China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[Kalec]

Some update on DF-5 new variant in the order of timeline:

CASC tested its newest hypergolic engine, a high-pressure staged-combustion one back in June, 2021.

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试验台的观测大厅，随着试验指挥的一次次播报声音，聚集在大厅里的设计人员不由自主地挺直了身子，紧张地盯着电子屏幕，常规补燃发动机党员攻坚队的队长王鹏武的喉结蠕动了一下。

“轰”地一声，发动机拖着橘色的火焰，巨大的白色水雾从秦岭深处的凤州试车台喷薄而出，所有的试验队员屏息凝神，感受着脚底的震撼，大家紧张地注视着大屏上不断传回的试验数据和信息，一会儿，现场响起了热烈地掌声。

“该发动机关键技术多，研制难度大、任务紧，能够圆满完成本次试验任务真的很开心。”常温推进剂发动机室主任刘上高兴地说。

Then there was a follow up report on October, 2022:

The engine was further being tested, making a milestone. The design deputy director said that they re-iterate in simulation over and over again to make sure 100% successful rate on hot test. The hypergolic engine also used 3D print technology to reduce weight, the total mass of engine is about 850kg.

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某型高压补燃发动机在半系统试车成功基础上，成功完成了2台整机热试车，创造了国内大推力发动机最长首次整机试车时间，标志着该型发动机关键技术取得重大突破。
某型高压补燃发动机射流泵弯管、承力座、支座、径向约束装置、燃料入口四通、燃料主阀壳体等采用3D打印制造，重量占比约10%（发动机总重约850kg）。

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They tested a cluster of three engines recently.

常温推进剂发动机总体研究室迅速进入疫情防控、科研工作双线管理状态，在酒泉、凤县等六地联合，保障各项任务圆满开展。张金容、张敏贵带队在西昌配合多发飞行任务；冯耀辉、王宏让带队在酒泉配合多发火箭飞行任务；刘上带队在凤县配合型号研制试车及型号抽检试车任务，常规二级抽检试车圆满成功、某型发动机三机并联动力系统试车圆满成功的消息让全所干部职工为之一振。

 

[sunnymaxi]

Some update on DF-5 new variant in the order of timeline:

CASC tested its newest hypergolic engine, a high-pressure staged-combustion one back in June, 2021.

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Then there was a follow up report on October, 2022:

The engine was further being tested, making a milestone. The design deputy director said that they re-iterate in simulation over and over again to make sure 100% successful rate on hot test. The hypergolic engine also used 3D print technology to reduce weight, the total mass of engine is about 850kg.

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They tested a cluster of three engines recently.

this is DF-5C variant? a super heavy silo based ICBM

 

[Kalec]

this is DF-5C variant? a super heavy silo based ICBM

Tbh I dunno, none of the official news confirmed nor denied whether the new engine is for military use or civilian use.

All we know is that China is upgrading and building new silo upon old DF-5 silos and a new civilian hypergolic engine doesn't make sense. Personally I am not a fan of liquid ICBM and would be more than glad to see DF-5 retiring, but here is the fact CASC is developing this very engine.

 

[Kalec]

I think the picture is getting clearer rn as we have the gross weight for engine, which is 850 kg. YF-20/YF-20B has a gross weight around 712.5 kg so the new engine is very likely to be "new" design instead of improvement on YF-20.

RD-263/RD-273 is the first comparable engine comes to my mind, both have a gross weight near 870kg, but we have no data over chamber pressure on the new engine yet. Overall performance should be razor-thin better than original RD-263 since it has used 3d print tech to reduce engine weight and possibly material improvement. Also weird that news mentioned that CASC tested a cluster of 2/3 such engine but RD-264/RD-274 consists of 4 engines.

I can think of two possibilities here:

1. Since we use RD-263 as baseline here, it has a thrust force of 230,000 lbf at sea level. It means 3 of them could power a DF-5 and CASC can use a cluster of 3 engines to make a new DF-5 variant without changing its throw weight too much.

2. China build a similar liquid ICBM close to R36M with modern technology.

TL;DR: China re-invented RD-263 again just like Russia re-invented PDU-99.

 

[Kalec]

PLARF Brigade HQ has appeared in Hami, similar size (0.2 km2) to the one in Yumen. One silo field, one brigade HQ.

I think it can end hearsay like "They have to deploy many brigades in one silo field." or "What about shell games, you know [buzzwords and more buzzwords]."

PLARF Hami HQ
42.32013, 92.16283


PLARF Yumen HQ
40.06244, 96.42573

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

I think the picture is getting clearer rn as we have the gross weight for engine, which is 850 kg. YF-20/YF-20B has a gross weight around 712.5 kg so the new engine is very likely to be "new" design instead of improvement on YF-20.

RD-263/RD-273 is the first comparable engine comes to my mind, both have a gross weight near 870kg, but we have no data over chamber pressure on the new engine yet. Overall performance should be razor-thin better than original RD-263 since it has used 3d print tech to reduce engine weight and possibly material improvement. Also weird that news mentioned that CASC tested a cluster of 2/3 such engine but RD-264/RD-274 consists of 4 engines.

