China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[tphuang]

Hahah, no comment

For wake detection, a MPA is not better (if not worse) than a satellite. I must enhance that constantly tracking is almost impossible but a large scale static map is highly possible.
SSK has much less wake flow because of its slow speed, small volume, low power and the advantage of stopping the whole power system (if SSBNs linger in shallow water, thermal wake will become obvious soon)

: D

Boomers move pretty slowly normally. There are photos of earliest 093s moving while surfaced and there wasn't even much wake. I find the idea that the recent 094s can cause much wake while submerged in yellow sea to be quite dubious. After all, propeller technology likely have improved quite a bit since those early 093. Also since boomers aren't expected to move quickly, they also use propeller technology that emphasizes reduced wake rather than higher speed.

094s likely operating area should be well known to us navy by now. It significantly expands on the surface area that would have to be targeted to eliminate second strike capabilities.

 

[SEAD]

Boomers move pretty slowly normally. There are photos of earliest 093s moving while surfaced and there wasn't even much wake. I find the idea that the recent 094s can cause much wake while submerged in yellow sea to be quite dubious. After all, propeller technology likely have improved quite a bit since those early 093. Also since boomers aren't expected to move quickly, they also use propeller technology that emphasizes reduced wake rather than higher speed.

094s likely operating area should be well known to us navy by now. It significantly expands on the surface area that would have to be targeted to eliminate second strike capabilities.

There’re several kinds of wake for submarine but most of them are invisible to naked eyes(even the mechanical wake), you need SAR and IR sensors to detect them. It’s different from surface ships.

 

[tphuang]

There’re several kinds of wake for submarine but most of them are invisible to naked eyes(even the mechanical wake), you need SAR and IR sensors to detect them. It’s different from surface ships.

Sure, that's fine, but the point of working and creating newer submarines is to lower these signatures. In a large water body with a lot of ships, how are you going to track these things from space? I have never heard of any submariner (and I have spoken to people who are in the community) that using satellite to find boomers is a thing. Asw is really hard.

 

[SEAD]

Sure, that's fine, but the point of working and creating newer submarines is to lower these signatures.

Propellers are not relevant to the main part of wake, a huge mass moving underwater must cause internal waves while reactors always need cooling water.

In a large water body with a lot of ships, how are you going to track these things from space? I have never heard of any submariner (and I have spoken to people who are in the community) that using satellite to find boomers is a thing. Asw is really hard.

Don't forget how well they did to keep SOSUS secret. Meanwhile I don't believe PLAN will let their SSBN take such risk, they have been in enough danger even in SCS.

 

[Kalec]

well you need all 3? Why do you think they developed 092s even though it had no ability to strike any adversary outside of the Siberia? 094 is part of the evolutionary path to a quiet SSBN. Eventually, they will get something that's quiet enough where USN can't track it as soon as it leaves the port and it could be escorted by 095s in the process. They will be able to launch ballistic missiles from the middle of Pacific Ocean and be able to attack from a whole different flight profile. Currently, American BMD is geared toward defending the north pole flight path. if you can put a 096 in the middle of Pacific Ocean with a couple of 095s, then you can get much harder to defend flight path.

There is another factor here which is US military desire to maintain absolute strategic advantage. US navy is likely to blow most of its shipbuilding budget on the Columbia program because Ohio class is getting really old. Having large number of 094s on patrol would push us navy to maintain their 14 boat SSBN fleet. That would just suck up all of US naval budget.

They developed 092 but commissioned only one SSBN for a reason because SSBN doesn't fundamentally make Chinese strategic deterrence anything better rather a budget blackhole.

The problem here is that China can no longer maintain a minimal deterrence and Chinese SSBN is practically useless to address this problem. It is pretty effective for countries like UK or France to maintain a credible SSBN-based counterstrike because their nuclear policy is nothing but having a P5 status.

Let's say China to have 8 SSBN fleet in a near future e.g. 2025. At least 3 of them will under maintenance against a first strike and that will be 60 warheads in total ready for launch and some of them even unable to hit east coast. Meanwhile a brigade of DF-41 will do the same thing as entire SSBN fleet in a counterstrike scenario.

 

[SEAD]

They developed 092 but commissioned only one SSBN for a reason because SSBN doesn't fundamentally make Chinese strategic deterrence anything better rather a budget blackhole.

The problem here is that China can no longer maintain a minimal deterrence and Chinese SSBN is practically useless to address this problem. It is pretty effective for countries like UK or France to maintain a credible SSBN-based counterstrike because their nuclear policy is nothing but having a P5 status.

Let's say China to have 8 SSBN fleet in a near future e.g. 2025. At least 3 of them will under maintenance against a first strike and that will be 60 warheads in total ready for launch and some of them even unable to hit east coast. Meanwhile a brigade of DF-41 will do the same thing as entire SSBN fleet in a counterstrike scenario.

Cannot agree more. If they need some backups, long-ranged bombers with ALCM and H-6 with ALBM are much better choices. 10 SSBNs are as expensive as 200 long range bombers.

 

[tphuang]

Propellers are not relevant to the main part of wake, a huge mass moving underwater must cause internal waves while reactors always need cooling water.

Don't forget how well they did to keep SOSUS secret. Meanwhile I don't believe PLAN will let their SSBN take such risk, they have been in enough danger even in SCS.

You are basing your beliefs on speculation. I am basing my beliefs that scs is quite a no go zone based on what others have told me.

They developed 092 but commissioned only one SSBN for a reason because SSBN doesn't fundamentally make Chinese strategic deterrence anything better rather a budget blackhole.

