Can China wage "small wars"?

I was going to open a new thread on the same topic, but seeming as someone has already done that, I'll post my ideas here. I had a thought about possible small war scenarios China might get involved in as it becomes more powerful. Heres an alternative example form the solomons. Lets say if China decides to join a coalition against a certain country threatening international interests or commiting mass atrocities, or if it finds a certain poorer country suppourting terrorists in areas such as Xinjiang. In this case there would probably be no invasion, but an aerial bombing campaign.
My question is - would China be able to mount a precision guided bombing campaign against a smaller and poorer power, like America did with Libya in the 80s and Serbia in the 90s? In my opinion, the scenario would involve H-6 missile bombers firing KD-65 precision missiles at key targets, and then waves of J-10s, Su-30s and possibly JH-7s mounting a precision bombing campaign against military targets, probably air bases and air defences. Long-range cruise missiles may be used if China can develop them. Comments please.

DPRKPTboat said:

I was going to open a new thread on the same topic, but seeming as someone has already done that, I'll post my ideas here. I had a thought about possible small war scenarios China might get involved in as it becomes more powerful. Heres an alternative example form the solomons. Lets say if China decides to join a coalition against a certain country threatening international interests or commiting mass atrocities, or if it finds a certain poorer country suppourting terrorists in areas such as Xinjiang. In this case there would probably be no invasion, but an aerial bombing campaign.
My question is - would China be able to mount a precision guided bombing campaign against a smaller and poorer power, like America did with Libya in the 80s and Serbia in the 90s? In my opinion, the scenario would involve H-6 missile bombers firing KD-65 precision missiles at key targets, and then waves of J-10s, Su-30s and possibly JH-7s mounting a precision bombing campaign against military targets, probably air bases and air defences. Long-range cruise missiles may be used if China can develop them. Comments please.

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I think that PLAAF momentarily can not do it ... PLAAF do not have real aerial refueling capability’s to operate outside region or any real SEAD capability to destroy enemy air defenses and they lack electronic warfare systems for jamming enemy communications and radar systems... PLAAF have fighters and bombers for job but like PLAN lacks logistics capability’s for that kind of war...

I think China would use its ballistic and missle capability to blanket the enemies most powerful air defence capabilites, such as SAM batteries. That way, you have a pretty good chance of destroying the target (especially becuase poorer countries lack the integrated radar and air defence capability to withstand a large missle attack.) without loosing any valueable J-10s SU-30s (eventually) FC-1s. Then what was still functioning of the air defence network would be picked apart as DPRK was saying. The more nimble craft would then go in to destroy ground targets and the enemies air force.

This could not be eaisily done far away from China. Lacking aerial refueling, Ships capable of conducting crusie missle attacks against targets on land and any sort of foreign base network, China simply can't engage in this sort of "small war." It can mount a rescue mission into the Solomons, but I was just using that as an example. It is interesting to think that China can give the USN a severe bloody nose, but would have a lot of trouble taking down, say, Brunei, Papua New Guinea, or any country outside of East Asia, no matter how weak.

Finn McCool said:

I think China would use its ballistic and missle capability to blanket the enemies most powerful air defence capabilites, such as SAM batteries. That way, you have a pretty good chance of destroying the target (especially becuase poorer countries lack the integrated radar and air defence capability to withstand a large missle attack.) without loosing any valueable J-10s SU-30s (eventually) FC-1s. Then what was still functioning of the air defence network would be picked apart as DPRK was saying. The more nimble craft would then go in to destroy ground targets and the enemies air force.

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Congratulations you have just managed to kill half of civilian population around SAM sites and destroy maybe 1/20 of SAMs and that only if they were to stupid to move them from known sites... You know like Serbs did . How on h... you think to destroy SAMs with ballistics missiles? They do not have enough accuracy for something like that, SAM batteries are mobile systems and not enemy airfields... So you would cause severe casualties to civilian population, spend hundred millions of dollars worth BM and turn public opinion in enemy’s favor without cousing any damage to its air defenses…

Well if it was a war against a neighbouring a dozen of conventional arm IRBM or MRBM lauched simultaneously aimed at high value Military targat and Airfield would keep enemy air defence buzy. During this time, it would make it easy to lauch a SEAD style strike with the SU-30 and it KH-31P. The JH-7 and when the J-10 become operational could use KH-31P to support the SEAD mission for a more important attack and make sure enemy airfield redeem useless. The H-6 Bomber can use there KD-63 at standoff range to destory command post.

The SU-27 and J11 would supply Air-defence with the support of these prototype AEW&C system.

