China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[rambo54]

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

I've tried to calculate the dimensions of the missile containers using this image. Of course, resolution is low so some figures aren't precise. Especially width of containers. (I am getting 9 pixels for JL2, 10 pixels for DF31AG and 11 pixels for DF41) So measurements may easily be off by a few decimeters or even close to half a meter.

Anyway, my measurements are these:
JL2: 12.5 by 2.5 meters
DF-31AG: 15.5 by 2.8 meters
DF-41: 18.5 by 3.1 meters
DF-26 missile length (not container) 16 m

I really wish I had satellite images of DF-31 and DF-31A for comparison, as well. Sadly, I don't. Unless someone can help me out and provide GE coordinates or something...

DF-31A: 39.803634° 116.710562° (11.8.09); 39.800048° 116.709524° (23.6.09); 40.145280° 116.121080° (29.8.15);
DF-31: 36.824866° 101.106507° (27.6.11); 36.828577° 101.109517° (27.6.11); 36.948611° 101.666244° (6.6.11)

 

[nugroho]

Taiwan media tends to believe China make up stuffs from time to time like in the case economic growth numbers. After this parade, DF17 officially existed for the first time. And most Taiwanese media talk about this.

Another thing they will be surprised is the advancement of Chinese AI system. They talk what a fortress Taiwan island is against Beach landing and how PLA suffer massive casualties. With the purchase of state of art F16 and brand new Abram tanks, they believe fend off any Beach landing. Well, China very likely for the first wave of landing will be banking on AI, unmanned tanks and drones ...if they fail, only robots sacrificed and they try again..

Not worthed for DF-17, a lot of missile can approach 300 km, and " Normandic beach landing " was in WW2, any think thank propose such a scenario is really out of dated.

I think they should worry about less convoluted scenarios. Currently, roughly half of the island, including the capital is inside the heavy MLRS range. Personally, I think that's even a bigger threat, as most of the SAM systems available to them cannot intercept those. I saw what kind of damage these precision guided heavy MLRS could do to a mobile convoy -- simply terrifying.

Agreed, they are cheap and that were they are created for

These numbers of ICBM and SLBM are pretty conservative and only a little more than France and UK levels. Ideally China should not only be able to guarantee complete MAD with the US but also other major powers around the world. That is supposed to be the principle that both the US and USSR were working with when they stockpiled their warheads to crazy numbers. This makes it impossible for any person to survive (or survive long term) a nuclear war wherever they are in the world and it makes it within their interest to immediately de-escalate a war.

UK and France both do not require any more than they already have because the only "threat" is Russia. If a war breaks out and goes nuclear, they will both be launching at Russia to supplement US missiles. Against China, if the US is going to strike, all their allies will be striking China at the same time since they will want to maximise damage to China and minimise China's ability to react and hit as many targets around the world, thereby diluting her missiles aimed at the US giving it a possible chance at partially surviving the fallout. China needs enough to not only cover the entire US but also their allies at the very least. This means at least 300 modernised and advanced intercontinental ranged delivery systems and a much larger and more capable SSBN fleet to overwhelm and saturate any 100% effective ABM system.

Type 096 should be completed in time to take new JL-3 missiles in coming years. Hopefully these are mass produced the same way Type 052Ds were and fitted with MIRV or multiple HGVs. Supplementing SLBMs with DF-41 and upgrades should guarantee MAD status.

Having said all that I don't believe China's overall intercontinental ranged deterrence is only about 200 missiles strong. That's not much more than the Chinese suggestion and Western estimation but in reality there is a good chance that both are under-reporting and underestimating this figure. Not anything approaching Russian or US numbers but surely more than the government suggests. The only consideration with stockpiling for China is maintenance cost which really isn't that much, refined uranium and plutonium are actually required in very tiny amounts for fusion weapons so material really isn't a problem. Security should be easy for China as well even in western regions. The only real thing stopping China from holding several hundred more missiles is the opportunity cost to conventional improvements (if total budget remains unchanged in order not to overspend on military matters).

yes, if China reported the truth amount, it will be invite Japan to nuclear race in east Asia

 

[Insignius]

Who cares about Japan joining the nuclear club? They cant even survive a single IRBM barrage, let alone a full scaled MAD scenario. Japan, like South Korea, are literally like Israel. One-bomb countries. It makes no sense for them to stockpile nukes because this will just mean that they die even faster, since more nuclear missiles will be pointed at them than they are already due to the presence of US military assets that can be used to launch nuclear strikes againt China or Russia anyway. If anything, Japan joining the nuclear race will prompt China to build more nukes and reduce Japanese life expectancy even more: Because as of now, they can at least try to be clever and sit out any Sino-US nuclear exchange by declaring neutrality. If they fully join the US nuclear threat against China, that life-saving neutrality is no more.

This argument about China not wanting a nuclear race in Asia is stupid to be honest. China is perfectly clear about the lack of interest of any asian neighbor to join the US in getting destroyed.

 

[Totoro]

DF-31A: 39.803634° 116.710562° (11.8.09); 39.800048° 116.709524° (23.6.09); 40.145280° 116.121080° (29.8.15);
DF-31: 36.824866° 101.106507° (27.6.11); 36.828577° 101.109517° (27.6.11); 36.948611° 101.666244° (6.6.11)

Thanks a ton! These really a treasure.
I am getting 15.5 meter length for DF-31A, which is sort of in line of expectations.... I did expect to get something like half a meter less, as the parade images do suggest to me AG variant container is slightly longer. But with the poor resolution 0.5 meters can still go either way.

