Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
If they can add decoy then they can add warhead because it meant that they have design for small diameter warhead. What prevent them from doing it ?
China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread
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Yes, China has the largest uranium deposit but what need for perfect miniaturization of the warhead is plutonium Pu-239. Plutonium is harder to make and it is lighter than uranium u235. I doubt US intelligence can detect if China produces more weapon-grade plutonium.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
That is not true according to story Some one throw a nuclear warhead sketch to American embassy in Warsaw and they found out it is almost identical to W88 warhead design and It cause US to witch hun Wen Ho Lee a Taiwanese engineer working in Los alamos lab
In April 1999, President Clinton stated that the PRC had fewer than two dozen long-range nuclear weapons, compared to 6,000 in the U.S. arsenal. Nevertheless, some were concerned that China was developing a new DF-31 solid-fuel, mobile intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), with a range of about 5,000 miles, reportedly with a smaller warhead (700 kg; 1,500 lb.) than the current DF-5A ICBMs. In addition, China reportedly had programs to develop a next-generation JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) and a longer-range ICBM.
This controversy about the W-88 warhead raised policy issues about whether U.S. security was further threatened by the PRC's suspected use of U.S. nuclear weapon secrets in its development of smaller nuclear warheads and new ICBMs, as well as whether the Administration's response to the security problem was effective or mishandled and whether it fairly used or abused its investigative and prosecuting authority. The case also raised questions about the roles of the media and Congress.
On May 25, 1999, the House’s Cox Committee reported that China stole classified information on the W88 and six other U.S. nuclear warheads. On June 15, 1999, the President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board (PFIAB) called the Department of Energy a “dysfunctional bureaucracy” and urged the creation of a semi-autonomous or independent agency to oversee nuclear weapons. In September 1999, Congress passed the FY2000 National Defense Authorization Act to create a National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) within DOE on March 1, 2000.
As one result of the W-88 case, the FBI investigated a Taiwan-born U.S. scientist at the Los Alamos lab, Wen Ho Lee. He was never charged with espionage. In December 1999, the Justice Department indicted Lee on 59 felony counts for mishandling nuclear weapons information (not classified at the time). Lee was jailed without bail until a plea agreement on September 13, 2000, when he pleaded guilty to one count of mishandling national defense information (for making copies of his computer files). The judge apologized to Lee. Meanwhile, in April 1999, the FBI expanded its counterintelligence investigation beyond the focus on Los Alamos, and in 2000, the probe shifted to missile secrets and to the Defense Department. In April 2003, an ex-FBI agent, James Smith, and his informant, Katrina Leung, were arrested for allegedly mishandling national defense information related to China.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Here is British mirv SLMB
1. According to article by Lewis(2014):
"China’s most modern warhead, for the DF-31 and other solid-fuelled ballistic missiles, probably weighs about 500kg and may have a yield of about 500kt. This warhead is too large for China to place multiple warheads on its solid-fuelled ballistic missiles, but China might place two or three such warheads on its DF-5 ICBMs. China would face difficulty in developing a smaller nuclear warhead without testing. Despite having vastly better computers today, China can draw upon data from only 45 nuclear tests, many of which were conducted before the reform and modernisation of China’s science and technology base started by Deng Xiaoping. Chinese nuclear-weapons designers appear to have been relatively conservative in their designs."
2. China's nuclear warhead design is too heavy. W88 estimated yield of 475 kilotons weight only 175kg.
"China could design smaller warheads, although these would not have the benefit of explosive testing, which China stopped in 1996 after signing the CTBT. Given the limited number of designs in China’s arsenal and the small number of tests to provide benchmark data, China would probably struggle to develop warheads in the challenging design space of a few hundred kilotonnes of yield with a few hundred kilogrammes of RV mass, as the US has done with the thermonuclear W76 warhead. China would sacrifice significant yield, reliability or both."
3. Even China has supercomputers now but still useless without real testing data. Even country advanced like US which at that time has powerful supercomputer and has 1000 nuclear testing data is afraid to make warhead design without real testing.
" US nuclear-weapons designers have been reluctant to rely on designs that were not tested. "
4. US intelligence also supports it.
"The US intelligence community assesses that all of China’s solid-fuelled missiles carry only a single warhead. China would face many challenges in developing smaller warheads without testing, because it is accepted that the greatest design challenge is to create thermonuclear warheads that weigh less than 200kg while retaining an efficient yield-to-weight ratio (in the 0.5–1.5 range)."
" Yield-to-weight ratios for modern US thermonuclear weapons range from about 0.6 to 1.5kt per kilogramme, with favourable yield-to-weight ratios being easier to achieve at higher yields. "
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
This is bull China tested mirv back in 2016 You cannot lie on this because the US (NORAD) can track those warheads as it plunged to atmosphere. You cannot verify the size of Chinese nuclear stockpile. But you can certainly verify Chinese missile capability.
