China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[Anlsvrthng]

You misunderstood my point, I didn't say using electrical generating plants to create plutonium directly, I was referring to building dedicated reprocessing plants to support processing of spent fuel for plutonium use. The 28 new Nuclear plants under construction will generate spent fuel, so having a reprocessing plant with the capacity of

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or

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would help immensely.

You can't use the Pu from commercial plants to make ICBM grade warheads.

 

[taxiya]

There have been numerous assessments and reports from authoritative sources that place the figure at around 200-300 nuclear weapons. For the purpose of nuclear deterrence there is no point in downplaying the size of your arsenal unless you wish to use it as a bargaining chip for a future conflict.



Your argument is all over the place. Firstly, territorial integrity should not be mated with the concept of a nuclear second-strike. The two scenarios bring about drastically different consequences and hence China's stance on the two will be diametrically different. When a country like the USSR or US threatens to wipe out China in a nuclear first strike, it does not do so because it wishes to gain China's territory or to redefine its borders; it carries out the attack because it wishes to prevent China from ever becoming a threat to the sovereignty of itself and that of democratic allies. Whereas China may risk a military conflict to defend its borders and overseas territory, knowing fully well that such conflicts are likely limited and short in scope, its stance towards an apocalyptic nuclear exchange will be much different.

Now, back to the postulate. If the US/USSR/Godzilla launches an all-out decapitation nuclear strike against China, in which virtually all of China's military and urban infrastructure is destroyed, what would China gain from retaliating? Does the outbreak of a nuclear war not negate the purpose of having a nuclear arsenal? Why would China expend its nuclear arsenal, at the risk of creating additional fallout that could harm the entirety of humanity, to achieve a goal that was dashed the moment the enemy launched her weapons?

Despite what some historical leaders (Mao) may say to the public & press, there is little reason for China to retaliate in the event of a nuclear first strike against her, and this is true regardless of China's stockpile size.

That is very weird thinking. On the one hand you assume there is nothing in the mind of Godzilla's leadership about the future of whole humanity when they press the nuclear button against China. But somehow the Chinese leader is obliged to think about the humanity's survival?

To tell you the truth, at the very deep bottom of heart of every human, there is a not-so-nice piece, it is "if I die I take all of you with me". If you think other humans in US/USSR dare to do it first, don't expect Chinese to do any different. Humanity's survival means Chinese survival (and only Chinese survival) as far as Chinese concern.

And yet, there is lots of reason for US and Russia to maintain their first strike policy? I think that is only your personal reason, not China's.

Maintaining a small arsenal does NOT mean not using it. Remember, most Chinese warheads are high-yield bombs aimed at enemy population (your humanity) centers rather than being a bunk-buster. You should know very well what the Chinese leader really want from their limited warheads.

 

[taxiya]

Your description is true only for the amateurs like me.

If you have access to the right scientist , satellites, confirmed data from your own nuclear sites, or simply just to enough money to conduct full size experiments with IR satellites and similar sites then you can calculate quite well the capacity of the reactor in question.

It means the publicly available data about the Chinese weapon grade PU stock has a magnitude margin of error, but the USA , Russia ect. know it with quite high precision. And they know as well how much Pu239/U235 required for a three stage thermonuclear weapon.

Not like it helps us by any means .

So you are saying the "experts" + "confirmed data from own nuclear sites" + IR satellites will yield accurate data of production rate of nuclear material.
So if want to deceive you pretending I have a plant to make PU, I will just build a huge thermal radiator inside a big building that looks like a nuclear processing facility?
Or, on the contrary if I want to pretend to have no capability, I can just water cool my entire roof of the processing facility?
Or, even better, I dug a mountain empty to house my processing plant, have the plant under the surface of 500 meters of rocks covered by thick plantations. Can your satellites still see anything?

All the technology above is piece of cake to do. And China at least has built one such in-mountain facility decades ago, this one has been officially acknowledged, there may be other ones not acknowledged yet.