I was very surprised to consistently get 16.5 meter length of original DF-31 container. Would that suggest that the missile itself is also slightly longer than later variants of DF-31??? This seems to be outside the margin of error, as GE measurement is usually quite precise. So A variant might indeed have a whole meter shorter container. And possibly a whole meter shorter missile inside it...

 

[ougoah]

Not worthed for DF-17, a lot of missile can approach 300 km, and " Normandic beach landing " was in WW2, any think thank propose such a scenario is really out of dated.

Agreed, they are cheap and that were they are created for

yes, if China reported the truth amount, it will be invite Japan to nuclear race in east Asia

Absolutely. This is why China has historically used hide your strength, bide your time. In the past, the resources available and industrial ability was so far behind the world leaders that any hint of the PRC being a military threat would have united western resolve to crush Chinese military expansion and they would have more likely achieved success. It still applies now, if China acts like a threat and show off full military abilities, it will be uniting even greater anti-China policies from even more countries. This is why the US have been doing their whole Uighur propaganda campaigns and inflaming India China tensions along with the non-stop SCS aggression rhetoric when there are far worse cases all around the world including criminal acts they themselves are committing. But ZERO front page or even hints of news about those things but China related stuff is 20-30% of total western media attention and 90-100% negative bias.

Already the US has initiated their "push China down" strategies and are actually working towards it rather than the previously dismissive attitudes their political leaders had. This is why China still prefers to take a low profile where it can.

However these days, it's also important for China to build allies and show the rest of the world what it's really about. This is why we see heaps of Chinese propaganda towards the bright side of its rise ie eliminating poverty, infrastructure, loans, staying away from conflicts around the world especially middle east etc etc. But they also need to begin projecting an image of strength and success, to show the more neutral observers that its government the CCP is not a failure and has been instrumental if not totally responsible for the conditions that have allowed for China's gradual reclaiming of former glory. They never promoted this system and most mouthpieces have said it's not an exportable thing like the US wants to do with liberal democracy.

Showing success and strength has its place now to increase the number of partner groups and nations. Humans are motivated by greed as much as emotions so while the west will always badmouth China and manipulate people into emotionally hating China, many still partner and trade with China out of greed. But the former is going to happen anyway since the west is hellbent on destroying any and all competitors when they become a threat to their hegemony, so why not show some success now to win the latter?

 

[Biscuits]

Y’all thinking about Japan which doesn’t even have nukes and wouldn’t ever get nukes unless they break with Washington and become independent, at which point they’ll be sandwiched between US and China which are both significantly stronger in all metrics.

The ones China don’t want to stockpile nukes is NK, Pakistan and India. As things are right now, China could likely shoot down their missiles with relative ease, making them much smaller strategic concerns.

But if they started building 1000s of nukes to catch up, those arsenals would be significantly more threatening. A country like India doesn’t need MIRVs to destroy every city, if they can throw 1000 normal missiles and just 1 slips through (and more than 1 will), it would be enough.

 

[azretonov]

As tension rises throughout this region, I wouldn't bet on any one country staying off the nuclear option forever.

Even if the conventional threat reaches a certain level, both Japan & ROK would not hesitate to acquire the nuke. And if one acquires, the other would follow. For Japan, it's more of a "when" question really. All the necessary prerequisites are met at this moment.

Back in 2010, if you have told a group of renowned military experts that a naval race concerning aircraft carriers would take place in Asia, next decade, they would have laughed at you. And yet here we are, heading toward that way.

 

[Broccoli]

Thanks a ton! These really a treasure.
I am getting 15.5 meter length for DF-31A, which is sort of in line of expectations.... I did expect to get something like half a meter less, as the parade images do suggest to me AG variant container is slightly longer. But with the poor resolution 0.5 meters can still go either way.

I was very surprised to consistently get 16.5 meter length of original DF-31 container. Would that suggest that the missile itself is also slightly longer than later variants of DF-31??? This seems to be outside the margin of error, as GE measurement is usually quite precise. So A variant might indeed have a whole meter shorter container. And possibly a whole meter shorter missile inside it...

Parade announcer said DF-31AG is an modified DF-31A and that could mean anything but i'd guess similar evolution what Minuteman and Topol's had.

 

[Broccoli]

I have spare time so I've been making a list of possible warheads PLA had/has on it's arsenal from smaller to larger yield. Everything is based on years when missiles were taken into service, yeilds of nuclear tests before said missiles were taken on service, opinions of researchers, and books about different types of nuclear weapons developed around the world to guess what kinda weapons Chinese weaponeers could have conjured.


10-12kt weapon (HEU design from 1960s) for DF-2 missile & gravity bomb variant.

5-20kt neutron weapon (1980s).

20-50kt plutonium based warhead (developed early 1970s) for short range solid-fueled ballistic missile like the DF-11 and DF-15.

90kt compact warhead (developed early to mid 1990s) small enough to be used as MIRV in larger solid-fueled like the DF-41 and maybe used as cruise missile warhead.

200-300kt warhead (developed from early to mid 1980s) for JL-1/DF-21 missiles. Variant of this is probably also used by DF-26 and DF-31A & DF-31AG.

500-600kt warhead (developed mid to late 80s) for DF-31/JL-2 missiles.

1-3mt warhead (developed late 1960s) for DF-3 series & gravity bomb variant.

4-5mt warhead (developed early to mid 1970s) for both DF-4 and DF-5.

 

[AssassinsMace]

pardon already posted.