China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[Richard Santos]

jse; No way US would launch nuclear attack on China through the poles.

me; why not? Russia won't provide China with any messages saying hey btw maybe you should know there are hundreds/thousands of missiles coming at "us" through the north pole and they seem to be heading to eastern Sibera. China also has no Type 055 or 052C/D near the border with Mongolia to warn China. It barely has land based early warning because most of China's land based BMD/ASAT and long range AD missiles are in the east and south.

RS; well you're wrong because it's logical and easy to tell the intended target of pole passing missiles based on industry centres.

lol you don't say. Does that prove anything? I feel the main point has been missed.

If a polar attack over Russia against China proper is likely to be most effective as a stroke in a nuclear war, the only reason why the US would not do it is if the attack may be mistaken by Russia as an attack against Russia, and prompt an retaliatory strike by the large Russian arsenal.

A polar attack over Russia against China has little chance of being mistaken by Russia for a attack against Russia, therefore the US would launch such an attack in a nuclear war against China proper

If such an attack is launched and detected, then Russia would almost certainly warn China promptly. But even a prompt warning is not likely to change the fact that such an attack would be effective, given american preponderance in nuclear firepower. But it may reduce the effect somewhat, and allow China to make the US pay a heavier price for launching such an attack.

 

[ougoah]

If a polar attack over Russia against China proper is likely to be most effective as a stroke in a nuclear war, the only reason why the US would not do it is if the attack may be mistaken by Russia as an attack against Russia, and prompt an retaliatory strike by the large Russian arsenal.

True but there are many gaps. I for one would not be so comfortably relying on "oh Russia should help us out or at least definitely won't and will never cooperate with the US for any imaginable reason". None of those things are absolutely certain. In fact very far from certain if the US communicate their insistence and coordinate deals with Russia. Remember this isn't necessarily thousands of nukes maybe just hundreds or even dozens to completely devastate and decapitate China. I would NOT put it past the US at all. They've done sneaky and unthinkable things in the past and if Russia has little choice in the matter...

Like you yourself said earlier, it would be rather easy for Russia to tell where transpolar missiles are headed. Not only from their trajectory which is in itself a total giveaway, it would also be the fact that those missiles aren't going towards western Russia where any real intended nuclear first strike on Russia 100% would be heading. Therefore, missiles flying to Siberia through the north pole could realistically only be intended for China. Then we also haven't considered the fact that the US may simply alert Russia right before launch which FURTHER prevents Russia from misinterpreting the targets of those missiles.

A polar attack over Russia against China has little chance of being mistaken by Russia for a attack against Russia, therefore the US would launch such an attack in a nuclear war against China proper

Egggsactly. Which makes it so perplexing why jse thinks the exact opposite.

If such an attack is launched and detected, then Russia would almost certainly warn China promptly.

Again I think there are enough gaps to doubt the "certainly" part. anything that isn't 100% is not certain and this is FARRR from 100%

But even a prompt warning is not likely to change the fact that such an attack would be effective, given american preponderance in nuclear firepower. But it may reduce the effect somewhat, and make the US suffer a heavier price for launching such an attack.

Yes and I don't doubt this. Yet IFF the US were to go down this path anyway regardless of all that, it would have far more success transpolar than it would through the equator. I mean this is bloody obvious.

 

[ougoah]

The number of Chinese SLBMs, SSBNs, TEL and underground ICBMs, are main source of deterrence China currently have against such an action from the US which I would bet is something they really desperately want to do if there were no consequences on them (these are the king of the easy way out bastards). The US Anglo elites have a God complex. They feel they are well and truly many levels above others. Chinese socialists do not carry any such notion even if some of Chinese culture and people promote a superiority complex, they have zero desire to do harm. Western culture is the opposite. China does trade and diplomacy against a hierachy of civilisation (basically respecting advanced ones and feeling superior to less advanced ones) whereas the west is about conquest, rape, pillage, and plunder back then it was through a gun and now it's through propaganda, brainwashing, and soft power coercion the very thing they blame China of. Everything is justified and they feel absolute entitlement. Not all western peoples certainly but their elites and their policy do reveal all this to all fair minded and well informed observers this is beyond obvious from the colonialism of India to north and south Americas and how those people were treated.

