Nuclear stock estimation by Federation of American Scientist
View attachment 77937
These are only confirmed missiles/launchers. Sort of like thinking PLAAF only has 30 J-20s because only 30 unique serials have been counted.
As said, 350 is the bottom minimum number of active warheads. 270 warhead count does not include DF-41, latest DF-5, or JL-3. 350 itself is a bare minimum and a totally impossible one.
For one thing we know there should be A LOT more than 10 DF-5A/B around. I mean there are nearly 200 known silo sites just for DF-5 missiles and entire networks of underground tunnels for the sole purpose of launching long range ICBMs. Even if constructed silos are only half used and ignoring tunnels and DF-31 and DF-41, that is nearly 500 warheads just in DF-5 missiles assuming 5 MIRV each.
China has paraded 16 DF-41 TELs in single parades. You don't let 16/18 of your DF-41 TELs join a parade along with allegedly half of your DF-5s. No country parades half their entire nuclear force's at least launch platforms in case they need to be used at moments notice. There is zero point in parading more than a tiny fraction of your forces. The number exceeding one is just for visual effect and only would be done if it is to make a statement. The statement with 16 DF-41 just for a parade is to say we have more than 160 (just an arbitrary example to make the point). You also don't make more TELs than you have DF-41s. The number is as close to if not 1:1 TEL to missile.
There should be some guesstimate minimum DF-41 in the multiple dozens, there should be at least 100 DF-5s (intended short term goal) just going by how many known silos there are and being constructed. Just those two missiles alone would account for about nearly 1000 warheads. Then there's the 10 other missile types from SRBM to IRBM and SLBM and many of them (even let's say 20% only) all require nuclear warheads. That's roughly another 1000 warheads if not much more.
It's not hard for China to build hundreds of long ranged ICBMs alone. This being done over 20 years is a trivial matter. This is the first and biggest line of defence. China cannot hope to talk to the US on an even power footing without at least 1000 nukes and yet Chinese politicians are 100% confident they are not only on an even footing, every Chinese action indicates they are sure they are on a superior footing than the US. Chinese side ignores the US and makes demands on the US in stark contrast to 5 or even 10 years ago... They also publicly tell the US that they know the US knows (lol) they are no longer a more powerful entity. That to me suggests they already know the American leaders understand the dynamic between the two is far from what is presented to the public. That being China has risen 20 years ago and it is only still carrying a low profile but it exceeds the US in many ways it cares to compare and they all know it. It is so convincing the Chinese side barely even bothers hiding it these days. This cannot even be considered unless China has a minimum ability for MAD and that minimum is at 1000 warheads with corresponding number of advanced missiles. Not 300. The US would have nuked China if China only has 300 warheads.
A single USN AB class can carry more SM-3 interceptors than supposed number of Chinese ICBMs. This should show us that Chinese nuclear reserves are in reality many, MANY fold larger than what is known and what is indicated by China itself over 30 years ago. Do you honestly think the CCP is okay for 30 years or more with the fact that a single Burke class can shoot down the entire Chinese nuclear arsenal? Or perhaps the US is treating China as an equal and the biggest threat because it cannot so easily counter it and because China's real nuclear arsenal size is far closer to being a third of the US rather than one tenth. Let's remind ourselves that China has in reality a larger real economy than the US and more than four times as many people, producing these missiles and warheads could easily be done to exceed both the US and Russia combined if the desire or need is there. China has no limit on nuclear material to more or less match the US. Just domestic reserves. No limit on enrichment technology since the 1970s either. Why on earth would China's leaders have been okay with 300 warheads?
