remember the average American only recently discovered China is a nuclear power because they believed that if China ever got nukes, the Chinese would be using them left and right as soon as they got them. So Americans' conclusion is China doesn't have nukes because the world would be experiencing countries being nuked. Since that isn't happening that must mean China doesn't have any. China has had nukes since 1964. Over half a century China has had the bomb without ever using it on another country. The US once it got the bomb immediately used it on another country and still is the only country to this day to use a nuke against another country. That's how China should be talking to others about the US and the West and they'll be outraged at the truth being spoken when all they do is lie that they're innocent and responsible.