China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[escobar]

How obvious does sarcasm need to be?

The point isn't "missing" it. How much reaction time will the silo fields have to Tridents being launched from Bohai or just off Jiangsu? The US could try to destroy the silos directly that way or suppress them via high altitude pindown as described while using other weapons like cruise missiles to destroy the incapacitated silos.
Or if a B-21 just launched a bunch of LRSOs at them or something would China even detect that?

Some PLA nuclear units are already on High alert. They even have now a TACAMO plane. They will detect a massive nuclear attack and will be ready for a retaliatory strike.

 

[ougoah]

>Meanwhile, analysts caution that China is likely to load only some of its silos with missiles, and only some of those may be nuclear-tipped.

Ah yes, the famous conventional DF-41.

What I want to know is the growth of the mobile force. How many new DF-41 TELs are we inducting. The harping about those 300 silos grows old. Even if they were all loaded with DF-41s and China completed the early warning system today, the survivability isn't great.

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, stealth cruise missiles, depressed trajectory SLBMs etc. are all conceivable threats that might defeat LoW.

China has over two dozen ship based "early warning". The older generations of land based early warning radars have been decommissioned and are being replaced but there are plenty of functioning land based ones. I suspect even long range SAM radars are capable of some early warning. Okay depressed trajectory missiles and stealth cruise missiles are much more effective at getting through early warning, particularly through the poles since there are no PLAN Type 346x units covering huge swatches of the airspace and typical orbits used by ballistic missiles. But a launch scale that is aimed at defeating LoW and for decapitation strike is exceptionally dangerous if there are any miscalculations or anything goes wrong. If it fails, the US will not achieve defeat of LoW and decapitation of political and military leadership case, there would be some equivalent Dead Hand switch in place to launch all missiles.

Clearly China is concerned enough to perform a serious expansion of nuclear forces. Forgoing a well designed and prepared LoW and Dead Hand switch is impossible since these are the most important and easiest aspects to get right compared to the arsenal of weapons, countermeasures, and counter-countermeasures.

Both China and the US rely more on space and sea based early warning sensor networks for this. Cruise missiles have extremely limited range compared to ballistic missiles. If there are dozens of US destroyers and/or cruisers sailing withing even 3000km range of China's coast, not only would they have been detected and tracked ages before that but clearly something is up and planned?

So far the precedent is the US sails as many as up to three CBGs near to China. That's nowhere near enough to launch a few hundred nuclear armed cruise missiles and if as many ships are sailing closer, all nuclear forces have long been at hair trigger alert.

If all your early warning systems are simultaneously shut down or attacked, again it's clear something's up and all nuclear forces are either on hair trigger alert if not ready to launch at the push of a button and within seconds of receiving confirmation commands.

Cruise missiles need to be carried by highly visible/detectable platforms.

Depressed trajectory SLBMs have extremely limited range and the launches are also extremely visible to space based sensors and also still visible to sea based sensors. China will soon have 30 Type 052C and 052D along with 7 Type 055. Type 001 and 002 both have Type 346 based radars. I don't think a single SLBM launch could escape the detection and tracking of even one of those nearly 40 units, each with multiple sets of Type 346x. That's if the many space based sensors are taken out or disrupted somehow (which again indicates imminent attack).

Then you have land based early warning systems if all others fail.

 

[ougoah]

How obvious does sarcasm need to be?

The point isn't "missing" it. How much reaction time will the silo fields have to Tridents being launched from Bohai or just off Jiangsu? The US could try to destroy the silos directly that way or suppress them via high altitude pindown as described while using other weapons like cruise missiles to destroy the incapacitated silos.
Or if a B-21 just launched a bunch of LRSOs at them or something would China even detect that?

B-21 if it's similar to B-2's level of VLO, would be detected far from reaching China's coast. Detecting stealth aircraft at long range hasn't been a problem for over a decade at least. Fire control against stealth aircraft however is a different matter. So detection is not a question. It's done and it remains easy to do until stealth tech changes and improves dramatically.

 

[Hyper]

B-21 if it's similar to B-2's level of VLO, would be detected far from reaching China's coast. Detecting stealth aircraft at long range hasn't been a problem for over a decade at least. Fire control against stealth aircraft however is a different matter. So detection is not a question. It's done and it remains easy to do until stealth tech changes and improves dramatically.

B-21 is more stealthy than the b-2. But everything else is correct.

 

[ougoah]

B-21 is more stealthy than the b-2. But everything else is correct.

What I meant was if the B-21 is based on the same principles of stealth and introduce nothing dramatically revolutionary in stealth technology, then B-21 is as detectable as B-2 to the same technologies used to detect existing VLO.

These things are far from invisible to active and even passive sensors. They are C, S, and X band focused. To some degree also slightly L band LO.

 

[antiterror13]

China has over two dozen ship based "early warning". The older generations of land based early warning radars have been decommissioned and are being replaced but there are plenty of functioning land based ones. I suspect even long range SAM radars are capable of some early warning. Okay depressed trajectory missiles and stealth cruise missiles are much more effective at getting through early warning, particularly through the poles since there are no PLAN Type 346x units covering huge swatches of the airspace and typical orbits used by ballistic missiles. But a launch scale that is aimed at defeating LoW and for decapitation strike is exceptionally dangerous if there are any miscalculations or anything goes wrong. If it fails, the US will not achieve defeat of LoW and decapitation of political and military leadership case, there would be some equivalent Dead Hand switch in place to launch all missiles.