I can think of two possibilities here:

1. Since we use RD-263 as baseline here, it has a thrust force of 230,000 lbf at sea level. It means 3 of them could power a DF-5 and CASC can use a cluster of 3 engines to make a new DF-5 variant without changing its throw weight too much.

2. China build a similar liquid ICBM close to R36M with modern technology.

TL;DR: China re-invented RD-263 again just like Russia re-invented PDU-99.

View attachment 100929

Why would China use an old, retired engine like RD-263 as any kind of standard?

 

[gelgoog]

Rocket engine technology has not evolved that much since. At best you might be able to make a rocket engine with less parts by using 3D printing.

 

[Kalec]

"This Ukraine crisis that we're in right now, this is just the warmup," Navy Adm. Charles A. Richard, commander of Stratcom, said. "The big one is coming. And it isn't going to be very long before we're going to get tested in ways that we haven't been tested a long time."

Competitors like China, Richard said, are outcompeting the U.S., and in a dramatic fashion. The U.S. must step up its deterrence game, he said, or it's going to be bowled over.

"As I assess our level of deterrence against China, the ship is slowly sinking," he said. "It is sinking slowly, but it is sinking, as fundamentally they are putting capability in the field faster than we are. As those curves keep going, it isn't going to matter how good our [operating plan] is or how good our commanders are, or how good our forces are — we're not going to have enough of them. And that is a very near-term problem."

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President Xi isn't allowing a MAD gap!

 

[sunnymaxi]

"This Ukraine crisis that we're in right now, this is just the warmup," Navy Adm. Charles A. Richard, commander of Stratcom, said. "The big one is coming. And it isn't going to be very long before we're going to get tested in ways that we haven't been tested a long time."

Competitors like China, Richard said, are outcompeting the U.S., and in a dramatic fashion. The U.S. must step up its deterrence game, he said, or it's going to be bowled over.

"As I assess our level of deterrence against China, the ship is slowly sinking," he said. "It is sinking slowly, but it is sinking, as fundamentally they are putting capability in the field faster than we are. As those curves keep going, it isn't going to matter how good our [operating plan] is or how good our commanders are, or how good our forces are — we're not going to have enough of them. And that is a very near-term problem."

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President Xi isn't allowing a MAD gap!
View attachment 101176

LAMOOOO

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US can't win nuclear arm race against the world's largest industrial powerhouse..

 

[weig2000]

"This Ukraine crisis that we're in right now, this is just the warmup," Navy Adm. Charles A. Richard, commander of Stratcom, said. "The big one is coming. And it isn't going to be very long before we're going to get tested in ways that we haven't been tested a long time."

Competitors like China, Richard said, are outcompeting the U.S., and in a dramatic fashion. The U.S. must step up its deterrence game, he said, or it's going to be bowled over.

"As I assess our level of deterrence against China, the ship is slowly sinking," he said. "It is sinking slowly, but it is sinking, as fundamentally they are putting capability in the field faster than we are. As those curves keep going, it isn't going to matter how good our [operating plan] is or how good our commanders are, or how good our forces are — we're not going to have enough of them. And that is a very near-term problem."

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President Xi isn't allowing a MAD gap!
View attachment 101176

The concern expressed by Navy Adm. Charles A. Richard is genuine and sincere, not some exaggerated fear-mongering to get more defense spending. It reflects the current status of the US military, against its adversaries.

"As I assess our level of deterrence against China, the ship is slowly sinking," he said. "It is sinking slowly, but it is sinking, as fundamentally they are putting capability in the field faster than we are. As those curves keep going, it isn't going to matter how good our [operating plan] is or how good our commanders are, or how good our forces are — we're not going to have enough of them. And that is a very near-term problem."

Indeed, see how fast PLAN has been building their ships of all kinds, how quickly they ramp up the production rates of J-20 and J-16, and the vast variety of the drones they're rolling out. Just look at Zhuhai Airshow.

One area where the U.S. still dominates is with its underseas capabilities — the U.S. submarine fleet, Richard said.

"Undersea capabilities is still the one ... maybe the only true asymmetric advantage we still have against our opponents," Richard said. "But unless we pick up the pace, in terms of getting our maintenance problems fixed, getting new construction going ... if we can't figure that out ... we are not going to put ourselves in a good position to maintain strategic deterrence and national defense."

Indeed. Underwater capabilities is probably the single biggest area where PLAN has significant weakness, particularly nuclear submarines. But then again, when we talk about within the first island chain or even around the first island chain, China's large fleet of advanced conventional submarines are serious force to be reckoned with.

In some way, it's like the US takes a look at the formidable and fast advancing Chinese industrial capabilities and sees the semiconductor as the only area it still has asymmetric advantage...

Regaining the advantage in other areas might mean looking backwards, as much as 60 or more years, Richard said, to a time when the U.S. military was able to do things faster than what it does today.

"We used to know how to move fast, and we have lost the art of that," he said.

The Admiral's solution is looking backward to the history, i.e., getting nostalgic, to a time when the US was the unquestioned industrial behemoths. The sad thing is that it is China today that is closer to the US in the '50s in terms of industrial capabilities--China simply moves faster and at a larger scale.