Chinese civilisation and culture is much less inclined to do harm and evil (it is still capable of and has done that) than compared to the West at any point in history. The west just changed the way it conducts this. Well it's easy to change once you've taken everything and you're the new rich that continues to suck the rest of the world dry from talented people to resources.

So yes. The Anglo US elite will nuke China if it can do it safely, feel it's justified and they are in their right because they are both God's chosen special folks and ubermensch while Chinese are Uighur jailing inferiors that are beginning to challenge their right to the entire world and their right do act and do as they see fit to all peoples. A flick of a pen and every standard can be re-interpreted according to their desire. We all see plenty of this.

All the psychological hate and prepping is done. Well for enough people so that no nation would talk twice about it. This is their plan and their ultimate desire to remove challengers. Russia is much less so because it has fewer people and less potential to resist compared to China today but rest assured it would be done in time. China can capitulate and hand over the keys or they continue and struggle against this great evil. The only thing that ensures this path isn't taken is if China stockpiles enough warheads that even detonating them on Chinese soil will ensure global destruction. Russia and US both have enough to do just that and it's pocket change for China to get there within 20 years. At the moment, it keeps around a measly basic deterrence but the number of early warning, AD, BMD, and mobile high yield, long range weapons are enough to make them think twice. In time, they would develop effective counters so numbers and technology must keep pace. There should be no doubt that the US will consider these options. They did it to Japan more or less for fun (could have demonstrated nearby for example rather than incinerating civilians). They considered it during the Korean war and if it wasn't for Soviet nuclear umbrella, they may even have gone ahead with it. Luckily China managed to finish developing the fission weapon then as well.

 

[Richard Santos]

Again, the certainty of Russia warning China is high because Russia has no real chance of remaining a great power for long unless it manages to triangulate between the US and China. If either falls, Russia will be reduced by the other to a rump within a couple of decades. So Russia has not interest in allowing either side to deliver a severe blow against the other without repercussion. So Russia has no interest in letting US launch a more successful attack against China, particularly if the US otherwise also have an upper hand.

 

[voyager1]

Again, the certainty of Russia warning China is high because Russia has no real chance of remaining a great power for long unless it manages to triangulate between the US and China. If either falls, Russia will be reduced by the other to a rump within a couple of decades. So Russia has not interest in allowing either side to deliver a severe blow against the other without repercussion. So Russia has no interest in letting US launch a more successful attack against China, particularly if the US otherwise also have an upper hand.

isn't Russia currently helping China build a missile attack early warning system?

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“Russia is helping China to build a missile attack warning system that could significantly increase China's defense capabilities,” a commentary in the semi-official Global Times newspaper said Wednesday as part of an article on China-Russia defence cooperation following the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) contingent participation in the June 25 Russian Victory Day Parade.

 

[ougoah]

Again, the certainty of Russia warning China is high because Russia has no real chance of remaining a great power for long unless it manages to triangulate between the US and China. If either falls, Russia will be reduced by the other to a rump within a couple of decades. So Russia has not interest in allowing either side to deliver a severe blow against the other without repercussion. So Russia has no interest in letting US launch a more successful attack against China, particularly if the US otherwise also have an upper hand.

Yeah high certainty is literally an oxymoron. Certainty means 100% there is no such thing as high certainty. But I understand what you mean and high probability still isn't good enough for something this important.

China needs early warning facing north. Placed as far north as possible and layers of redundancy - Russian tech based and Chinese tech based. Diversity of basic types cover potential gaps in method. Basically a means of disrupting the Chinese one may not work for the Russian one because they have significant enough differences. Just like something being able to jam one type of radar may not work as well against a very different type. Of course early warning is going to be very much converging on a set of engineering principles so there are going to be a lot of commonalities between American, Russian, Chinese, European etc types,

The important bit is to have advanced enough and reliable enough early warning so that the maximum number of missiles and warheads can be launched. The other side of this deterrence is the number and technology - penetration, survivability, yield, reliability of delivery systems and warheads. More SSBNs, more long ranged BMs with HGVs and MaRVs, more advanced EW ECM ECCM and so on.

