China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

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Hendrik_2000

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Anlsvrthng said:
That making the reactor design more complicated, needs generators, condensers, transformers, transmission line ect.

And if the job of the reactor is to make plutonium ( and tritium) then it will be stopped periodically , as demanded by the military not as demanded by the electrical network.

I think it is safe to say if the reactor can be used to make electricity then the cost of it will be double/triple of the pure Pu making one.
Click to expand...

Actually that is what they did in Jiuguanplant converting it to generate power
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Finally I find excellent reference to Chinese plutonium production .Turn out the Gansu plant (Jiuguan) is ceased to operate and replaced by Guanyang plant in Sichuan where there is no publication or photo or anything else
The old plant has couple of photo and some report from China today So based on the report,photo they did estimate using mathematical formula WITH A LOT OF ASSUMPTION! Basically tea leave reading they come up with estimate of 3-5 Ton for Jiuguan, guanyang plant , assuming 3-5 kg per bomb They have material for 1000 bomb!
As I said before no one know the amount of plutonium production
And China has reprocessing technology in 2004 Here it is
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upload_2018-7-15_0-17-27.jpeg
upload_2018-7-15_0-26-52.jpeg
 
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Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
Hendrik_2000 said:
Actually that is what they did in Jiuguanplant converting it to generate power
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Finally I find excellent reference to Chinese plutonium production .Turn out the Gansu plant (Jiuguan) is ceased to operate and replaced by Guanyang plant in Sichuan where there is no publication or photo or anything else
The old plant has couple of photo and some report from China today So based on the report,photo they did estimate using mathematical formula WITH A LOT OF ASSUMPTION! Basically tea leave reading they come up with estimate of 3-5 Ton for Jiuguan, guanyang plant , assuming 3-5 kg per bomb They have material for 1000 bomb!
As I said before no one know the amount of plutonium production
And China has reprocessing technology in 2004 Here it is
Click to expand...
It is not simply tea leaves.

As I said before the generated heat is strictly correlated with the generated amount of Pu.

Means that if infrared satellites continuously monitor the site then it is possible to calculate the generated amount of Pu239.

You can see similar pictured of the NK Pu facility:
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These days it is possible to buy IR photos from the free market, means independent agencies can make Pu generating assessments.

But the CIA monitor this site(s) since the advent of the IR satellite.
Additionally, the military reactor has to be used to make Tritium and other bomb materials as well ( like pu238)
 
Hendrik_2000

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Anlsvrthng said:
It is not simply tea leaves.

As I said before the generated heat is strictly correlated with the generated amount of Pu.

Means that if infrared satellites continuously monitor the site then it is possible to calculate the generated amount of Pu239.

You can see similar pictured of the NK Pu facility:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


These days it is possible to buy IR photos from the free market, means independent agencies can make Pu generating assessments.

But the CIA monitor this site(s) since the advent of the IR satellite.
Additionally, the military reactor has to be used to make Tritium and other bomb materials as well ( like pu238)
Click to expand...

How are they going to calculate Pu from infra red reading, Infra red can be used to get temperature and nothing else It is tea leave reading.Photo is used to get the diameter of cooling tower. First they estimate the size of Nuclear facility by guessing the size of cooling tower from diameter which is very imprecise. Cooling tower come in different configuration and design with varying degree of cooling.

Then they assume different efficiency,utilization rate and all other assumption and put the number in the formula. So it BS

BTW your reference does not say anything on estimating the production rate of Pu. It just find that the reactor is not working yet!
 
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Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
Hendrik_2000 said:
How are they going to calculate Pu from infra red reading, Infra red can be used to get temperature and nothing else It is tea leave reading.Photo is used to get the diameter of cooling tower. First they estimate the size of Nuclear facility by guessing the size of cooling tower from diameter which is very imprecise. Cooling tower come in different configuration and design with varying degree of cooling.

Then they assume different efficiency,utilization rate and all other assumption and put the number in the formula. So it BS

BTW your reference does not say anything on estimating the production rate of Pu. It just find that the reactor is not working yet!
Click to expand...
Your description is true only for the amateurs like me.

If you have access to the right scientist , satellites, confirmed data from your own nuclear sites, or simply just to enough money to conduct full size experiments with IR satellites and similar sites then you can calculate quite well the capacity of the reactor in question.

It means the publicly available data about the Chinese weapon grade PU stock has a magnitude margin of error, but the USA , Russia ect. know it with quite high precision. And they know as well how much Pu239/U235 required for a three stage thermonuclear weapon.

Not like it helps us by any means :) .
 
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montyp165

Senior Member
Given that the Soviets had an entire system of dual use electrical generating/plutonium generating powerplants at work (to a much greater extent than the US), having a broader base capability would be quite useful in increasing surge production of nuclear arms components as circumstances require.
 
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Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
montyp165 said:
Given that the Soviets had an entire system of dual use electrical generating/plutonium generating powerplants at work (to a much greater extent than the US), having a broader base capability would be quite useful in increasing surge production of nuclear arms components as circumstances require.
Click to expand...

The RBMK is never meant to be reprocessed, they never installed equipment for that purpose in Mayak.
They have VVER reprocessing equipment, but not RBMK.

The main benefit of the RBMK is the low (2%) enrichment,and they used the available/proven industrial infrastructure from the nuclear weapon program.


The refuelling equipment to operate the power generating equipment with full power should be very expensive, potentially more than if they build a dedicated Pu generating reactor.
 
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montyp165

Senior Member
If the number of new reactor plants being built in China do all go active, it may be more economical to just build up reprocessing capacity for Pu generation to complement existing/planned Pu generating plants.
 
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