Sorry, again, we disagree. The logisitics of mounting a large "surprise" attack, and then the necessary logistics of maintaining it will not go unnnoticed IMHO. That entire area is under constant surveillance scrutiy.
The ROCAF will allso be there with their own aircraft to interdict as will the anti-air defenses they have amassed...and I would not discount them.
It is most likely that the "surprise" attack will be launched from ballistic missiles by the scores that are already there and require little preparation. Trying to get hundreds of aircraft into the air at one time is a different matter.
My guess is that an initial attack will be defended by the ROCAF princially, but then the US will be on scene and any air superiority will shift back...amking the invasion virtually impossible. but those are all simply my own opinions.
I consider ballistic missiles as a likelihood, but I doubt they'd be used as extensively as you may believe. I also believe they would not be used without it being in conjunction with an air attack. I'm thinking a ballistic missile attack aiming at airbases and air defenses, mainly those away from major civillian areas would be the first of the strikes to land.
However, quickly following up would be LS-6s and DH-10s. LS-6s being aimed at many of the air defenses in place and some other strategic air defense assats. HARMs would be right behind those and involve KH-31Ps and YJ-91s. Then cruise missiles would come in and finally the actual few squadrons of aircraft for air attack would come in.
A first wave configured as such would be incredibly deadly. The intial ballistic missiles could severely damage airbases and possibly destroy aircraft as well as personnel. They would also cause damage to early warning radar and air defense. The following LS-6s would be impossible to intercept and as a result they would be target towards air defense batteries, the most capable and some of the shorter-range weapons. Then HARMs would target early warning radars and air defense radars. After that cruise missiles would move in on the severely reduced capabilities and target many more defense facilities, some air and air defense other more important logistical centers and, in particular weapons depots.
Finally a few squadrons of aircraft would fly in to take out any and all fighters launched as well as AWACs.
If anyone can find a significant flaw in that specific scenario, please tell me. I think in essence it is sound, however. With that kind of capability and Taiwan relying so heavily on foreign weapons in insufficient supplies a significant Chinese air attack and especially any major attacks on weapons storage would be damning to them.
This all capable of being achieve from significant distance and in plenty of time to retreat into the safety of Chinese air space.
The_Zergling
2 to 4 aircraft are for each airfield, not the entire island. From what I've heard from my friends in the Taiwan military (not Air Force though, so make of this what you may) Taiwan constantly has radar trained on areas where Chinese fighters patrol, and generally will always respond to a Chinese flight with one of his own. The distance to the middle line of the strait (DMZ?) is constantly monitored, and if Chinese fighters get a bit closer then more flights are launched.
This may not be a sufficient defense should a full-scale air raid be launched, but basically it means that the Taiwanese will probably always have some sort of early warning system preparing them to brace for the first wave of attack, and then react accordingly.
In a first wave I wouldn't imagine Raptors to be all that useful, however as it is doubtful that a single wave would be able to immobilize the entire ROCAF, subsequent strikes would have to be made and for maximum effectiveness, around the clock to take advantage of the ROCAF's limited resources and equipment. Here F-22s supplementing Taiwanese fighters would come in handy.
Which is why I'm considering it in terms of waves of weapons in the initial attack. Taiwan can only see maybe 200 miles inland at best.
The first attack being DH-10, LACMs, launched from well beyond Taiwanese radar range, the next being LS-6s, launched from significant range to be difficult to detect before they've launched at which point reaction time will be measure in minutes. Then would be HARMs, which would have ot bring aircraft close to mid-point, even slightly over, but they would do so quickly and quickly retreat. In addition, before any aircraft are in detection distance my thoughts would be that a ballistic missiles attack would be launched on all major airbases, an emphasis on weapon storage. This would severely inhibit the ability for the ROCAF to respond to any flights from bases near the straits the attacks on weapons would also inhibit their ability to do anything even if they can scramble some fighters.
