China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

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SpicySichuan

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Looks like CJ-10 got a fancier standard name!
 

Blitzo

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If one looks at the DF-26's missile canister near the nose/neck of the missile, one can make out four square protrusions arranged evenly around the missile's circumference.

I suspect that those protrusions may be there in the canister, to provide space for the fins of the re entry vehicle. Instead of choosing to go for a canister like DF-21D which may have more empty space near the front end, I think DF-26's missile canister is much more "form fitting" for the actual missile itself.
 

JayBird

Junior Member
shen mention this article by Andrew S. Erickson from national interest in the Victory parade thread. It's got a very detailed translation of basically every word the announcer say about the DF-21D and DF-26 plus his own analyze of them. A very interesting read if you have the time. ( 4 pages long) :)



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Andrew S. Erickson
September 3, 2015

Yesterday’s Beijing V-Day parade addressed multiple audiences. Among them, clearly—the U.S. Navy, the U.S. military writ large and their regional allied and partner counterparts. After years of foreign speculation and surprising skepticism about an anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM), China has for the first time officially revealed two variants: the DF-21D and DF-26.

As official Chinese-language commentary streamed on the state television channel CCTV-1, and sixteen DF-21D MRBMs rolled by in precise formation on their transporter-erector-launchers (TELs), the missile was described as an “assassin’s mace weapon” (杀手锏武器) with the ability to strike “targets on water” (水面目标). The set of sixteen DF-21Ds was further described as the “Conventional Missile Second Formation. DF-21D, road mobile anti ship ballistic missile, the assassin’s mace for maritime asymmetric warfare” (常规导弹第二方队, DF21丁是打击舰船目标的路基弹道导弹, 是我军海上非对称作战的杀手锏武器). The DF-21Ds appeared to have a longer, pointier nose cap than the DF-21C variants displayed in the previous parade.

Official commentary states that the longer-range DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) is “capable of nuclear and conventional strike” (核常兼备). This dual-payload term is particularly interesting, and the Janus-faced concept has clearly been contemplated by Chinese strategists and technicians alike for some time.



Official commentary elaborated that the DF-26 is “capable of targeting large- and medium-sized targets on water” (打击大中型水面目标). This “Guam Killer” missile is credited with 3,000-4,000-km (1,800-2,500 mile) range, sufficient to strike U.S. bases on Guam. The set of sixteen DF-26 missiles was further described as the “Conventional-/Nuclear-capable formation. The DF-26 can perform medium-to-long-range precision attack on both land and large-to-medium-sized maritime targets. A new weapon for strategic deterrence” (核常兼备导弹方队, 东26能对陆上重要目标和海上大中型舰船实施中远程精确打击, 是我军战略威慑力量体系中的新型武器).
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Interesting comment by Mark Stokes who for years has been researching and studying ASBM

I hope the nay sayer will wake up from their slumber Forget about Air Sea Battle. China now has longer range ASBM with a range of 4000 km

TAIPEI — China showcased its growing capability to deny the US Navy access to the maritime domain of both the East China Sea and South China Sea during a celebratory parade Thursday commemorating the 70th anniversary of its victory over imperialist Japan.

Parade officials commented that 80 percent of the weapons on display had never been exhibited to the public before, and all the equipment was Chinese-made and operational. Though this is a fair statement, three fighter aircraft that took part in the parade are actually pirated copies of foreign fighter aircraft, including the J-11B (Sukhoi Su-27), carrier-borne J-15 (Su-33) Flying Shark, and the J-10 (Israeli Lavi).

The parade showcased for the first time a variety of ballistic missiles under the command of the Second Artillery Corps. Mark Stokes, a China ballistic missile specialist at the Project 2049 Institute, said that leading each parade formation were corps leader grade officers – chief of staff, chief engineer or deputy commander.

"It appears that each of the six missile bases were represented with a new missile system," he said.

The ballistic missile line-up was impressive: DF-5B intercontinental ballistic missile, DF-15B short-range ballistic missile (SRBM), DF-16 medium-range ballistic missile, DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM), DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile with ASBM capabilities, and the DF-31A ICBM.

The DF-5B is believed to be China's first nuclear-armed ICBM with multiple independent re-entry vehicles. Officially, the DF-5B can carry only three nuclear warheads, but there are suspicions it can carry as many as five.

The parade in Beijing comes roughly 20 years after the Taiwan Strait missile crisis (July 1995 to March 1996). China's decision to conduct missile drills with SRBMs was in part an effort to disrupt Taiwan's first democratic presidential elections. The US deployed two aircraft carriers to monitor the crisis. In total, China fired 10 DF-15A SRBMs around the island. China took offense to the positioning of US aircraft carriers, and began to develop a means to hold at risk US carriers in future scenarios.

This has led to the development of the first ASBM ever deployed. The DF-21D ASBM, dubbed the "carrier killer," was on parade for the first time, along with a surprise statement by Chinese commentators that the DF-26 intermediate range ballistic missile was also an ASBM.

Though the DF-26 has been dubbed the "Guam Killer" by some Western analysts, the announcement during the parade that the missile also had anti-ship capabilities came as a chill to some analysts.

"The nickname 'Guam Killer' is obviously a misunderstanding because China has had the capability to 'kill' Guam for many decades with other ballistic missiles, but it is the first ballistic missile that is capable of targeting Guam with conventional warheads," said Hans Kristensen, director, Nuclear Information Project, Federation of American Scientists.

