Chengdu next gen combat aircraft (?J-36) thread

[Wrought]

I'm inclined to believe his assertion is made in good faith, even if some here might disagree. He may have reasons for his perspective, even if they are flawed. I think it's more productive to approach his viewpoint with an open mind and a willingness to listen, rather than being overly combative—assuming he responds of course.

In general from a narrative perspective, up until the day of showdown, I think it's better for the US public to underestimate the PLA's capabilities than to overestimate. This is why I'm actually fine with a lot of EN misinfo on PLA we see around.

(On the other hand, the CN public should absolutely have 110% confidence in the PLA)

It's not difficult to understand why he believes the way he does. Tyler Rogoway is an American writing in English for an American audience. His sources are American, or at least English-speaking. His knowledge is drawn from those sources, filtered through their lens, and his conclusions are informed as such. He knows far more about American everything than he knows about Chinese anything.

He can't know what he doesn't know. As far as he is concerned, unknown unknowns don't exist (otherwise they would be known unknowns). This is true for everyone, of course, but it's especially obvious when you are a third party watching these sort of cross-language misconceptions as bilingual observer. The flaw is always the same—the limits of your own personal knowledge are not the limits of reality.

 

[banjex]

After four years of Bidenomics I am no longer so sure

They've been rotting long before Goodbiden.

 

[00CuriousObserver]

He can't know what he doesn't know. As far as he is concerned, unknown unknowns don't exist (otherwise they would be known unknowns)

This isn't necessarily true. You can absolutely beware that unknown unknowns exist, without them becoming known unknowns.

 

[Wrought]

This isn't necessarily true. You can absolutely beware that unknown unknowns exist, without them becoming known unknowns.

Right, my wording was not precise. Knowing about the abstract concept of unknown unknowns is not the same as knowing about specific examples, at which point they become known unknowns. It's the difference between "something is unknown" vs "this thing is unknown."

 

[ougoah]

This isn't necessarily true. You can absolutely beware that unknown unknowns exist, without them becoming known unknowns.

But this requires intelligence and critical thinking. Something many take for granted but has proven to be overwhelmingly absent in the western military watcher/enthusiast community. By my own experience, it's roughly a 1:10 ratio of level headed to some spectrum of ignorant plus heavily emotional and biased combo.

But someone's already said earlier. This is exactly what is needed by China to keep the wool over their eyes for as long as possible. After all while their military leadership is much less naive about Chinese capabilities and actually capable of intelligence, the ignorant masses and their opinions do have some effect on their policy making and place pressure on government and military apparatus. Not to mention, plenty of these types of civilians become policy makers or at least, shapers. It's not great advantage but them being naive only helps more when reality sets in further.

 

[Temstar]

TWZ's long essay is finally here

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Just posting a link for now as I'm sure there's plenty to talk about

There are also unconfirmed claims circulating that Wang discussed the J-36 after its public debut on an apparently well-known talk show in China wherein he re-emphasized the importance of electrical power generation above all else when it comes to the jet’s propulsion system. He is also said to have stressed that ‘fighter’ is a misnomer when describing the aircraft, which will be capable of performing a much more diverse array of missions.

So tonight when PLAGF Major General Ayi, Chief Designer of CAC Yangji and ROC Ministry of National Defence chief Laoshi inevitably talk about this article I'm gong to have to pay 100% attention and take notes then?

 

[00CuriousObserver]

So tonight when PLAGF Major General Ayi, Chief Designer of CAC Yangji and ROC Ministry of National Defence chief Laoshi inevitably talk about this article I'm gong to have to pay 100% attention and take notes then?

ROC MoD chief's name is Shilao, not Laoshi. But yes, personally I'd pay attention to CAC designer Yangji the most.

 

[siegecrossbow]

So tonight when PLAGF Major General Ayi, Chief Designer of CAC Yangji and ROC Ministry of National Defence chief Laoshi inevitably talk about this article I'm gong to have to pay 100% attention and take notes then?

So the paper dragon military is run by military enthusiast podcasters? The SeeSeePee is finished!

 

[Wrought]

So tonight when PLAGF Major General Ayi, Chief Designer of CAC Yangji and ROC Ministry of National Defence chief Laoshi inevitably talk about this article I'm gong to have to pay 100% attention and take notes then?

The worst part is that he literally included @Deino's tweet right below it.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1874087980492792145

 

[Temstar]

So the paper dragon military is run by military enthusiast podcasters? The SeeSeePee is finished!

Frankly I'll trust Major General Ayi to run defence ministry of a major nation before I trust Pete Hegseth.

This says a lot about the state of western PLA OSINT that in terms of human to human connection for something as important as 6th gen fighter they rely on not even just directly watching the Guancha Trio, but people here in this thread watching the Guancha Trio and then accurately relaying that information back into English for dissemination.

At least pay for a Guancha subscription (or failing that, a Qingting FM premium annual package like me) so Ayi can hit his KPI and can be promoted to senior editor.