Can China wage "small wars"?

Nethappy · Apr 28, 2006

Under these circumstance I believe China would most likely exploit a diplomatic solution and most country would comply to the Chinese goverment to use chartered aircraft for an evacuation.

When all fail then it could easily sent in the SF. China SF should have the capablites of running a clandestine operteration or something. All they really need to do it go in fast rally up as many Chinese as possible and protect them and get the hell out.

It shouldn't be hard for such an opertaton, China

Finn McCool · Apr 28, 2006

isthvan said:
Congratulations you have just managed to kill half of civilian population around SAM sites and destroy maybe 1/20 of SAMs and that only if they were to stupid to move them from known sites... You know like Serbs did . How on h... you think to destroy SAMs with ballistics missiles? They do not have enough accuracy for something like that, SAM batteries are mobile systems and not enemy airfields... So you would cause severe casualties to civilian population, spend hundred millions of dollars worth BM and turn public opinion in enemy’s favor without cousing any damage to its air defenses…

You notice I never said that the ballixtic (and cruise) missles would fully destroy the enemies SAM capability. Their task would to be to suppress the enemies defences, keeping them occupied, destroying some and preventing them from being able to concentrate on aircraft. This would not work against the United States for example, because it has the capability to handle that many threats, but against a poorer country without a state of the art air defence, it would serve to "overload" the air defence system if used in conjunction with what few electronic warfare capabilites that China has and with air strikes. Basically one site wouldn't be able to support another, and with the chaos caused by missles raining down on your radars, SAMs and command posts, it would be very difficult to mount a coordinated defence. The air defence network could be defeated in detail, divide and conquer. Bludegon the air defence to stun it, then go in for the kill.

And I don't really think that the PRC is all that concerned with civillian casualties. That is a luxury only nations with precision capability can afford. and who in their right mind is going to sanction China?! "Yeah, I'm gonna deprive my self of trade with the world's fastest growing, second biggest economy because they killed some Indonesian people." Not trying to start a flame war, but as Sampan Viking said, money is China's biggest weapon. Nations aren't going to give up trade with China. However, they will use it as a chance to criticize Chnia as much as they can.

Golden Horde copied my name! That's my name in Defence Forum.

Nethappy · Apr 29, 2006

And I don't really think that the PRC is all that concerned with civillian casualties. That is a luxury only nations with precision capability can afford. and who in their right mind is going to sanction China?! "Yeah, I'm gonna deprive my self of trade with the world's fastest growing, second biggest economy because they killed some Indonesian people."

Under current world political situation the only kind of war China going to get involed in would be a low-intense. In these circumstance a disregard of civillian life and causing large civillian casualties is totally unacceptable no matter who draw fire frist. It may not be saction, but Thank You Finn McCool, you just effectively destory all the support, goodwill and soft power China been working so hard for the last two decade.

You notice I never said that the ballixtic (and cruise) missles would fully destroy the enemies SAM capability. Their task would to be to suppress the enemies defences, keeping them occupied, destroying some and preventing them from being able to concentrate on aircraft. This would not work against the United States for example,

You can not hit something the size of a SAM with a BM, you just end up hitting something else and hope it not a town or City.

DF-21 MRBM would be best as it have a CEP of 300-400m and it would NOT be aimed at the Air Defence but rather at an Airforce base. Which are nomarlly in remote area, away from the dense of the population. Simultaneously an combind air strike flying in at low level would be needed to destory the Air defence and comand centre. Then hopefully these BM can destory or damage part of the Airforce base and minimizes the enemy figther operation capability and the airstrike destory and minimizes the airdefence and C3 cpability. Hopefully they can gain air superiority.

isthvan · Apr 29, 2006

Finn McCool said:
You notice I never said that the ballixtic (and cruise) missles would fully destroy the enemies SAM capability. Their task would to be to suppress the enemies defences, keeping them occupied, destroying some and preventing them from being able to concentrate on aircraft. This would not work against the United States for example, because it has the capability to handle that many threats, but against a poorer country without a state of the art air defence, it would serve to "overload" the air defence system if used in conjunction with what few electronic warfare capabilites that China has and with air strikes. Basically one site wouldn't be able to support another, and with the chaos caused by missles raining down on your radars, SAMs and command posts, it would be very difficult to mount a coordinated defence. The air defence network could be defeated in detail, divide and conquer. Bludegon the air defence to stun it, then go in for the kill.

And I don't really think that the PRC is all that concerned with civillian casualties. That is a luxury only nations with precision capability can afford. and who in their right mind is going to sanction China?! "Yeah, I'm gonna deprive my self of trade with the world's fastest growing, second biggest economy because they killed some Indonesian people." Not trying to start a flame war, but as Sampan Viking said, money is China's biggest weapon. Nations aren't going to give up trade with China. However, they will use it as a chance to criticize Chnia as much as they can.

Golden Horde copied my name! That's my name in Defence Forum.