"That is important because it would enable China to damage or disable Andersen AFB [Air Force Base] in a war without resorting to use of nuclear weapons."

"The most interesting possibility from the parade is that China debuted not one ASBM, but two," said Andrew Erickson, now a research associate at Harvard University's John King Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies. The DF-21D and DF-26 were both described during the parade as ASBMs, he said.

Furthermore, the parade announcer said the DF-26 was able to hit medium and large size ships.

"If that is the case, and Chinese surveillance capabilities are capable of providing sufficient intelligence and guidance at long distances, then it would allow Chinese military planners to hold at risk US aircraft carriers at twice the range of the DF-21D," Kristensen said.

"Striking ships with ballistic missiles at long range is technically challenging and there are many weak links in the chain of necessary sensors that are vulnerable to interdiction," Kristensen said. "A good indicator would be to see how much effort US missile defense systems will spend on the DF-26 and DF-21D." The 16 launchers on parade indicate the DF-26 is operational, he said.

This makes the DF-26 a second-generation anti-access weapon that carries strike capability far into the second island chain, said Richard Fisher, senior fellow, International Assessment and Strategy Center. "This is important because the United States has barely started to respond to China's first generation anti-access ensemble targeting the first island chain, like the DF-21D ASBM."

Fisher believes that the DF-26's ASBM capability is another sign that China is winning the "anti-access" versus "access" arms race with the US.

China also paraded two supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles: the DF-10A (formerly CJ-10) and the air-launched YJ-12. Erickson said that while China may not have progressed as far as it wants with DF-26 targeting support, "it probably already has sufficient surface wave stations to enable the DF-10 to cover the approaches to the Taiwan Strait."

During the parade the Chinese Air Force flew its upgraded H-6K medium-range bomber, which can now carry six YJ-12 anti-ship cruise missiles, and China has already indicated it plans to outfit its Song, Yuan and Shang-class attack submarines with the new YJ-18 supersonic anti-ship missile, Fisher said.

The fact that China showcased new anti-ship cruise and ballistic missiles together at the parade underscores arguments that China plans to overwhelm the US Navy with saturation strikes during a war, Fisher said.
 

AssassinsMace

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This article claims the Pentagon has known about the DF-26 since 2007 and the US has had plenty of time to develop countermeasures. Interesting since no one has known about DF-26 ASBM until yesterday and not to mention that the only known speculative ASBM has been the DF-21D which has only been talked about since 2011 as some of these articles mention.
 

Schumacher

Senior Member
Is it that much different to place the ship tracking and targeting tech on different ballistic missile and warheads ? Be it short or medium or intercontinental ranged ?
If they have the required satellite tracking coverage, it's likely not rocket science, pun intended, to put the tech on DF5 or 31 to target a carrier on the other side of the Pacific.
 
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plawolf

Lieutenant General
Is it that much different to place the ship tracking and targeting tech on different ballistic missile and warheads ? Be it short or medium or intercontinental ranged ?
If they have the required satellite tracking coverage, it's likely not rocket science, pun intended, to put the tech on DF5 or 31 to target a carrier off the coast of California.

Exponentially more difficult.

The further the range, the greater the speed of the re-entry vehicle.

DF21 IRBMs have a terminal velocity of M10, an ICBM will be clocking in at nearly M20, with all the additional heat shielding, manoeuvring and other assorted problems and difficulties that carries.

Even if you solve the challenges of developing an ICBN that can hit a target as small as a ship, you then have target acquisition and tracking difficulties, which are all made harder then longer the distance from your target.

And lastly, and probably most importantly, you have the problem of game theory.

Suppose you overcome all the challenges and difficulties associated with an ICBM AShBM, what do yon imagine the Americans will think when they detect an Chinese ICBM (or more likely many if you are going ship hunting with conventional warheads) coming their way, with projected points of impacts along the US west coast?

Somehow I doubt they will wait until the missiles hit before formulating and executing their response, and suddenly you had an inadvertent full scale nuclear war on your hands.

Incidentally, its also for this last reason I think global prompt strike is a total non-starter, well, as far as targeting nuclear armed state goes.
 

antiterror13

Brigadier
Interesting comment by Mark Stokes who for years has been researching and studying ASBM

I hope the nay sayer will wake up from their slumber Forget about Air Sea Battle. China now has longer range ASBM with a range of 4000 km

TAIPEI — China showcased its growing capability to deny the US Navy access to the maritime domain of both the East China Sea and South China Sea during a celebratory parade Thursday commemorating the 70th anniversary of its victory over imperialist Japan.
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three fighter aircraft that took part in the parade are actually pirated copies of foreign fighter aircraft, including the J-11B (Sukhoi Su-27), carrier-borne J-15 (Su-33) Flying Shark, and the J-10 (Israeli Lavi).

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The fact that China showcased new anti-ship cruise and ballistic missiles together at the parade underscores arguments that China plans to overwhelm the US Navy with saturation strikes during a war, Fisher said.

pirated copies of foreign fighter???????
It shows how good the writer is .... enough said

Also it is likely China has already better AShBM than DF-26
 
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AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Well if one remembers all the hoopla over Prompt Global Strike, it was expected the targeted nuclear country wait before reacting. Now that the tables have turned, especially with China developing hypersonic vehicles, in order to deter their use, any launch will be considered nuclear. They don't need to wait for confirmation.
 
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