Smaller yield warheads maybe. The relative effective size of the warhead compartment will not be ten times larger than something like a DF-31. 30 warheads will be 30 smaller warheads. Unless Russia has minitiarised nukes better than both China and the US, I'm not going to believe their ICBMs and warheads are truly just that much ahead of everyone else. Everyone spends roughly the same amount on military each year (as in not like NK who spends around 20% of GDP).
China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread
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Smaller yield warheads maybe. The relative effective size of the warhead compartment will not be ten times larger than something like a DF-31. 30 warheads will be 30 smaller warheads. Unless Russia has minitiarised nukes better than both China and the US, I'm not going to believe their ICBMs and warheads are truly just that much ahead of everyone else. Everyone spends roughly the same amount on military each year (as in not like NK who spends around 20% of GDP).
Multiple sources suggest that DF-31AG may in fact accommodate 3-5 relatively smaller MiRV, ranging from some 90kt to 150kt yielded nuclear payload.
If that's true then they're really making a big fuss with regards to pretending to be caught surprised. Perhaps underestimating China as it seems to be intended by all. Chinese hypersonic abilities would have been known for a while since the US is likely to share this sort of basic intel. They've even formally acknowledged these hypersonics many years ago when it was already an open secret.
Taiwan media tends to believe China make up stuffs from time to time like in the case economic growth numbers. After this parade, DF17 officially existed for the first time. And most Taiwanese media talk about this.
Another thing they will be surprised is the advancement of Chinese AI system. They talk what a fortress Taiwan island is against Beach landing and how PLA suffer massive casualties. With the purchase of state of art F16 and brand new Abram tanks, they believe fend off any Beach landing. Well, China very likely for the first wave of landing will be banking on AI, unmanned tanks and drones ...if they fail, only robots sacrificed and they try again..
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I don't think any country is ready for the level of AI that you just envisioned, to be deployed in war. It would turn out to be a man vs machine question. The same question fighter pilots in US asks when the proposition of unmanned fighter jets squadrons are raised at the expense of Manned fighter squadrons.
In this case , the questions would be Military planners/ Generals vs AI. I don't think the technology is there and it has to see maturity ( may take a decade or two). AI ought to be applied in many fields but it shall be in controlled environments with largely accounted-for variables.
I think they should worry about less convoluted scenarios. Currently, roughly half of the island, including the capital is inside the heavy MLRS range. Personally, I think that's even a bigger threat, as most of the SAM systems available to them cannot intercept those. I saw what kind of damage these precision guided heavy MLRS could do to a mobile convoy -- simply terrifying.
What is Taiwan's South Paw?
An ATACMS costs $800K, so the Chinese version is probably going to be close to that cost.
Any guesses on how many are in the Chinese inventory?
It looks like the US Army has approx 1700 in the inventory.
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