China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

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Godzilla

Junior Member
Registered Member
Well, they could still be called Dong Feng!
There are actually Dong Fang wind turbines ;) (Dong Fang electrical, one of the big boys)
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But anyone has seen any August satellite over the YuMen area? Figure cure time for concrete would be around 30 days, so if it is wind turbines they would be pretty close to erecting the towers by now.
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
Look like China want to divert all American nuclear warhead to strike empty desert. I believe all the silo in the desert is 2/3 empty. This is all about deception to deceive satellites. Build more silos is easier than make a missile. If china turns all the Xinjiang, Tibetan, and inner Mongolian's desert into the massive silo complex, the US will waste more warhead to strike empty silo. This is why China's bigger geography is more important. And China still has so many bigger mountain ranges like Tianshan, Kunlun, Qinling mountain range to hide all the missile silo. Nuclear weapon is ineffective to penetrate mountains.

This would 100% be part of the strategy. Have a proportion serving only as decoy sites. Decoy silos are surely faster and cheaper to build. China already has dozens of actual DF-5 silos if you increase that to 1000 silos but you cannot be sure which ones contain missiles, it would be impossible to not expend more missiles. China is still massively expanding nuclear arsenal to match Russia's and USA's. Who on earth would think it wouldn't? It just needs a dozen or so Type 096 with Type 095 escorts with HGV equipped JL-3. H-20 completing it would provide China with the world's best nuclear triad. Along with Russia it already has the best HGV delivered nukes and TELs. At least with the assumption that H-20 would be more modern a strategic stealth bomber than B-2 and JL-3 with HGV delivering nukes would be superior to now fairly antique minutemans and tridents. Of course the Americans have the resources and people to upgrade theirs to the latest delivery systems and standards too.

China's population is 1400 million people. USA 330 million. Russia 145 million. China has nearly 10 times the Russian population size and indeed has 10 times the nominal wealth. What's more, China's reserve of foreign currencies are many times Russia's. China's RMB is devalued, making its true economic size that much greater than nominal. It has real industries rather than banking. Well it has banking too and perform the same tricks the Americans do except it has greater savings and industries that are more resilient to economic woes so long as they are competitive.

China would be justified in having a nuclear force that is Russia's and USA's put together and more. It's not expensive. It's not difficult for China and it comes with the benefit of guaranteeing nobody would even consider invading. Conventional war would be very limited for fear of triggering nuclear exchanges. NATO wouldn't think of touching Russia, they won't even touch Russian interests outside of Russia.

New missiles, new warheads, new configurations materials warhead physics etc, new HGVs, new submarines, get it all up and running. The US would have no option other than non stop running with its mouth. Moaning about the good old days.
 
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ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
Silos aren’t cheap

They are relatively cheap for what they represent. They are cheaper than buildings and if you only have buildings, the Americans quickly come demanding you hand them the keys to everything otherwise they'll knock it all down. Silos keep those bastards away.

Decoy silos are even cheaper. You do not actually need to do much work for decoy silos. It's just the surface that require attention and make sure you give the satellites a good show. For some decoys the depth needs to be correct and you do need to put a cannister in. SAR satellites can do wonders these days. Well the Chinese SAR satellites can. No doubt the Americans having done it sooner would have some abilities in helping figure out which silos are legit. Low end decoy silos work against some, not against others. You can have a mix of full functional or full depth decoys and a mix of surface only.

The silos could also be totally functional but unarmed with missiles. There could be a new DF-5 ranged ICBM for new silos who knows.

The conversation in China a year or two ago was not so much discussing whether the nuclear expansion is necessary or not. As soon as the US policy shifted on China around 2017, the writing was on the wall. The Chinese leaders saw it and seem to have put some plans into action as soon as it became clear the US would be redirecting all their psyops firepower on China. Stupid and naive Chinese were talking about whether or not nuclear expansion is necessary as some here have also made hopeless arguments for keeping warheads around 300. Well the people actually working on China's nuclear program hinted that expansion was always only waiting for new generation of weapons. Why build more DF-41 using old warhead designs and nuclear weapons when you are about to put HGVs on the majority of intercontinental ranged missiles? Why use old warhead designs and weapons when new ones are available. Extreme radiation weapons like neutron bombs are old news. There must be far more effective and destructive world enders available for the top three nuclear nations. The others certainly aren't staying still, old warheads on new HGVs? I don't think so. Would you put an old diesel truck engine you used in the past into your newly developed sports car?

I suspect that new weapons, warheads, delivery systems are all ready and completed, hence the rapid expansions now. Rumours of new silo based ICBM. HGV equipped ICBMs (actually an old rumour already). JL-3 being tested and Type 094 changes.
 

Totoro

Major
VIP Professional
What if they really are just wind farms?
The distance between sites is too big. Even if spacing of 10 times the prop diameter is used, which is rarely used for wind farms, the spacing seen in the new fields is still bigger. And land based wind farms don't have that big of diameters compared to sea based farms.
Of course time will tell, but right now I would say windfarms are looking less likely.
 

Broccoli

Senior Member
Silos aren’t cheap

Probably cheaper in a long run than what TEL convoy costs and per missile needs far less people to operate. 10 silo based DF-41 missiles can operated by two guys in a bunker with ready launch posture while road mobile needs TEL itself, support trucks, communication trucks, security detail in armored cars, more time to launch the missile if the order comes.
 

caohailiang

Junior Member
Registered Member
Probably cheaper in a long run than what TEL convoy costs and per missile needs far less people to operate. 10 silo based DF-41 missiles can operated by two guys in a bunker with ready launch posture while road mobile needs TEL itself, support trucks, communication trucks, security detail in armored cars, more time to launch the missile if the order comes.
1, in terms of survivability under nuclear first strike, it is not a 1:1 ratio between TEL and missile silo, so when comparing cost you cannot do a 1:1 comparison either.

2, Of course the above statement is based on the assumption that China only use those missiles in secondary strike scenario, maybe adopting LOW. But LOW is very problematic in terms of false alarm, why they would go for such a posture ? the calculation here is fascinating.

3, in light of this unprecedented silo build up, one has to ask, maybe China will abandon NFU policy altogether and try to use these missiles to deter conventional attack.
 
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