The problem here is that China can no longer maintain a minimal deterrence and Chinese SSBN is practically useless to address this problem. It is pretty effective for countries like UK or France to maintain a credible SSBN-based counterstrike because their nuclear policy is nothing but having a P5 status.

Let's say China to have 8 SSBN fleet in a near future e.g. 2025. At least 3 of them will under maintenance against a first strike and that will be 60 warheads in total ready for launch and some of them even unable to hit east coast. Meanwhile a brigade of DF-41 will do the same thing as entire SSBN fleet in a counterstrike scenario.

Plan clearly feels otherwise or they wouldn't have built this many 094s and put jl2a on them.

With 095s joining service, china will be able to protect a patrolling 094 better than before and farther away from mpa coverage.

 

[Blitzo]

I don't even understand the rationale behind SSBN parity simply it is the most crippled leg of Chinese nuclear deterrence and why should China compete with US with the most expensive option in an imaginary nuclear war. Meanwhile spending less than your adversary is the only way to actually win a nuclear war.

Each SSBN is deployed with 12 launcher and every SLBM is able to be tipped with only one 650kt warhead, whereas a single DF-41 can tip 2 or 3 such warheads with a similar survivability. More importantly, the very survivability is a myth since around half of fleets will be in maintenance against a first strike and being destroyed in the shipyard.

A 50% survival rate doesn't make SSBN any better than silo field which maintains a higher survival rate even counterattack AFTER the first inbound warhead explodes on the ground. Arm control ppl acting like there is no middle ground between all destroyed on the ground and counterattack before the first inbound warhead exploding then arguing about the non-existent false conclusion they created on silo launched unsafety.

My perception is that having a viable SSBN industry and capability is important for supplementing the primary nuclear deterrence arm which is land based ICBMs.

Which is to say, for now the geopolitical environment is not favourable for SSBNs but one day it might be, and having a modern SSBN force (even if it is only of moderate size) helps to diversify current deterrence options and provides a degree of flexibility that they wouldn't have if they lacked SSBNs.

 

[Kalec]

Plan clearly feels otherwise or they wouldn't have built this many 094s and put jl2a on them.

With 095s joining service, china will be able to protect a patrolling 094 better than before and farther away from mpa coverage.

Six 094 is not outrageously is high though, and it is reasonable to keep a SSBN development team over time. I think it is the main reason that PLAN did one-of-a-kind type commission on SSN fleets, so many variant over years meanwhile surface battleship got mass-produced in a short time once finalized plan. However nuclear deterrence is still a PLARF job as the main point is to reduce possibility of a conventional US-China war to zero.

For so many years, US "analyst" or "think tank" hypered on Taiwan because China is not in the MAD level nuclear deterrence. What China urgently needs right now is large quantity of warheads & delivery vehicles enough to blow up every major cities in CONUS. Neither SSBN nor ALBM can do this job.

It is so weird that ppl keeps talking about a non-existent US first strike against China as if China is conventionally threatening US to a point that US must use nuclear weapon to respond or the country collapses. On the contrary, China was under consistent American nuclear coercion for 70 years and it is US who should worry about this new development and how to deter Russia and China simultaneously instead of the other way around.

TL;DR if one is insecure of nuclear survivability after the nuclear expansion, they should haven't slept well for the past 70 years when Chinese MAD is non-existent.

My perception is that having a viable SSBN industry and capability is important for supplementing the primary nuclear deterrence arm which is land based ICBMs.

Which is to say, for now the geopolitical environment is not favourable for SSBNs but one day it might be, and having a modern SSBN force (even if it is only of moderate size) helps to diversify current deterrence options and provides a degree of flexibility that they wouldn't have if they lacked SSBNs.

Totally agreed, it is cool to keep SSBN industry and may find them handy in the future but certainly not right now. It is why they are making one-of-a-kind variant instead of mass producing like 052Ds.

Another point is SSBN can withhold the first wave of nuclear exchange and maintain Chinese nuclear status even after the nuclear war if the war ever stops here.

 

[tphuang]

Six 094 is not outrageously is high though, and it is reasonable to keep a SSBN development team over time. I think it is the main reason that PLAN did one-of-a-kind type commission on SSN fleets, so many variant over years meanwhile surface battleship got mass-produced in a short time once finalized plan. However nuclear deterrence is still a PLARF job as the main point is to reduce possibility of a conventional US-China war to zero.

For so many years, US "analyst" or "think tank" hypered on Taiwan because China is not in the MAD level nuclear deterrence. What China urgently needs right now is large quantity of warheads & delivery vehicles enough to blow up every major cities in CONUS. Neither SSBN nor ALBM can do this job.

It is so weird that ppl keeps talking about a non-existent US first strike against China as if China is conventionally threatening US to a point that US must use nuclear weapon to respond or the country collapses. On the contrary, China was under consistent American nuclear coercion for 70 years and it is US who should worry about this new development and how to deter Russia and China simultaneously instead of the other way around.

TL;DR if one is insecure of nuclear survivability after the nuclear expansion, they should haven't slept well for the past 70 years when Chinese MAD is non-existent.


Totally agreed, it is cool to keep SSBN industry and may find them handy in the future but certainly not right now. It is why they are making one-of-a-kind variant instead of mass producing like 052Ds.

Another point is SSBN can withhold the first wave of nuclear exchange and maintain Chinese nuclear status even after the nuclear war if the war ever stops here.

I think that's part of it. The other part is having crew that are experienced in doing patrols. The end goal is 096 and being able to do patrol in open ocean. I do think that 094 met certain criteria for plan. Otherwise, they wouldn't have built 8 of them.