China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[Maikeru]

Well you know how these things work. If you don't write some statements to showcase your allegiance, you will never have a platform to share your views.

I still think that there is some good content there. I would be interested to hear from people here what they think about it (please ignore any propaganda garbage inside the analysis)

I thought the middle part - talking about the variables that can cause estimates to change wildly (e.g. Pu per pit), and the Russian estimates -was very interesting. The remainder was the usual partisan bickering (actually taking aim more at the US left than China).

 

[Overbom]

I thought the middle part - talking about the variables that can cause estimates to change wildly (e.g. Pu per pit), and the Russian estimates -was very interesting. The remainder was the usual partisan bickering (actually taking aim more at the US left than China).

Yes, it was the Russian estimates that drew my attention as well (Karber's claim about 3000 nuclear warheads is obviously delusional)

As for the Russian assessments, It was my first time hearing about them, and it seems that both of the Russian Generals estimate that China has 1600 nuclear warheads.

Mind you these assessments were made in 2012

 

[Maikeru]

Yes, it was the Russian estimates that drew my attention as well (Karber's claim about 3000 nuclear warheads is obviously delusional)

As for the Russian assessments, It was my first time hearing about them, and it seems that both of the Russian Generals estimate that China has 1600 nuclear warheads.

Mind you these assessments were made in 2012

I think it is clear that the open source US estimates are likely to be very wide of the mark. I'd love to know what the secret US DoD estimates are.

 

[Insignius]

It's better for China to have the US overestimate China's nuclear arsenal than underestimate it.
Nuclear deterrence is a mind game in the end. You win nothing by hiding your arsenal or telling lies about having only a few nukes. It's not conventional war where you want to hide your troops to conduct surprise attacks. You DONT attack anyone with nukes, ever. China should rather boast that it has one million nukes and that nobody should get close to China or else they all go up somehow. China hiding their nuclear numbers really only shows that it is a sign of utmost weakness, and that China probably doesnt even have 100 nukes for the longest time (I wouldnt be surprised, seeing how xenophile the Deng and Hu era used to be), thereby exposing themselves to even more blackmail attempts.
It's like in the skid row; if you have a gun and muscles, you show them by open carry and wearing a muscle shirt to deter fentanyl zombies from attacking you. If you dont have them, you wear baggy hoodies and hope that nobody mugs you. China has for a long time done the mistake of doing latter instead of former. And see what happened with Taiwan.

 

[Xizor]

splitting the front: in my opinion China should declare that his intermediate and short range force are exclusively conventional, the nukes are only for continental USA. They will split japan and korea from usa nuclear umbrella with this move

What about North Korea? Even if NK didn't exist, none of these countries ( especially JP) will trust China. Both countries have their militaries controlled by US (literally).

Don't expect nor strive for the "world" to trust you. Those who have decided to mistrust will forever mistrust.

 

[Sleepyjam]

It's better for China to have the US overestimate China's nuclear arsenal than underestimate it.
Nuclear deterrence is a mind game in the end. You win nothing by hiding your arsenal or telling lies about having only a few nukes. It's not conventional war where you want to hide your troops to conduct surprise attacks. You DONT attack anyone with nukes, ever. China should rather boast that it has one million nukes and that nobody should get close to China or else they all go up somehow. China hiding their nuclear numbers really only shows that it is a sign of utmost weakness, and that China probably doesnt even have 100 nukes for the longest time (I wouldnt be surprised, seeing how xenophile the Deng and Hu era used to be), thereby exposing themselves to even more blackmail attempts.
It's like in the skid row; if you have a gun and muscles, you show them by open carry and wearing a muscle shirt to deter fentanyl zombies from attacking you. If you dont have them, you wear baggy hoodies and hope that nobody mugs you. China has for a long time done the mistake of doing latter instead of former. And see what happened with Taiwan.

China didn’t have the proper delivery system back them. And there is definitely a situation where one needs to attack with nuclear weapons and that is in retaliation. Not disclosing the numbers made sense when they could only rely on those large liquid fueled missiles.

 

[clockwork]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1462484736673259523

So this is the REAL reason the US freaked out so hard over this test. I was wondering why they were so impressed by a simple intercontinental HGV when the Russians had one deployed already.

 

[escobar]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1462484736673259523

So this is the REAL reason the US freaked out so hard over this test. I was wondering why they were so impressed by a simple intercontinental HGV when the Russians had one deployed already.

This is what Zhao Lijian was saying. Maybe it is not a missile the HGV fired over the SCS but a jettisoned service module...

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[escobar]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1462484736673259523

So this is the REAL reason the US freaked out so hard over this test. I was wondering why they were so impressed by a simple intercontinental HGV when the Russians had one deployed already.

If this thing really fired a missile then it was very impressive technologically. How they release it from a glider at hypersonic speed without destabilizing the glider’s flight ? how does that even work - was the missile itself hypersonic? And this missile could be lots of things : countermeasures against BMD, a reentry hypersonic glider, reentry MARV, a counter-missile missile, antiship MARV/hypersonic glider, anti aircraft missile, sophisticated decoy, space torpedo??

 

[Temstar]

An anti-ABM missile perhaps? If an inceptor is about to intercept the HGV it actually launches a small anti-interceptor missile to destroy the interceptor?