Clearly China is concerned enough to perform a serious expansion of nuclear forces. Forgoing a well designed and prepared LoW and Dead Hand switch is impossible since these are the most important and easiest aspects to get right compared to the arsenal of weapons, countermeasures, and counter-countermeasures.

Both China and the US rely more on space and sea based early warning sensor networks for this. Cruise missiles have extremely limited range compared to ballistic missiles. If there are dozens of US destroyers and/or cruisers sailing withing even 3000km range of China's coast, not only would they have been detected and tracked ages before that but clearly something is up and planned?

So far the precedent is the US sails as many as up to three CBGs near to China. That's nowhere near enough to launch a few hundred nuclear armed cruise missiles and if as many ships are sailing closer, all nuclear forces have long been at hair trigger alert.

If all your early warning systems are simultaneously shut down or attacked, again it's clear something's up and all nuclear forces are either on hair trigger alert if not ready to launch at the push of a button and within seconds of receiving confirmation commands.

Cruise missiles need to be carried by highly visible/detectable platforms.

Depressed trajectory SLBMs have extremely limited range and the launches are also extremely visible to space based sensors and also still visible to sea based sensors. China will soon have 30 Type 052C and 052D along with 7 Type 055. Type 001 and 002 both have Type 346 based radars. I don't think a single SLBM launch could escape the detection and tracking of even one of those nearly 40 units, each with multiple sets of Type 346x. That's if the many space based sensors are taken out or disrupted somehow (which again indicates imminent attack).

Then you have land based early warning systems if all others fail.

When was 3 American CBGs sailed near China coast ? was it during Taiwan strait crisis 1996? I thought it was only 2 CBGs (?)

 

[ougoah]

China has over two dozen ship based "early warning". The older generations of land based early warning radars have been decommissioned and are being replaced but there are plenty of functioning land based ones. I suspect even long range SAM radars are capable of some early warning. Okay depressed trajectory missiles and stealth cruise missiles are much more effective at getting through early warning, particularly through the poles since there are no PLAN Type 346x units covering huge swatches of the airspace and typical orbits used by ballistic missiles. But a launch scale that is aimed at defeating LoW and for decapitation strike is exceptionally dangerous if there are any miscalculations or anything goes wrong. If it fails, the US will not achieve defeat of LoW and decapitation of political and military leadership case, there would be some equivalent Dead Hand switch in place to launch all missiles.

Clearly China is concerned enough to perform a serious expansion of nuclear forces. Forgoing a well designed and prepared LoW and Dead Hand switch is impossible since these are the most important and easiest aspects to get right compared to the arsenal of weapons, countermeasures, and counter-countermeasures.

Both China and the US rely more on space and sea based early warning sensor networks for this. Cruise missiles have extremely limited range compared to ballistic missiles. If there are dozens of US destroyers and/or cruisers sailing withing even 3000km range of China's coast, not only would they have been detected and tracked ages before that but clearly something is up and planned?

So far the precedent is the US sails as many as up to three CBGs near to China. That's nowhere near enough to launch a few hundred nuclear armed cruise missiles and if as many ships are sailing closer, all nuclear forces have long been at hair trigger alert.

If all your early warning systems are simultaneously shut down or attacked, again it's clear something's up and all nuclear forces are either on hair trigger alert if not ready to launch at the push of a button and within seconds of receiving confirmation commands.

Cruise missiles need to be carried by highly visible/detectable platforms.

Depressed trajectory SLBMs have extremely limited range and the launches are also extremely visible to space based sensors and also still visible to sea based sensors. China will soon have 30 Type 052C and 052D along with 7 Type 055. Type 001 and 002 both have Type 346 based radars. I don't think a single SLBM launch could escape the detection and tracking of even one of those nearly 40 units, each with multiple sets of Type 346x. That's if the many space based sensors are taken out or disrupted somehow (which again indicates imminent attack).

Then you have land based early warning systems if all others fail.

I should add that USN SSNs loaded with said cruise missiles would need to be detected while in the water if there are to be early warning on this. It is a blind spot unless Chinese AD and radars are able to pick up on these cruise missile launches and their flight... that's if space based sensors aren't able to detect this.

 

[clockwork]

B-21 if it's similar to B-2's level of VLO, would be detected far from reaching China's coast. Detecting stealth aircraft at long range hasn't been a problem for over a decade at least. Fire control against stealth aircraft however is a different matter. So detection is not a question. It's done and it remains easy to do until stealth tech changes and improves dramatically.

What about the LRSO/similar VLO ALCMs? China can't just launch on warning when it sees B-21s. It has to be able to detect cruise missiles heading toward the fields.

 

[escobar]

What about the LRSO/similar VLO ALCMs? China can't just launch on warning when it sees B-21s. It has to be able to detect cruise missiles heading toward the fields.

Nobody launch on warning but on impact

 

[supercat]

What I want to know is the growth of the mobile force. How many new DF-41 TELs are we inducting.

Well, judging by China's manufacturing prowess, they can easily scale up the production to hundreds a year if they want.

In 2021, China produced a total of about 2.4 million heavy trucks, a decrease of 19 percent compared to 2020. Nevertheless, China produced more than 55 percent of the world's heavy trucks in 2021.

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