Chengdu next gen combat aircraft (?J-36) thread

EmoBirb

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To be fair, that's more of implication of J-10 and then J-20 and J-36 programs. The engineering talent in China is immense.

By the way, back off a little bit on 7th gen talk. We don't know if that will even be needed, since it will be all drone from that point on.


One other thing to consider is that it also probably doesn't need as much agility because it's so hard to detect, that it can get into right position without being countered. I mean you can trot is out by itself, but ideally it's going there with CCAs, which then mask it's position also.

I do wonder if subsonic maneuverability will even matter for J-36 if it can easily go supersonic without afterburners.

I think even the larger NGAD proposal is probably closer to the SAC project than J-36. it remains to be seen if DoD will go for a more J-36 like proposal. I just don't see how you can be competitive with J-36 unless it's really large.

I think at this point, we have to assume NGAD will be picked up by Trump admin. So, it will be interesting to see what NGAD will look like. I don't expect it to fly for a while, because DoD requirement has to account for J-36 at this point.
> I don't expect it to fly for a while, because DoD requirement has to account for J-36 at this point.

They were probably aware of the program that led to the J-36 and it's requirements for a few years now. I doubt that the US with their massive and well funded intelligence apparatus wasn't aware of what's going on on the other side of the pacific until recently. Obviously I'm also certain that Chinese intelligence probably knows far more about US efforts than we do as well.

Both sides most likely considered the others efforts in their development.
 

EmoBirb

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No, because H-20 does have even higher power generation potential and range. It can also carry more ammunitions.

Let's put it this way, with single refuel, H-20 can get close enough to Hawaii to attack Pacific fleet base and hit naval related infrastructure. You can hit most targets in Australia without refueling.

I would agree that J-36's presence makes H-20 a little less important.

Having long range is really a game changer
Not only that. I can definitely see the value in a multi-engine, subsonic, low observable aircraft in an Anti-Surface context too. Given that a potential war against the United States would mostly play out in the naval domain, an aircraft that can more efficiently loiter, do ELINT and could potentially launch super/hypersonic ALCMs and ALBMs against naval tragets from a closer range than land based assets may provide a certain advantage that's desirable. All of that with less chances of being detected.

I may be wrong, but a B-2 took part in the SINKEX portion of RIMPAC 2024 where she sunk USS Tarawa. The Soviets also had a lot of sympathy for the idea of using bombers in Anti-Surface missions. And while a B-2, B-21 or H-20 don't provide the supersonic speed a Tu-22M3, provides, they are more difficult to detect, which could mean they can launch at closer range and thus reduce the reaction time until the arrival of the missile, which in turn increases the chance of sinking the vessel. Obviously shipborne fighters could be a potential threat, but I'd assume a bomber would loiter still relatively far away from it's target, maybe even being part of a kill-web together with UAVs, satellites, surface combatants and other manned aircraft. This kind of approach and the associated buzzword seem to be all the rage now, after all.

So yeah, I can definitely see the H-20 and B-21 being used in such a scenario. I think we'd be pretty old-fashioned to just assume it's about bringing bombs from point A to point B and hoping to not get shot down. From all we know so far the B-21 is being designed to be a true multirole aircraft. And I doubt that the H-20 will be purely focused on the bomber mission like the B-2 was in the 1980s. I think that would be selling short the talent and thought the folks at Xi'an are putting into it.
 

zyklon

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No, because H-20 does have even higher power generation potential and range. It can also carry more ammunitions.

Let's put it this way, with single refuel, H-20 can get close enough to Hawaii to attack Pacific fleet base and hit naval related infrastructure. You can hit most targets in Australia without refueling.

I would agree that J-36's presence makes H-20 a little less important.

Having long range is really a game changer

These figures are obviously speculative estimates, if not outright guesses, and will inevitably be updated and vary depending on the mission profile and the propulsion systems ultimately installed on the J-36 and H-20; however, the current combat radius "guesstimates" for these two platforms w/o aerial refueling are generally speaking 3,000km and 5,000km, respectively (please don't hesitate to speak up if that's off).

The difference here is undoubtedly material, but what are the odds that the PLAAF will actually be able to deploy the H-20 against targets in Hawaii and Australia w/o the J-36 and/or other manned and unmanned systems flying nearby as escorts?

