China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

Status
Not open for further replies.

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
If the number of new reactor plants being built in China do all go active, it may be more economical to just build up reprocessing capacity for Pu generation to complement existing/planned Pu generating plants.

It is extremely difficult to use a PWR/BWR reactor for Pu239 making.
Not impossible, but painful and render the reactor unusable for electrical generation.

Additionally weapon Pu making with central country level reprocessing / fuel making is expensive as well.


There is a reason why everyone made the weapon pu with dedicated reactors ,reprocessing and fuel making factories.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
It is extremely difficult to use a PWR/BWR reactor for Pu239 making.
Not impossible, but painful and render the reactor unusable for electrical generation.

Additionally weapon Pu making with central country level reprocessing / fuel making is expensive as well.


There is a reason why everyone made the weapon pu with dedicated reactors ,reprocessing and fuel making factories.

Not really CANDU system has on power refuelling meaning It can remove the fuel while it is in operation . In fact CANDU is ideal for plutonium production because it also generate tritium. And much safer to operate
India IO believe use CANDU research reactor built in 60's to generate Pu
 

Hyperwarp

Captain

Anlsvrthng, here are some questions (can you give us an estimate),

1. How many thermonuclear warheads can China produce with roughly 2T of weapons-grade Pu? (W87, W88 type warheads)

2. Using purely HEU how many thermonuclear warheads (not specifically W87 or W88 type, but in general) can you cram into the DF-5 and DF-41. DF-41 payload is estimated at 2500 kg while DF-5 estimates vary from 3200 to 3900 kg. Given those numbers, how many MIRVs are possible only using HEU. (Let's assume DF-31A/31AG can only carry a single 1MT warhead with pen-aids).

Thanks in advance.
 

nicky

Junior Member
here's his latest assessment:

" Based on these new sources, China’s current stockpile of weapon-grade fissile material consists of about 14 tons of HEU and 2.9 tons of plutonium. The new HEU estimate is significantly lower than other recent estimates, while the new plutonium figure is
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
. The new estimates show that China could still have the smallest military stockpile of HEU and plutonium among the five nuclear-weapon states recognized by the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. As a comparison, the current stock of weapon-grade fissile material in the United States is
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
599 tons of HEU and 87.6 tons of plutonium.

Assuming each Chinese warhead contains about 4 kilograms (kg) of plutonium in its primary stage and about 20 kg of highly enriched uranium in its secondary stage, a military inventory of about 2.9 tons of plutonium and 14 tons of HEU would support around 730 thermonuclear warheads. Given the huge gaps between Chinese and US fissile materials stocks and nuclear weapon arsenals, it is difficult to imagine China would even attempt to achieve parity."


you can download his report from here:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
Not really CANDU system has on power refuelling meaning It can remove the fuel while it is in operation . In fact CANDU is ideal for plutonium production because it also generate tritium. And much safer to operate
India IO believe use CANDU research reactor built in 60's to generate Pu
It is possible to use any reactor to make weapon Pu239.

The CANDU and RBMK less pain to use for weapon Pu making, but it is still pain.
The power reactors optimised for uniform heat flux, the Pu making ones for few high power seeder rods, and lot of Pu blankets.
Means the nominal power of civilian reactor won't be the same if they used in weapon Pu generating mode.
And they needs modifications to use them in full power for weapon making.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
Anlsvrthng, here are some questions (can you give us an estimate),

1. How many thermonuclear warheads can China produce with roughly 2T of weapons-grade Pu? (W87, W88 type warheads)

2. Using purely HEU how many thermonuclear warheads (not specifically W87 or W88 type, but in general) can you cram into the DF-5 and DF-41. DF-41 payload is estimated at 2500 kg while DF-5 estimates vary from 3200 to 3900 kg. Given those numbers, how many MIRVs are possible only using HEU. (Let's assume DF-31A/31AG can only carry a single 1MT warhead with pen-aids).

Thanks in advance.
3-6kg for each warhead.Depending on the design of the warhead.
The warhead will be bigger by say 20-40%.
It is hard to say how the number of warheads in a MIRV ICBM, considering the mass of the bus can be the main contributor .
The service module of the Soyuz can be a prime example how a MIRV bus should looks like.
 

montyp165

Senior Member
It is extremely difficult to use a PWR/BWR reactor for Pu239 making.
Not impossible, but painful and render the reactor unusable for electrical generation.

Additionally weapon Pu making with central country level reprocessing / fuel making is expensive as well.


There is a reason why everyone made the weapon pu with dedicated reactors ,reprocessing and fuel making factories.

You misunderstood my point, I didn't say using electrical generating plants to create plutonium directly, I was referring to building dedicated reprocessing plants to support processing of spent fuel for plutonium use. The 28 new Nuclear plants under construction will generate spent fuel, so having a reprocessing plant with the capacity of
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
[/url] or
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
would help immensely.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
here's his latest assessment:

" Based on these new sources, China’s current stockpile of weapon-grade fissile material consists of about 14 tons of HEU and 2.9 tons of plutonium. The new HEU estimate is significantly lower than other recent estimates, while the new plutonium figure is
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
. The new estimates show that China could still have the smallest military stockpile of HEU and plutonium among the five nuclear-weapon states recognized by the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. As a comparison, the current stock of weapon-grade fissile material in the United States is
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
599 tons of HEU and 87.6 tons of plutonium.

Assuming each Chinese warhead contains about 4 kilograms (kg) of plutonium in its primary stage and about 20 kg of highly enriched uranium in its secondary stage, a military inventory of about 2.9 tons of plutonium and 14 tons of HEU would support around 730 thermonuclear warheads. Given the huge gaps between Chinese and US fissile materials stocks and nuclear weapon arsenals, it is difficult to imagine China would even attempt to achieve parity."


you can download his report from here:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


The HU uranium is required for the making of the Pu239, not to make bomb.

20 kg of U235 contain 100 kiloton of TNT, with 20% ish efficiency.

I don't think that there is more than few kg of fissile material in the secondary .
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top