China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[Temstar]

The B61 is a nothing burger. They need to overfly a target to hit it. China's long wave radar will detect the strike way before that happens. The real problem is if/when the US starts deploying the Dark Eagle missile. But for that they need to actually get it to work first.

I don't think B61 is a nothing burger. I don't think PLAAF and PLAN can 100% cross their heart and give guarantee that absolutely no F-35 will penetrate the A2/AD zone and drop the bomb on AR fleet. Likewise it's actually dropped it has the yield to do potentially quite some damage. So used tactically it's certainly a threat.

It's only a nothing burger in terms of "wave the nuclear stick to salvage conventional defeat" situation. CPC has long made the call and openly declared US to be paper tiger, when it comes down to it CPC will once again tell US you guys don't have the balls to drop the nuke, the same way that you didn't back during the Korean War before PRC was a nuclear power. But unlike Korean War just in case you are crazy enough to actually do it PRC has answer in terms of nuclear tipped DF-26. Just as a B61 might make reunification harder by taking out some of the fleet, that advantage will be nullified almost immediately by PLARF taking out a US base within 2nd island chain with nuke tipped IRBM and we're back to square one. And then what? More B61 or we go straight to MAD? Or the president is going to argue at the UN that "it's so unfair! Their warheads have much bigger yield than ours even though yes, we used it first."

More fundamentally, Ayi's point is that Nuclear Blackmail by ways of building smaller and smaller tactical nuke to lower the barrier for nuclear weapons use is no deterrence at all. Russia is waving the nuclear stick right now yet it's not deterring NATO from giving significant aid to Ukraine. On the contrary your opponent is not an NPC incapable of agency. When you start to show this posture they will start to respond by expanding their own arsenal. We are seeing China expanding strategic weapons at great scale with all those silos in exact response to this and US is in an awkward position of not really able to respond properly as Minuteman are 50 year old and need replacement quick, Ohio are similarly in need of replacement and B21 with gravity dropped bombs have questionable ability to deliver the payload on top of PLA (never mind the laughable B-52 in Australia thing), they are having enough trouble as it is trying to keep the current delivery vehicle count much less expanding.

 

[Kalec]

More fundamentally, Ayi's point is that Nuclear Blackmail by ways of building smaller and smaller tactical nuke to lower the barrier for nuclear weapons use is no deterrence at all.

I think almost everyone is on the same page here. Lower yield doesn't make sense in deterrence, completely waste of both money and time.

US is in an awkward position of not really able to respond properly as Minuteman are 50 year old and need replacement quick, Ohio are similarly in need of replacement and B21 with gravity dropped bombs have questionable ability to deliver the payload on top of PLA (never mind the laughable B-52 in Australia thing), they are having enough trouble as it is trying to keep the current delivery vehicle count much less expanding.

Not exactly, they can tip more warheads on Trident and even more on GBSD in the future, but fundamentally it doesn't increase deterrence credibility and on the contrary it is inviting further arm race.

As the chart shows, almost 50% of nuclear cost is on deployment not on the bomb. And China has a huge advantage to outgun US in term of missile manufacturing capability. China needs only less than $30 billion to deploy silos with Peacekeeper meanwhile GBSD costs $100 billion in acquisition to find a successor for Minuteman III. The purchasing disparity is beyond madness, it is very sensible for US to stay at current 1,550 limit.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

I think almost everyone is on the same page here. Lower yield doesn't make sense in deterrence, completely waste of both money and time.

Not exactly, they can tip more warheads on Trident and even more on GBSD in the future, but fundamentally it doesn't increase deterrence credibility and on the contrary it is inviting further arm race.

As the chart shows, almost 50% of nuclear cost is on deployment not on the bomb. And China has a huge advantage to outgun US in term of missile manufacturing capability. China needs only less than $30 billion to deploy silos with Peacekeeper meanwhile GBSD costs $100 billion in acquisition to find a successor for Minuteman III. The purchasing disparity is beyond madness, it is very sensible for US to stay at current 1,550 limit.

Some country is politically restricted from TELs. but for China, TELs are the most survivable and cost effective deployment method in 3 metrics: readiness, survivability and situational awareness.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

Two quick questions:

1. How effective do you guys think would be - By using lower-yield nuclear warheads against enemy military bases, command centers and infrastructure of critical value? Higher-yield nuclear warheads are, of course, meant for population centers and cities, which would be the context for nuclear deterrence mentioned above.

2. Does China has any equivalent to the currently work-in-progress nuclear-tipped AGM-181 LRSO? Perferably supersonic?

 

[Jj888]

We are seeing China expanding strategic weapons at great scale with all those silos in exact response to this and US is in an awkward position of not really able to respond properly as Minuteman are 50 year old and need replacement quick, Ohio are similarly in need of replacement and B21 with gravity dropped bombs have questionable ability to deliver the payload on top of PLA (never mind the laughable B-52 in Australia thing), they are having enough trouble as it is trying to keep the current delivery vehicle count much less expanding.

To depend on 50 years old missiles with aged electronics & motors I wonder what’s the outcome when activated.

possibility it work is low. High possibility is it won’t reach it's intended target or it will just detonate immediately

anyone with 50 years old electronics devices?

 

[ironborn]

To depend on 50 years old missiles with aged electronics & motors I wonder what’s the outcome when activated.

possibility it work is low. High possibility is it won’t reach it's intended target or it will just detonate immediately

anyone with 50 years old electronics devices?

You be surprised how some airplanes still need floppy drive to service them today.

 

[Jj888]

You be surprised how some airplanes still need floppy drive to service them today.

In usa & Canada?

 

[hullopilllw]

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US urges China nuclear talks amid concerns over its rising capabilities alongside Russia threat​

• Push follows Biden administration’s release of Nuclear Posture Review reflecting its desire for ‘integrated deterrence’ approach

Amid growing unease over China’s rising nuclear capabilities and a lack of bilateral dialogue, Washington is calling for talks with Beijing, concerned that for the first time in history the US will soon face two “major nuclear powers”.

Unsure where China is going with its nuclear arsenal, the US would “really like to have a conversation with them about each other’s doctrines about crisis communication, crisis management”, said Alexandra Bell, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for arms control, verification, and compliance, speaking at an Atlantic Council event in Washington on Tuesday.

“We’ve been working this issue with the Russians for 60 years. And as everyone can see, it’s still quite difficult,” Bell said. “We’re not in that space with Beijing yet.”

seems like US fears losing its nuclear leverage.. lamfooo

Talks only make sense when parity is achieved. Before then, everything is bird talk.

实力永远是维护正义的基础，国防才是外交的后盾，尊严只在剑锋之上，真理只在大炮射程之内。
Strength is always the foundation of maintaining justice, national defense is the backing of diplomacy, dignity is only above the sword, and truth is only within the range of cannons.

 

[antiterror13]

You be surprised how some airplanes still need floppy drive to service them today.

huhhh, what airplane?

 

[ironborn]

huhhh, what airplane?

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