CHESS: US positioning there chess piece around China

IMO it's impossible for the PLAN to stockpile an invasion force without detection. As soon as they gather transport ships and start loading military assets en mass, we'd be seeing up to the minuet news reports on Taiwan media. There's simply way too many eyes watching.

However I also think people are way overly obsessed over the Taiwan invasion scenario or something down in the Nan Sha islands area. It's been 2 decades and I still haven't seen any sign of the supposed giant resource deposits in the Spratleys. I think they've finally realized that the petro field is actually over on the Malaysia side and they're already tapping it. :rofl:

What I do see as a realistic scenario, is if ROC makes significant moves toward TI, the PLAN may stage an invasion of Matsu and Kinmen as a show of force. Those islets are much smaller and within shelling range from PRC. If the PLAN takes one of the islets by force, the ROCN is in no posiiton to recover it, and the US may protest and send a naval armada over as show of force, but prolly wouldn't attempt to "liberate' the tiny islet so long as Taiwan itself is safe.

From PRC point of view, if ROC declares TI and they're in no position to recover it militarily, they could go for Matsu and Kinmen as a face-saving military action. "well those rebels declared TI... but we showed them and recovered some of our territory" etc. It'd prolly result in a military build-up and stand-off in the area for 10-20 years before things cool down.

Taiwan would let control of Kinmen and Matsu slip if China attacked. Last year they decided to re-deploy the 584th Armoured Brigade to Taipei from Kinmen, which will then be expanded with more men and vehicles. This shows they're focusing on defending "core territory" rather than trying to vainly hold on to outlying islands, which is the right plan IMHO.

Not saying the troops there wouldn't fight, but they'd certainly not waste assets trying to hold or retake them.

Gentlemen, If you want to keep this thread open discontinue the ROC Vs PRC chit chat. We all know how those threads wind up.>>> IN FLAMES<<<. Otherwise I will close this thread.:nono:

Discuss the US forces positioning & re-positioniong in the Pacific and their capablities.

bd popeye super moderator

Plus, the currently one 071 won't do it alone, we discussed that in the "PLAN amphibious assault capability" thread I think.
It's just the game we call life. (I'm so poetic today )
China does a military buildup (all the new stuff coming out) and the US sais "we're aware of it".
I believe the NK issue is much more imminent. Some people might get the oppinion the US is deeply involved elswhere and can't afford to "police" another area. The US just tries to state that this is not the case.
And that's only one SQ. I don't think you can say "positioning around China", since this SQ will be stationed at one AFB.

IMO those F-22s are on Guam to get their first "real world" deployment experiece in a theater they are most likely to operate and to check their interoperability with USN CSGs. Let's not forget that Guam hosts many valuable assets of both USN & USAF and is at very strategic location. This is the Diego Garsia of the Pacific!
It cold also be the way to free up extra F-15s for possible airsrikes on Iran. On the other hand, "show of force" aspect can't be discounted either- as a responce to unveiling of J-10 and ASAT test, not to mention NK missile tests.
There is also a possibility of them deploying to the ME later on a short notice- sending the F-22s there now would surely be viewed as escalation and overt preparation for striking Iran. See post #68- I updated it.

Sorry, we disagree. The ROC defense forces will hold the ground for several days (Navy, Air Force, etc.)...and with US assets in the region, close by, that will make it possible for the US to interevene long before the boots ever touch the ground.

Besides, with aerial refueling, US F-22s and F-15s can be over the island in short order in any case, and once there, they will make a difference in the air.

The PLAN and PLAAF have to get total air dominance and total sea dominance before they ever commit to amphibious operations, and that will not happen in a few hours. If the US has assets in the region and can respond in a few hours (and is willing to), I do not believe they PRC will be able to obtain it at all.

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I don't intend to have an ROC-PRC discussion. My point strictly relates to U.S. ability to respond to an inital surprise attack quickly enough to make a difference in that attack.

Okinawa is the closest airbase that I know of in regards to Taiwan. That base is 400 miles away. Even at supercruise, it would take an F-22 around 20 minutes I'd surmise to make it over to Taipei. This isn't even considering how long it would take to get over the Taiwan strait or other parts of the island. This is also not considering the time to get the aircraft in the air.

It would essentially be impossible to detect any initial attack and it would be fast and overwhelming. Essentially unavertable. The Taiwan straits are only 100 miles wide and the best radar coverage Taiwan has is maybe 200 miles inland and how capable they would be of recognizing a mass attack quickly before it occurs in time for F-22s to be scrambled and make it to the Straits is limited, considering they could be scrambled in the minutes before the attack began. The attack would then last maybe 30 minutes before the fighters would be able to fly back to China. That's the window we'd have to intervene. The time to scramble sufficient F-22s, even if we really pushed it and the ability to get them over there even at supercruise would just not be enough.

In my view, even F-22s aren't really viable for the missions because they'd end up just loitering around after the attack and possibly awaiting a second wave. The first wave, however, would be capable of making the end result clear.

