we have come to the point that FAS knowledge is not much better than a collective of internet sources either English, or Chinese speaking
China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread
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we have come to the point that FAS knowledge is not much better than a collective of internet sources either English, or Chinese speaking
FYI, this FAS article has links to the original story: an hearing of the US DIA (defence intelligence agency) in washington.
This article is not a collective of internet sources.
coolieno99
Junior Member
Estimating a foe's nuclear arsenal is a "shot in the dark". During the height of the Cold War(1980's), U.S. intelligence estimate the Soviet Union had 20,000 nuclear weapons. In reality, the Soviets actually had 40,000 nuclear weapons. So U.S. intelligence is off by 100%. During the fall of the Soviet Union( 1990's), the U.S. offered Russia 20,000 special containers to secure its nuclear inventory. The Russian agree to the proposal, but ask for 40,000 containers.
Broccoli
Senior Member
All official sources say that Chinese have so far tested missiles with only one RV and penaids, so until they do test MIRVs we don't know if they have them. Jeffrey Lewis mentions in he's book "Minimum Means of Reprisal", that DF-4 penaids were designed to defeat Moscow's ABM shield.
PRC is a unique country among the P5 nations because there scientist have their say how nuclear weapons are deployed, and in other nations it's only the military men who make such decisions. That is probably biggest reason why Chinese do not panic like Russians when they hear about US ABM systems.
I''m not disputing FAS sources or credibility of the report
It's just interesting to me that the article is un-interesting, for these pieces of info are old :
1. no definitive proof of DF-41
2. no solid information on MIRV, though this is a given looking at civilian space program
3. TEL counts in 2009 parade shows no significant increase
if we to render credibility when throwing out this information out there people would have find it hard to accept
while FAS, not shedding much information otherwise, should have dug deeper than this
I just hope for the sake of PLA that they retire this piece of museum soon. I wonder why do they still use it. DF-21 should be much better than this, and it has been in use for years.
Does anyone here knows if there is any vídeo that shows the launching of DF-21 or dF-31?
Broccoli
Senior Member
PLA is not ready to say goodbye to those 3MT warheads? DF-21A is claimed to have 90kt warhead and it's not much (relatively speaking) if compared to 3MT. There was rumors back in the day that DF-31A is armed with a single 90kt warhead.
This is only DF-21 launch video I have managed to find.
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Equation
Lieutenant General
Perhaps the PLA and the 2nd Artillery Corps are training the new recruits with the older DF-4 models as to get them accustom and acquainted with the rituals for missile launch prep. It's more of the exercise and prepping that matters, not so much what is being launch until the recruits reach the next level of their training.
Broccoli
Senior Member
Unlikely because solid-fueled missiles do not need to be fueled before the launch, so what would be point of learning to fuel outdated missiles? There is pictures of 2nd Artillery Corps training launch prep with DF-15 mock up's, and why would they not do same with more important missiles like the DF-21.
This article from HK is probably very close to the truth.
http://www.sinodefenceforum.com/str...missiles-nuclear-arms-49-5881.html#post231981
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