 

[Richard Santos]

The number of Chinese SLBMs, SSBNs, TEL and underground ICBMs, are main source of deterrence China currently have against such an action from the US which I would bet is something they really desperately want to do if there were no consequences on them (these are the king of the easy way out bastards). The US Anglo elites have a God complex. They feel they are well and truly many levels above others. Chinese socialists do not carry any such notion even if some of Chinese culture and people promote a superiority complex, they have zero desire to do harm. Western culture is the opposite. China does trade and diplomacy against a hierachy of civilisation (basically respecting advanced ones and feeling superior to less advanced ones) whereas the west is about conquest, rape, pillage, and plunder back then it was through a gun and now it's through propaganda, brainwashing, and soft power coercion the very thing they blame China of. Everything is justified and they feel absolute entitlement. Not all western peoples certainly but their elites and their policy do reveal all this to all fair minded and well informed observers this is beyond obvious from the colonialism of India to north and south Americas and how those people were treated.

So yes. The Anglo US elite will nuke China, feel it's justified and they are in their right because they are both God's chosen special folks and ubermensch while Chinese are Uighur jailing inferiors that are beginning to challenge their right to the entire world and their right do act and do as they see fit to all peoples. A flick of a pen and every standard can be re-interpreted according to their desire. We all see plenty of this.

All the psychological hate and prepping is done. Well for enough people so that no nation would talk twice about it. This is their plan and their ultimate desire to remove challengers. Russia is much less so because it has fewer people but rest assured it would be done in time. China can capitulate and hand over the keys or they continue and struggle against this great evil. The only thing that ensures this path isn't taken is if China stockpiles enough warheads that even detonating them on Chinese soil will ensure global destruction. Russia and US both have enough to do just that and it's pocket change for China to get there within 20 years. At the moment, it keeps around a measly basic deterrence but the number of early warning, AD, BMD, and mobile high yield, long range weapons are enough to make them think twice. In time, they would develop effective counters so numbers and technology must keep pace. There should be no doubt that the US will consider these options. They did it to Japan more or less for fun (could have demonstrated nearby for example rather than incinerating civilians). They considered it during the Korean war and if it wasn't for Soviet nuclear umbrella, they may even have gone ahead with it. Luckily China managed to finish developing the fission weapon then as well.

You are much too melodramatic. The “Anglo elite” feel justified in doing what any hegemon who believe it is within his power to do, would do. That is to seek to extend his hegemony by using any means necessary to forestall any perceived serious threat to his hegemony.

If you let the complexity and deviousness of your opponent’s methods obscure the simplicity of his ends, then you can never properly anticipate his moves.

 

[ougoah]

You are much too melodramatic. The “Anglo elite” feel justified in doing what any hegemon who believe it is within his power to do, would do. That is to seek to extend his hegemony by using any means necessary to forestall any perceived serious threat to his hegemony.

If you let the complexity and deviousness of your opponent’s methods obscure the simplicity of his ends, then you can never properly anticipate his moves.

So you basically agree then. You just dressed it up as a justification. I didn't comment on whether or not it is right for them to do so. I simply said this is something they have every interest and intention to do if they could do it "safely". This you basically agree with except you feel the need to say "China or anyone else would be the same"... ummm well okay but that wasn't the point was it. The point is that Chinese planners need to understand they have every intention to destroy China if given half a chance. They may even adjust what they consider to be "safe" and be more okay with taking hits.

China has no desire to go on the offensive. Every bit of offensive has been initiated and propelled by the west against China from trade war to bio warfare (the experts and they've been doing this around the world quite a few times since handing native Americans smallpox laden blankets as fake gestures of kindness) to tech warfare, sanctions, embargoes, slanderous propaganda campaigns etc. China has not once initiated conflict. It doesn't need to.