No, those experts are no better than Armatures IF they are deprived any chance of data acquisition. And without human spy involved on the ground, technical gadget like IR satellites are just useless toys.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

here's his latest assessment:

" Based on these new sources, China’s current stockpile of weapon-grade fissile material consists of about 14 tons of HEU and 2.9 tons of plutonium. The new HEU estimate is significantly lower than other recent estimates, while the new plutonium figure is

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. The new estimates show that China could still have the smallest military stockpile of HEU and plutonium among the five nuclear-weapon states recognized by the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. As a comparison, the current stock of weapon-grade fissile material in the United States is

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599 tons of HEU and 87.6 tons of plutonium.

Assuming each Chinese warhead contains about 4 kilograms (kg) of plutonium in its primary stage and about 20 kg of highly enriched uranium in its secondary stage, a military inventory of about 2.9 tons of plutonium and 14 tons of HEU would support around 730 thermonuclear warheads. Given the huge gaps between Chinese and US fissile materials stocks and nuclear weapon arsenals, it is difficult to imagine China would even attempt to achieve parity."


you can download his report from here:

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Regurgitating the samo samo Old study with no new material whatsoever. done by academic reading and quoting old study.Like they Phd study is reading and regurgitating from dead people book that nobody care about it
NOT RELIABLE AT ALL!

 

[Anlsvrthng]

So you are saying the "experts" + "confirmed data from own nuclear sites" + IR satellites will yield accurate data of production rate of nuclear material.
So if want to deceive you pretending I have a plant to make PU, I will just build a huge thermal radiator inside a big building that looks like a nuclear processing facility?
Or, on the contrary if I want to pretend to have no capability, I can just water cool my entire roof of the processing facility?
Or, even better, I dug a mountain empty to house my processing plant, have the plant under the surface of 500 meters of rocks covered by thick plantations. Can your satellites still see anything?

All the technology above is piece of cake to do. And China at least has built one such in-mountain facility decades ago, this one has been officially acknowledged, there may be other ones not acknowledged yet.

No, those experts are no better than Armatures IF they are deprived any chance of data acquisition. And without human spy involved on the ground, technical gadget like IR satellites are just useless toys.

I think you miss the magnitude of the energy generated by the Pu plant.
It cost 200 000 euro / hour to pretend it with electricity, and 70 000 euro/hour from gas for a small, few hundred kg/year plant.

The later is problematic, the satellite will show the exhaust.

In the first case it will show the high voltage supply cables.

And generally, if you bury the plant under kms of mountain WITHOUT active cooling (means a big hot spot on surface) then you will cook everyone .Literally .

The solar energy received by one sq km of at the equator is 1 GWt.

Means your small scale pu making plant will be visible even if it radiating its energy over several square km, for extremely high cost.

 

[taxiya]

I think you miss the magnitude of the energy generated by the Pu plant.
It cost 200 000 euro / hour to pretend it with electricity, and 70 000 euro/hour from gas for a small, few hundred kg/year plant.

The later is problematic, the satellite will show the exhaust.

In the first case it will show the high voltage supply cables.

And generally, if you bury the plant under kms of mountain WITHOUT active cooling (means a big hot spot on surface) then you will cook everyone .Literally .

The solar energy received by one sq km of at the equator is 1 GWt.

Means your small scale pu making plant will be visible even if it radiating its energy over several square km, for extremely high cost.

I don't know about your calculations about pretending. But they are just my fantacy suggestions for argument.

But the mountain is real. Isn't active cooling part of the plant? And doesn't rocks and the water streams inside (a common feature of the region) provide better cooling than air (in case the plant on surface).

Have you been to a cave? I have. On a hot summer day in Greece, the air temperature on land (200 meter above sea) is 35 degrees, at the entrance of the cave (over 1000 meters) the temperature is below 30. 50 meters inside the entrance, it is a chamber of 100sqm x 20m high, the temperature is below 20 (I felt chill, not measured by thermal meter). The cave is way deeper than I have reached. Another example, in Hangzhou, China, a mountain of about 200m high, summer day 35 degrees, water from the stream is freezing cold, I'd say around 5 degrees, because I got headache after drinking it, just like drinking beer out of fridge (around 4 degrees). Non of these numbers are scientifically accurate, but you should get the feeling.