My point was that with BM strikes you would destroy small or none part of opponents air defenses, you would alert its defenses and cause considerable civilian casualties… By so doing you would firstly completle lost element of surprise and secondly shift international public opinion on his side…
Since you taken Indonesia for your example lets see who would care? Since it is largest Muslim country on the world you would have mulas screaming jihad from Bosnia to Saudi Arabia and Iran (by-by oil agreements), then since it is tourist destination for every European with enough cash you could expect few dead Europeans and so you have European investments shift from “world's fastest growing, second biggest economy” to some other country with cheep labor (India, Pakistan, Russia, South America) and so on…

Nethappy said:
DF-21 MRBM would be best as it have a CEP of 300-400m and it would NOT be aimed at the Air Defence but rather at an Airforce base. Which are nomarlly in remote area, away from the dense of the population.

Air force bases in small countries are mostly located near on in mayor cities because there airfields have dual roles (both civilian and military)… It is not same thing if you are score hit on enemy airstrip or for example Air France 747 full of tourists…

SampanViking · Apr 29, 2006

The Solomons are just too small and too far away for China to really care. They have got soom good PR by rescuing its citizens and bringing them back home.

The money arguement is about its withdrawal not use, so it costs China nothing, quite the opposite let Australia and New Zealand put their hands in their pockets, now the Islanders have burnt down their Commercial District and chased away their business community.

Do not underestimate the value and quantity of Chinese money sloshing around the Asia Pacific region through either Trade or Aid. The loss of access to this particular gravy train, by any small country in the region will hurt and hurt a lot.

If similar problems were to occur in countries closer to home, I still think China would be reluctant to use a military response. This is not out of fear or inability, but simply because it is Politically Expedient. It plays better to portray itself as the victim and to use muscular diplomacy to economically isolate the offending country.

I think it would require a direct Government ordered attack by regular forces against Chinese territory or possesions to actually provoke a military retalitory strike. Somehow I do not see to many small countries queing up for this privilige.

Roger604 · Apr 29, 2006

isthvan said:
Congratulations Roger you just made worst possible thing you could do… Bombing civilian population( even if they are angry mob) of other country is stupidest thing China could do… You know that 5 minutes after bombing run you would have open hunt seson on your nationals, not to mention that Europeans and US will scream bloody murder and impose economical sanctions before you could say "sanctions":coffee: …
There are much better ways to protect your nationals in other contries and if you are interested how to do it look what Europeans and Americans do…

I would have thought that an angry mob targeting a particular ethnic group would be considered "irregular combatants" and use of force is justified. Assuming, of course, that the government is knowingly complacent.

Am I wrong?

The_Zergling · Apr 30, 2006

Something that we tend to forget when discussing "precision" weapons is that they still tend to cause heavy unwanted civilian casualties. Sure, your laser guided bomb is accurate enough to hit the building you want. However, when it is packed with a thousand pounds of explosives, more often than not it's going to take out the entire block.

Is it as bad as carpet bombing? Of course not. It's still going to piss off whoever's on the receiving end of the bombs, though.

isthvan · Apr 30, 2006

Roger604 said:
I would have thought that an angry mob targeting a particular ethnic group would be considered "irregular combatants" and use of force is justified. Assuming, of course, that the government is knowingly complacent.

Am I wrong?

If we talk about Darfur or Ruanda kind of situation where you have locals driving around armed Toyotas and killing ethnic minority they are “irregular combatants" and you bomb them to Hell if you want… But to bomb angry mob like in Solomon’s would be considered attacking civilian population…
If that would not be the case you would have bombs fouling every time riot starts… Denmark would bomb mobs in Syria; French would bomb mobs in Paris etc

Nethappy · Apr 30, 2006

Air force bases in small countries are mostly located near on in mayor cities because there airfields have dual roles (both civilian and military)… It is not same thing if you are score hit on enemy airstrip or for example Air France 747 full of tourists…

Well, if it was one of these small country, a few cruise missile aimed at C3ISR facilities would be enough to diverse attention from the main Air Strike and there airforce would poses limited challenge to the PLAAF.

Almost every nation would have at lease one airforce bases which is of limited to civilian and over a few km away from the capital city the, which is nomally their most important Base. Although there are a few expection.

SampanViking · Apr 30, 2006

It seems to me that there is a little confusion between a small war and civil unrest.

A small war is waged against a state with the Governement and its instruments of power being the primary targets.

Civil Unrest is just riotinging between a population and its own government. If it gets worse and rioters start arming and becoming militia, you can call it an insurgency. In these conditions, foriegners (esp wealthy foriegners) will become targets of opportunity for rioters etc.

If a govt however ceases to function because of unrest and this unrest threatens either a vital interest or to spread over the borders to your own territory, you may consider a military intervention as a form of Police Action, in order to re-establish order.

On that note, and maybe dangerously, I am surprised nobody has mentioned Nepal, which as an Ally of China, bordering a sensitive area, could be a prime candidate for a Police Action.

This could happen as a last ditch invitation by the King in order to retain his position, or after the event if the whole country descended into chaos.

Lets see if we can discuss these matters sensibly, otherwise........

Can China wage "small wars"?

Nethappy

NO WAR PLS

Finn McCool

Captain

Nethappy

NO WAR PLS

isthvan

Tailgunner

SampanViking

The Capitalist

Roger604

Senior Member

The_Zergling

Junior Member

isthvan

Tailgunner

Nethappy

NO WAR PLS

SampanViking

The Capitalist