China has extensive nuclear testing from 1960 to 1996 enough data base to use it for computer simulation. Nobody use nuclear explosion to test nuclear warhead design today. Everything is done using computer simulation . And China has plenty of supercomputer and whiz kid to design program verification for nuclear warhead design.
You are living in alternate world!. I don't know which US intelligence said that or maybe US intelligence only exist in your head
China conducted another flight test of its newest and longest-range intercontinental ballistic missile last week amid growing tensions with the United States over the South China Sea.
Pentagon officials told the Free Beacon the flight test of the new road-mobile DF-41 missile took place Tuesday with two multiple, independently targetable reentry vehicles, or MIRVs, that were monitored in flight by U.S. military satellites and other regional sensors.
Officials did not say where the test took place. Past DF-41 launches were carried out from the Wuzhai Missile and Space Test Center in central China.
The latest flight test followed an earlier, rail-based canister of a DF-41 on Dec. 5.
U.S. Strategic Command commander Adm. Cecil Haney said Jan. 22 that China’s multiple warhead missiles are part of a significant investment in both nuclear and conventional forces.
"China is re-engineering its long-range ballistic missiles to carry multiple nuclear warheads," Haney said in a speech.
The flight test came around the same time that a high-ranking Chinese general made an unusual visit to a disputed South China Sea island. Also, the missile test occurred three days before Defense Secretary Ash Carter visited the aircraft carrier USS Stennis as it sailed in the South China Sea.
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Hmm, I think putting SSBNs of the coast of northern NK is actually moot. Because already above NK itself, is the vast Chinese region of Manchuria where DF-41s are fielded. In fact, this is traditionally one of the regions where China places its ICBMs due to it being one of the most optimal places to strike the CONUS.
Equally unrealistic. If China really wanted an optimum overseas base for its SSBNs. The best would be at the Russian coasts near the Arctic circle where the Russians like to operate their own SSBNs. I just don't see this happening. Its like China asking Russia to allow basing Chinese ICBMs in Russian territory. Not politically feasible.
So launching SLBMs near the Chinese coast, or sneaking SSBNs through the FIC remains the most realistic options for China. Hence the 12000km-ranged JL-3 missiles are key to this strategy.
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MIRV also can also probably be decoy. The decoy can also look like warhead itself but without an actual warhead. They designed to have the same radar characteristics as the warhead which can confuse an enemy's missile defense systems. That's why US nowdays deploy more advanced military satellite to differentiate decoy and actual warhead so that can increase the chance to hit actual target.
US deploy advanced military satellite:
No, the data is not enough and at that time also lack of equipment. How you want to record data without equipment and supercomputer.
"Despite having vastly better computers today, China can draw upon data from only 45 nuclear tests, many of which were conducted before the reform and modernisation of China’s science and technology base started by Deng Xiaoping. Chinese nuclear-weapons designers appear to have been relatively conservative in their designs."
Even China now has supercomputer, how you want to integrate past data and future data? Plutonium fissioning is complicated.
Only improve missile but not warhead. You can modified missile for as long as you want but can't improve warhead without worldwide sanction like north korea.
It can be decoy or actual warhead. Decoy is lighter.
Probably add more booster because of heavy warhead and to increase its range.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
There is no satellite that I know can differentiate between decoy and real warhead that is why they experiment with multiple kill vehicle But the program was cancelled So keep your BS
AS I said before if they can miniature the warhead nothing can prevent them to put it on the missile why it has to be decoy If you can put 10 warhead then you only need 3 decoy and the rest is warhead.
You don't need computer to record blast from the nuclear warhead or measure energy from it China certainly has all the instrument to measure nuclear warhead. How else can they know the blast energy from nuclear blast.They don't have to manufacture the instrument themselves. They can buy it on the open market in Japan thru Hongkong, routed the purchase thru 3rd country. I guess you must be indian or ignorant to not know about it.
I guess you are also ignorant about simulation .Simulation mean using mathematical model to approximate real world. But sometime the mathematical model need adjustment by using parameter or coefficient to correlate with the real world. This where the data from previous test come handy. So 45 test result is plenty to model the bomb. The mathematical model for uncontrolled nuclear explosion is well know.
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They can actually and we never know US secret ability. The real warhead is denser and heavier and probably emits a bit of radiation. They probably have the technology to differentiate it. That's why they keep deploying military satellite. It's not really impossible to do so.
They already using a helicopter over Washington dc to detect radiation. They will do in space too.
No, they don't. They probably have instruments but not as advance as the US or Russia and really need a supercomputer to record the blast. It's not just about measure energy.
No way.
I am not indian and I provide source. You don't.
Simulation needs data.
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