This kind of temperature difference plus the volume of the mountain is perfect cooling system better than man-made systems.

 

[AndrewS]

That is very weird thinking. On the one hand you assume there is nothing in the mind of Godzilla's leadership about the future of whole humanity when they press the nuclear button against China. But somehow the Chinese leader is obliged to think about the humanity's survival?

To tell you the truth, at the very deep bottom of heart of every human, there is a not-so-nice piece, it is "if I die I take all of you with me". If you think other humans in US/USSR dare to do it first, don't expect Chinese to do any different. Humanity's survival means Chinese survival (and only Chinese survival) as far as Chinese concern.

And yet, there is lots of reason for US and Russia to maintain their first strike policy? I think that is only your personal reason, not China's.

Maintaining a small arsenal does NOT mean not using it. Remember, most Chinese warheads are high-yield bombs aimed at enemy population (your humanity) centers rather than being a bunk-buster. You should know very well what the Chinese leader really want from their limited warheads.

On "if I die I take all of you with me".

It's related to the need for vengeance, which is a evolutionary imperative which happens in animals as well, not just humans.

Article below
----
Does Revenge Serve an Evolutionary Purpose?

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[taxiya]

On "if I die I take all of you with me".

It's related to the need for vengeance, which is a evolutionary imperative which happens in animals as well, not just humans.

Article below
----
Does Revenge Serve an Evolutionary Purpose?

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Hehe, let's not continue further with that dark side of human (a dressed up animal). But I give you a short answer IMO, no it does not serve any purpose. Evolution has absolutely no purpose in the individual animal or the species as a whole. On a higher ground, there is NO purpose whatsoever in natural world. Any purpose is only created by human and their gods to justify their act. The motivation of the act is survival which include competition. If one individual's life is threatened, one will instinctively threat the "threatener" including destroying. "Revenge" serve the purpose to prevent further harming to the group of a individual even if that particular individual is dead, revenge still protect other living individuals. Elephant is a well-known example other than human, they don't have any purpose to evolve. Strictly speaking I will avoid using the word Revenge as it sounds purposeful, I'd use "counter-act of predator".

 

[Anlsvrthng]

Have you been to a cave? I have. On a hot summer day in Greece, the air temperature on land (200 meter above sea) is 35 degrees, at the entrance of the cave (over 1000 meters) the temperature is below 30. 50 meters inside the entrance, it is a chamber of 100sqm x 20m high, the temperature is below 20 (I felt chill, not measured by thermal meter). The cave is way deeper than I have reached. Another example, in Hangzhou, China, a mountain of about 200m high, summer day 35 degrees, water from the stream is freezing cold, I'd say around 5 degrees, because I got headache after drinking it, just like drinking beer out of fridge (around 4 degrees). Non of these numbers are scientifically accurate, but you should get the feeling.

This kind of temperature difference plus the volume of the mountain is perfect cooling system better than man-made systems.

Still, magnitude.

The underground gave will works as a heat insulator rather than heat sink.

I don't want to spend my time with heat transfer calculations, but I bet it will be hundreds of Celsius when the heat transfer will balance itself out.

doesn't need calculation.
1 meter o stone like 30mm rockwool .

Means 100 meters is like 3 meter of very good insulation around the heat source.

 

[taxiya]

Still, magnitude.

The underground gave will works as a heat insulator rather than heat sink.

I don't want to spend my time with heat transfer calculations, but I bet it will be hundreds of Celsius when the heat transfer will balance itself out.

Really puzzled by this statement. Ambient air on the ground is a heat sink, so is the air in the cave. The heat on ground pass through air, while the air in the cave pass to the rock which is even better serving as the heat sink. Besides that, the sipping water from the rock would serve as better heat sink than the air in the cave, the heated water will then be allowed to continue sip into the rock on the floor of the case. But whatever I say, I think you will refuse to consider.