Moreover, if J-36s will need to escort H-20s anyhow, why not just employ J-36s and attritable CCAs to accomplish the mission instead?

Not going to deny that the H-20 will almost certainly benefit from a larger payload capacity than the J-36, but unless the former can supercruise, the J-36's superior speed and by extension sortie rate may offset some of the H-20's payload advantage.

The PLAAF will ideally want to be equipped with both the J-36 and H-20, and preferably in sizable numbers.

However, in a world of finite resources, the PLAAF may get more bang for buck out of the J-36 than the H-20, especially in the next ten or fifteen years or so, unless striking aimpoints in Hawaii or Australia is of equal or greater priority than hitting aimpoints in Guam and elsewhere on the Second Island Chain.

And while a B-2, B-21 or H-20 don't provide the supersonic speed a Tu-22M3, provides, they are more difficult to detect, which could mean they can launch at closer range and thus reduce the reaction time until the arrival of the missile, which in turn increases the chance of sinking the vessel.

A lot of things are stealthier than a Tu-22M3, but a H-20 is not necessarily stealthier or less vulnerable than a J-36.

Moreover, if minimizing reaction time is the goal here, wouldn't it be more optimal to hit naval targets with HGV armed DF-17 and DF-27 missiles cued by airborne and orbital ISR assets?
 

Nautilus

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Moreover, if J-36s will need to escort H-20s anyhow, why not just employ J-36s and attritable CCAs to accomplish the mission instead?
When attacking well-defended targets you need to reach high salvo density to pierce through the defensive onion, which is easier to accomplish with a smaller number of more payload-efficient platforms. To accomplish the same with J-36s you need to dedicate a larger number of them to the mission, where they might serve better in addressing other needs elsewhere.
 

bebops

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DoD and their contractors are probably going back to the drawing board to come up with a plane to counter J36.

It won't be easy task because we keep hearing they have funding problems... To counter it, they need to come up with a 3 engine plane. As we all know, b21 with 2 engine already cost 700m per piece. A 3 engine plane will cost similarly to B2, which is 1bil.. simply, they cannot afford it. They don't have much option due to money constricts.
 

kurutoga

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DoD and their contractors are probably going back to the drawing board to come up with a plane to counter J36.

It won't be easy task because we keep hearing they have funding problems... To counter it, they need to come up with a 3 engine plane. As we all know, b21 with 2 engine already cost 700m per piece. A 3 engine plane will cost similarly to B2, which is 1bil.. simply, they cannot afford it. They don't have much option due to money constricts.

But why? US is still the largest military plane producer in the world. They have the scale. Also, these private MIC firms are supposed to compete to lower the price. Even if they ask for very high profit margin, the price for B21 should be 100-200 mil, (say 2x F-35) not 600-700 mil. Labor and R&D cost can't explain it.

Also there was some video explaining that the Chinese tooling are quite expensive for military projects, because they aren't allowed to use European CNCs. The US MIC would not have any issues like that.

"System Engineering" was supposed to be America's biggest strength. Managing large complex projects within budget on time was what made America great in the past.

I know there are jokes about $3000 hammer but those are jokes, and the Chinese MIC may also have high price like that for certain particular items. Bottom line is I want to see a full scale NGAD. Hope they can afford it.
 
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mack8

Junior Member
Another wonderful CGI of J-36

from 高山CG

View attachment 142921

Whoa...:eek:

Not the topic i know but man the J-50 needs the love of this awesome CGI artist so badly too.

Anyway, pet theory: The americans found out at the last second what CAC and SAC are cooking, hence why NGAD is on pause. If my understanding is correct their last NGAD iteration was that small fighter, which is a toy compared to J-36 and J-50. Whatever they say now is just copium and public consumption. My bet is that right now they are feverishly revisiting their big NGAD fightercruiser concepts that supposedly they abandoned due to cost and they'll choose one of them if they haven't already. The americans are not good at losing a mine is bigger than yours contest. The crucial part of all this though is that THEY are behind now, even in a most compressed scenario it will take several years for their NGAD to fly. If China keeps the foot on the pedal they have a good shot at keeping the americans in the backview mirror from now on.
 
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