The daft ones and the liberal arts intellectual masturbators have kept repeating stupid lines of 300 warheads based only on paraded missiles and China's "word" from 1980s. They fail to provide this thread with a single reason that measures up, explaining why the CCP wouldn't have built up at least 1000 warheads at least a decade ago. Not a single one but a lot of pseudo intellectual crap we expect from trolls and the non science people who pander and swallow neo liberal propaganda and thinking. "Chyna can't have 1000 warheads because errm umm hmmm yeaahhh China!"
China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread
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Uhhh lol. China could have 10 tons of Pu-239 and we wouldn't know better in fact it could have that much and the US intelligence wouldn't know better simply because it cannot know unless there are 100% leaks from higher ups within the PLA and CCP confirming. The problem with spies is that the information being fed to them aren't necessarily correct. If anything, they probably usually aren't and all of that is just another layer of deception. Everything in war is deception but there are things that cannot and are not put to risk. This is where logic comes in to save us from ignorance... well into a slightly less ignorant state.
We do not know China's fissile reserves. We do not know how many secret or non-secret feeder production facilities exist in China... it could be 5 it could be 50. We do not know how Chinese warhead designs function and how much material is required for the "known" 1 to 10MT yields of smaller MIRV warheads of modern times. We do not know China's true amount of refined material ... the 1.8 to 2.9 tons of Pu-329 converts roughly to 1000 warheads but maybe those Yu Min configurations could use more or less than the assumed average required.
We know China's bare minimum, available right now materials and abilities do not limit China to any less than 1000 warheads. I wouldn't be surprised if China long surpassed 1000 warheads. It never had any reason to say anything except "we don't have much and we are poor and weak". In fact China to this day sort of still plays those lines on occasion just out of habit and the "hide your strength bide your time" philosophy that is innate in Chinese individuals and organisations up to its government. It was and still is national strategic policy!
I agree that the numbers may not be accurate. These numbers came from thermal imagery. Fly a satellite over a Chinese nuclear power plant and record its heat signature. This will allow you to calculate the thermal output of the powerplant and thus the Pu production. However, there are ways to cheat the system (for example, additional cooling structures or reactors hidden from satellites) so the numbers are not necessarily accurate.
However, even if we discard that possibility and focus on the lower numbers themselves, it is hard to believe that China only has 200 warheads. China can produce well over 1000 weapons even with cold war era technology, which is why silos are being constructed now. I think it is more than a shell game. China actually needs more delivery vehicles and the silo project is partially mitigating the problem.
They don't have the interception capability and only have very limited numbers of radar.
They can't get Burkes up into the Arctic due to sea ice and Russian subs, and Burke's will need to be positioned very precisely. THAAD is only terminal interception and does not apply.
Doesn't mean take it lightly but realize that they aren't invincible by any means.
Sorry but reported and admitted serve as a bare minimum. This isn't an area anyone ever wants to advertise strength, especially false strength, so there is absolutely no art of war deception "strategy" here. They have the ability to place Burkes around the Arctic. What makes us so sure the Russians will care? The Russian SSNs even if we assume are enough to wipe out Burke and Tico presence in the Arctic during US and China war doesn't mean they will get involved on China's side at all. Unless you are saying China has 20 or so SSNs in the Arctic, then all that is pish posh nothing. The US have incredibly good BMD and possibly the world's largest collection of modern BMD next to China (I bet China's is insanely high as well due to inexpensive production and industrial capabilities plus matured technology and now about 20 years of it).
US early warning is enough. Each Burke is an early warning platform just like each Type 052C, Type 052D, and Type 055. Oh and every Yuanwan class ship or deep space network potentially just for sea based early warning. If they all malfunction at the same time together, you can bet it's an imminent attack and all on hair trigger launch until systems up to verify either way or SAM radars pick up targets which still gives several minutes for total launch of every asset.
Feeder reactors only and then also only known reactors. China is a BIG place with lots of underground facilities and secret bases. It's also fairly easy to shield your known civilian feeder reactors to prevent those signatures to be obtained to perform any decently accurate estimate on production rates. The estimates regardless make it obvious that China's absolute bare minimum is still probably enough for 1000 warheads of high yield assuminig Yu Min configuration is similarly efficient/wasteful of material use.
Exactly not only is it hard to believe China has 200 or 300 warheads, it is logically bewildering once the reasons for those estimates are listed. Those being literally, China has paraded x number of ICBMs and if we assume 3 to 5 warheads per type of MIRV capable missile then we reach this number, and China hinted to us so in since and really only in the 1980/90s during a time when China had every reason to underplay it and still sort of do for public image but western elites probably get the memo of general range of real numbers.
China doesn't want to publicly announce to the UN it has x. For deterrence, it allows the US intelligence to collect enough info and show them enough to let their leaders know the real number is well above 1000. This allows China to not be condemned in a western led public shaming parade like they always do about how "China is a scary and dangerous threat" and also achieves deterrence because the people who should know, do know.
"estimated", "declared", "thought to be".
This thread is notorious for discussions going in circles. Some members will cite some articles and think tank studies and some others question them and so on and so forth.
China doesn't seem to have any limiting factor regarding production of nuclear material or weapons. If China never increased the number, it can and likely is increasing them after 2015 - respecting a changing geopolitical climate.
Sometimes I come to this thread and wonder if I am a thousand pages behind.
"China has not declared officially that it has ended HEU and plutonium production for weapons, but it is believed to have done so. Production of HEU was stopped in 1987 and that of plutonium by about 1990."
Very, very doubtful.
Article then goes on to say this to contradict itself.
"China has produced highly enriched uranium (HEU) for weapons in two complexes: the Lanzhou gaseous diffusion plant (Plant 504) and the Heping gaseous diffusion plant (Plant 814). It also used these enrichment plants to produce HEU for its research reactors and LEU for naval reactors. The Heping plant continues to operate."
So production stopped in 1987 (LOL!) and then the known plant continues to operate presumably for research reactors and supply of HEU but what is stopping just this one known plant to produce material for weapons? It's the same material and this also shows it didn't stop producing HEU in 1987 regardless of how the produced HEU can be used.
It's imbecilic to think China stopped HEU and refined plutonium just because China says it did. Sort of like it would have been very stupid of a Cold War adversary to think the other stopped BMD development and production when they agreed to certain treaties. History shows neither of them really abided by their agreements and promises. In China's case, it didn't even make promises or sign agreements that specifically restricted their refinement efforts and put a stop to weapon production and all in a time when the US has not and clearly presenting itself as adversarial.
The mind boggles to think how many morons out there put stock into these sorts of laughably obvious placation efforts. Which this article reflects upon! China's placation efforts from the 1980s. Say this say that nod your head but respect reality and the changing geopolitics.
If you read the very first sentence, China actually didn't even say anything.
They literally just made it up.
I just assumed at best it would be information they gleaned from Chinese words of placation from the 1980s and 1990s when it didn't want to make it seem like it had any interest in defending itself from the USA, the world's most belligerent and war loving nation, one where its MIC has immense lobby, financial, and political power. One which CCP even back in the 1980s understood to be totally a hegemonic power and would tolerate no peer. After all, the Chinese studied the Cold War, they fought the Korean war, and the US was always supporting the KMT's holding of Taiwan. Of course today, the KMT are much less anti-CCP than they once were. Nearly full circle.
Like no shit sherlock. The CCP knew what the US is like and there is laughable chance it stopped making nuclear weapons in the 1990s. Insanity and typical journo/ neo liberal self assuring bs.
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