That's a volumetric issue. You're assuming that all 30 warheads would be on the same bus. The missile could carry two or more MIRV buses stacked one atop the other.
China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread
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Is a weird article. Not gonna throw accusations without proof, but to me it looks like my first encounter with the much hyped “Russian disinformation”.
China has a ton of antiballistic early warning radar, some of them among the first ones ever fielded.
There are even a few overlooking Siberia.
China also has a bunch of early warning satellites, together, it adds up to a massive system, and it wouldn’t be easy to add anything to it.
What then would be the point of “leaking” such an article?
It could be an open signal to the west that Russia’s nuclear defense is now also tied to China’s, meaning that neither side can be strategically isolated.
I think the one in China was to knock out the PAVE PAW ON Taiwan mountain meant to spy on China.
PAVE PAW went blind when China activated their radar.
7 brigades of DF31As, mirving 3 nukes since 2005. I presume DF31AG is even more powerful and accurate.
Your guess as good as mine.
The truth is somewhere in between.
Again your guess as good as mine, or any.
Absolute truth a very rare commodity then, and now, and in the future.
But someone here seemed to, and claimed to have absolute strangle hold on truth and he knows all the truth and nothing but the truth at all times.
I only claim to see different facets of a view, and which may not be the truth either from smoke and mirrors getting in between.
How would what looks like an early warning radar from China positioned north of Zhejiang be able to disrupt a Taiwanese early warning radar directed more towards Fujian? Both are looking for missiles flying higher in the atmosphere.
On this topic, China may want to take a close look at Russian early warning systems. I would imagine Chinese and Russian ones are different enough for China to go ahead with partnering with Russia in developing new generations of early warning radars. Most of China's are from the 70s and 80s. I recall only reading about a new one, pictured in Biscuits post about a decade ago. Russian Voronezh looks very different and more mobile and easily steerable. Now this is all if the news is even true and totally accurate. Only one Russian source started this (with maybe more parroting the news). For all we know, it could just be the two nations partnering up to develop and build more early warning radars for China to plug some holes in coverage.
I don't know if DF-41 was every officially mentioned as using MIRV. That's not to say it doesn't. It almost certainly does. There was that one occasion where a local authority (not chinese military) mentioned MIRV capability online and then that statement was removed. But I do remember that DF-5B was indeed officially stated on a parade as using MIRV.
Whether DF-31AG uses MIRV is debatable. Since DF-31A could still use some extra range, it's also quite plausible that the extra throw weight was traded for extra fuel/range, rather than extra warheads. The same argument could be used for JL-2. Those certainly could use as much range as they could get, before going for MIRV capability.
Does anyone remember highest numbers of DF-31AG launchers seen at one time? I remmeber back in 2017 parade it was 17 launchers. (one was extra, on the side, I guess in case one of the parade ones broke down). Then I saw claims of a similar deal for DF-41 for this recent parade, that 2 extra launchers were prepped.
Anyway, likely minimum number of launchers identified so far might be:
8 of DF-31 (one brigade having 8 launchers?)
24-32 of DF-31A
16-24 of DF-31AG
16-24 of DF-41
~24 of DF-5 (possibly all B variant by now? Also, this is assuming 3 units are out there)
In addition to 48 JL-2 missiles of course (4 sets of missiles for 5 subs seems reasonable, though it's just a guess. French and British do officially state they have 3 sets of missiles deployed on 4 submarines)
Whether DF-31AG uses MIRV is debatable. Since DF-31A could still use some extra range, it's also quite plausible that the extra throw weight was traded for extra fuel/range, rather than extra warheads. The same argument could be used for JL-2. Those certainly could use as much range as they could get, before going for MIRV capability.
Does anyone remember highest numbers of DF-31AG launchers seen at one time? I remmeber back in 2017 parade it was 17 launchers. (one was extra, on the side, I guess in case one of the parade ones broke down). Then I saw claims of a similar deal for DF-41 for this recent parade, that 2 extra launchers were prepped.
Anyway, likely minimum number of launchers identified so far might be:
8 of DF-31 (one brigade having 8 launchers?)
24-32 of DF-31A
16-24 of DF-31AG
16-24 of DF-41
~24 of DF-5 (possibly all B variant by now? Also, this is assuming 3 units are out there)
In addition to 48 JL-2 missiles of course (4 sets of missiles for 5 subs seems reasonable, though it's just a guess. French and British do officially state they have 3 sets of missiles deployed on 4 submarines)
antiterror13
Brigadier
I think DF-31 is no longer exist, all have been converted to A and AG
My guess
32 DF-31A
32 DF-31AG
32 DF-41
24 DF-5B
48 JL-2
so about 100 can reach the USA comfortably. I believe it should increase to 200-300
These numbers of ICBM and SLBM are pretty conservative and only a little more than France and UK levels. Ideally China should not only be able to guarantee complete MAD with the US but also other major powers around the world. That is supposed to be the principle that both the US and USSR were working with when they stockpiled their warheads to crazy numbers. This makes it impossible for any person to survive (or survive long term) a nuclear war wherever they are in the world and it makes it within their interest to immediately de-escalate a war.
UK and France both do not require any more than they already have because the only "threat" is Russia. If a war breaks out and goes nuclear, they will both be launching at Russia to supplement US missiles. Against China, if the US is going to strike, all their allies will be striking China at the same time since they will want to maximise damage to China and minimise China's ability to react and hit as many targets around the world, thereby diluting her missiles aimed at the US giving it a possible chance at partially surviving the fallout. China needs enough to not only cover the entire US but also their allies at the very least. This means at least 300 modernised and advanced intercontinental ranged delivery systems and a much larger and more capable SSBN fleet to overwhelm and saturate any 100% effective ABM system.
Type 096 should be completed in time to take new JL-3 missiles in coming years. Hopefully these are mass produced the same way Type 052Ds were and fitted with MIRV or multiple HGVs. Supplementing SLBMs with DF-41 and upgrades should guarantee MAD status.
Having said all that I don't believe China's overall intercontinental ranged deterrence is only about 200 missiles strong. That's not much more than the Chinese suggestion and Western estimation but in reality there is a good chance that both are under-reporting and underestimating this figure. Not anything approaching Russian or US numbers but surely more than the government suggests. The only consideration with stockpiling for China is maintenance cost which really isn't that much, refined uranium and plutonium are actually required in very tiny amounts for fusion weapons so material really isn't a problem. Security should be easy for China as well even in western regions. The only real thing stopping China from holding several hundred more missiles is the opportunity cost to conventional improvements (if total budget remains unchanged in order not to overspend on military matters).
The problem with the older missiles where most of the arsenal is mounted (DF-5, DF-4) is that they can just barely reach Florida and not reach Panama at all. In a hypothetical MAD scenario, the US leadership could hide in Panama, which would require China to sail a SSBN up to it (quite risky)
But they have enough range to devastate the west coast and parts of Europe.
China only really needs to send DF-41s after the most remote strongholds, and use it’s older arsenal against everything else.
And since Russia turned and became an ally, China no longer needs to reserve missiles to destroy both USSR and USA in a nuclear war, they can fully focus on Japan and USA.
Allying with Russia freed up potentially thousands of older warheads.
But they have enough range to devastate the west coast and parts of Europe.
China only really needs to send DF-41s after the most remote strongholds, and use it’s older arsenal against everything else.
And since Russia turned and became an ally, China no longer needs to reserve missiles to destroy both USSR and USA in a nuclear war, they can fully focus on Japan and USA.
Allying with Russia freed up potentially thousands of older warheads.
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