In two generations time, China's surpassing the US is all but assured if there are no disruptions. They are making sure the disruptions already start now. In two generations time the majority of China will be out of poverty and educated while having the basic infrastructure and equipment to make good use of a large educated population. They will have a decent consumer economy and opportunities within (even if external factors are cut out) to further science and tech progress. In two generations the US will have even wider resource gap and even closer to civil war, social collapse if their ways aren't changed and their elites aren't so lacking in decency and compassion - happy to spent trillions on wars that go nowhere and use up the lives of the poor and the stupid on nothing. A great proportion of liberal arts majors, even fewer imported talents, drug addicts, entitled morons, sensitive apes who are good at trashtalking and roundabout time wasting conversations. Not as many engineers and scientists, not as much financial wealth or share of. No longer the culture that took them to the moon. Much less the landscape. China wins if the US does nothing. They are just rounding up their allies on this campaign and beginning to prime the press. It will only get worse and noisier.

Is it any surprise that since a few years ago (when the heat really started and they diverted attention from Russia to China), that China is openly talking about increasing nuclear deterrence and showing more than they usually do? China felt need to show capability and improve its deterrence. If Chinese planners and leaders have only recently started increasing missiles and stockpiles, then they are terrible leaders. They should have done this 10 to 20 years ago as this was almost too easy to predict back then. I'm fairly confident that Chinese leaders have started this 20 years ago and that China's warhead stockpile is easily beyond 1000. Again all the evidence is given in this thread and one would genuinely need to be stupid to ignore the ample logical evidence. Anyway, it's my personal opinion that this is still not enough. China deserves and should have at least as much of a world ending deterrence as any nation on this planet (which means at least equal to what the US and Russia both wield).

 

[james smith esq]

Again, tho’ I can’t cite a reference, I’ve read that it takes 3 warheads targeted at a single silo to “probably” neutralize it. This is what leads me to believe that the US’s SLBMs are their first-strike component. Using this calculus, 7 Ohio class loaded to the hilt could effectively target -784 silo-based missiles (a number that no country’s arsenal is even close to approaching), leaving another 7 Ohio’s and -400 Minuteman III silo-based ICBMs for second and subsequent strikes. That’s almost incomprehensibly destructive power.

It’s this preponderance of US SLBMs (and their capacity to mount 14 100 kt [silo-busting] warheads) that disinclines me to consider a silo-based ICBM force as a primary deterrent to US first-strike strategies.

Additionally, we might consider that the most-likely vector of any US first-strike against China would certainly not be a trans-polar route, but a trans-equatorial one. The US would certainly not launch an attack against China in such a way as to alert Russian air-defense systems and risk a Russian response.

Despite what other (long-winded) commentators might think is obvious, which is most-certainly avoided in military strategy and tactics, this observation stands.

Ain’t it funny, tho’ that some lil’ girl can presume to tell me what the subject of my post that she hijacked is? Well, she can join her sister on that list. Y’all know which one!

 

[voyager1]

The point is that Chinese planners need to understand they have every intention to destroy China if given half a chance.

Yes

China has no desire to go on the offensive

IMO China is too focused on defence. They should focus on offense and creating various deterrence economical, militarily, tech, diplomatical tools.

China due to its own reasons has avoided getting too close to other countries and spreading its influence. I bet that this will cost it in the future. Anyway, thats a big discussion more suited for another thread

China wins if the US does nothing

Yes

If Chinese planners and leaders have only recently started increasing missiles and stockpiles, then they are terrible leaders. They should have done this 10 to 20 years ago as this was almost too easy to predict back then. I'm fairly confident that Chinese leaders have started this 20 years ago and that China's warhead stockpile is easily beyond 1000.

Your optimistic scenario about 1000 warheads is still too low. IMO Chinese leaders have miscalculated

China deserves and should have at least as much of a world ending deterrence as any nation on this planet (which means at least equal to what the US and Russia both wield).

Yes