North Korea is just simply weak enough that we don't need stealth fighters. Their ground forces are given the biggest emphasis in training and strategy. They're largely stuck in old Soviet doctrine with regards to air power. Not to say they couldn't prove incredibly deadly, however, F-22s would be extreme overkill and ultimately not deal a heavy blow to the major ground offensive that would be ongoing.

My point being their placement in Asia does little more than make empty threats. They aren't really needed there. I just think they'd be more useful in an eventual confrontation with Iran.

In Iran there is a military equipped with American F-14s and Phoenix missiles, even if you don't believe they have them it is certainly a danger, as well as Tor-M1s. Even the hawks could pose a threat to our normal fighters.

If you fly at M1.5 at greate altitude, it takes about 25min to cover 400miles, if you now include climbing and accelerating that's at least 30min I think.
To cover the the straits at low altitude with M0.9 takes around 10min. If the PLAAF aircraft come in low, range is low as well and they would have to be transfered to a near the strait airfield or being refuled in the area wich couldn't go totaly unnoticed I think. And if you only take aircraft from that military region, numbers are not high enough to fight a decissive battle.
If you want greater range, they have to fly high, wich also increases the detection range by the taiwanese.
And since that part of the world is really watched closely, it's at least hard to do a suprise attack of that scale.
So, if the Raptors are nearly instantly scrambled they could perhaps hunt down some of the fleeing aircraft. Taking them away from a follow on attack wich would have to occur, IMO. And after such an incident, survilliance would be increased strongly, giving still more time for reaction.

I hope I didn't come too close to a full war confrontation, since my intention was only to respond to Vlad Plasmius thoughts in tactical aspects.

I suggest you look briefly at the assets China has near Taiwan. They have hundreds of aicraft and, they have at least one if not two squadrons of Su-30MKKs withing strike range. Also, the cruise missiles China has can be launched from over 900 miles away. The LS-6 can be launched from nearly 200 miles away. Also, air distance of even 900 miles at subsonic speed can be covered in a little over an hour. When being launched by surprise those aircraft will be undetected until they're about 200 or 100 miles away from the Taiwanese cost.

That gives very little time for scrambling fighters. The amount of activity need to carry all this out would be fairly easy to conceal as well. Also, an initial air attack could be launched right when troops begin getting prepared. So the possibility of detecting troop movements before hand is limited.

It would only be a few guys fitting weapons onto the aircraft. It's not like there'd be huge fleet movements or anything like that.

A surprise air attack and naval attack could be mounted quickly and easily. Obviously not an occupation force, but even some amount of troops maybe under 50,000 could be ready at the drop of a hat and arousing little suspicion before the attack.

Since this kind of attack could be launched without warning, it would mitigate our effectiveness in responding to it.

Vlad Plasmius said:

I suggest you look briefly at the assets China has near Taiwan. They have hundreds of aicraft and, they have at least one if not two squadrons of Su-30MKKs withing strike range. Also, the cruise missiles China has can be launched from over 900 miles away. The LS-6 can be launched from nearly 200 miles away. Also, air distance of even 900 miles at subsonic speed can be covered in a little over an hour. When being launched by surprise those aircraft will be undetected until they're about 200 or 100 miles away from the Taiwanese cost.

That gives very little time for scrambling fighters. The amount of activity need to carry all this out would be fairly easy to conceal as well. Also, an initial air attack could be launched right when troops begin getting prepared. So the possibility of detecting troop movements before hand is limited.

It would only be a few guys fitting weapons onto the aircraft. It's not like there'd be huge fleet movements or anything like that.

A surprise air attack and naval attack could be mounted quickly and easily. Obviously not an occupation force, but even some amount of troops maybe under 50,000 could be ready at the drop of a hat and arousing little suspicion before the attack.

Since this kind of attack could be launched without warning, it would mitigate our effectiveness in responding to it.

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Sorry, again, we disagree. The logisitics of mounting a large "surprise" attack, and then the necessary logistics of maintaining it will not go unnnoticed IMHO. That entire area is under constant surveillance scrutiy.

The ROCAF will allso be there with their own aircraft to interdict as will the anti-air defenses they have amassed...and I would not discount them.

It is most likely that the "surprise" attack will be launched from ballistic missiles by the scores that are already there and require little preparation. Trying to get hundreds of aircraft into the air at one time is a different matter.

My guess is that an initial attack will be defended by the ROCAF princially, but then the US will be on scene and any air superiority will shift back...amking the invasion virtually impossible. but those are all simply my own opinions.

Ok, good points here, but if you argue that way it's difficult to be in a position to defend Taiwan at all. Because There are perhaps only 2-4 aircraft ready to take off on short notice and not the whole SQ. Those numbers are insufficient anyway. That means you need to have a CVN close by all the time, and one is at least in the area anyway (forward deployed to Japan). So I think the Raptors are there to be a good suplement.