If they manage to pull this off, it effeicently gain air superiority. But this only work against some of the smaller state for example Vietnam.

Nethappy said:

Well if it was a war against a neighbouring a dozen of conventional arm IRBM or MRBM lauched simultaneously aimed at high value Military targat and Airfield would keep enemy air defence buzy. During this time, it would make it easy to lauch a SEAD style strike with the SU-30 and it KH-31P. The JH-7 and when the J-10 become operational could use KH-31P to support the SEAD mission for a more important attack and make sure enemy airfield redeem useless. The H-6 Bomber can use there KD-63 at standoff range to destory command post.

The SU-27 and J11 would supply Air-defence with the support of these prototype AEW&C system.

If they manage to pull this off, it effeicently gain air superiority. But this only work against some of the smaller state for example Vietnam.

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Has nobody learnt any lessons ? First examine what you want to achieve, then your methods and finally whether it is achievable.

Any military option without a political involvement will be worse than useless besides drawing in opposition from other parties.

Guerilla wars are by their nature politically intensive. A short, sharp war will soon drag into years and the economic and political costs start to escalate way beyond initial expectations.

Nethappy said:

Well if it was a war against a neighbouring a dozen of conventional arm IRBM or MRBM lauched simultaneously aimed at high value Military targat and Airfield would keep enemy air defence buzy. During this time, it would make it easy to lauch a SEAD style strike with the SU-30 and it KH-31P. The JH-7 and when the J-10 become operational could use KH-31P to support the SEAD mission for a more important attack and make sure enemy airfield redeem useless. The H-6 Bomber can use there KD-63 at standoff range to destory command post.

The SU-27 and J11 would supply Air-defence with the support of these prototype AEW&C system.

If they manage to pull this off, it effeicently gain air superiority. But this only work against some of the smaller state for example Vietnam.

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Not exactly... Majority of small countries like Vietnam does not have any missile defenses. Knowing that they can not do a damn thing about BM they would just scatter their military forces and divert all assets for facing treats they can do something about…
So with launching BMs you would just alert there air defenses and lose element of surprise.
There is only two ways to deal with air defenses, first is American with stealth planes in the first wave and second is Israeli with fighters doing SEAD missions. For PLAAF first way is not the option since it does not have stealth fighters and Israeli way requires element of surprise(wich you lost after attack with BM)… And decent EW and jamming capabilities, one other thing PLAAF lacks…
Also I’m curious what kind of SAR capabilities PLAAF have and what kind of SEAD capabilities they poses other then Su-30/KH-31P combo?

China will get aerial refuelling capability once those Il-78 tankers arrive - and if it gets enough inlfunece around the opposing country then it may be able to establish air bases there. China could destroy SAM and radar sites with GPS guided DF-15 missiles, but they are not very useful for the job. The PLAAF could destroy Radar sites and disrupt the enemy air defence control system using Kh-31 ARMs. And H-6s armed with KD-63s could fire their missiles outside enemy air defence. The enemy radar is likely to be outdated, as it is a poorer country, so the J-10s and Su-30s could do what the Coalition air force did when it was bombing Iraqi airfields in Desert Storm - fly low-level attack missions to advoid enemy radar, which only covered medium to hig altitude. If they get Tu-22s they could carry out even heavier bombing. And once they get their carriers they could also be useful. (This is likely to be 5 or 6 years from now)

BM they would just scatter their military forces and divert all assets for facing treats they can do something about…
So with launching BMs you would just alert there air defenses and lose element of surprise.

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But if the launching of BMs and the SEAD operation simultaneously with these aircraft flying in at low-level might just create an element of suprise as the BM would mostly likely grab all the attention of the radar operator all the way up the Command and these BMs should mostly be aimed at Airforce Base. As you should know many of these nation are not as professional as the western world.

But the likelihood of any war happen in the near future are very slim.

I think we're pretty sure then that ballisitc missiles will not be used in a precsion strike. So maybe there will not be a Chinese equivalent to operation Allied Force or Desert Storm. But what about a single, strategic precison strike against a threat to China's interests?
Lets say Taiwan decides to build nuclear weapons as a deterrent to a Chinese invasion. China protests to the U.N., and identifies the main Taiwanese nuclear sites - including an enrichment facility and a nuclear reactor under construction. A Chinese equivalent to the Iran crisis, if you will (this doesn't have to be likely or true, but I am using this as a typical scenario to try to determine China's capabilities). So eventually China decides to launch a precision air strike against the reactor and enrichment facility. There are two options that the PLAAF could use:

1) H-6s armed with KD-63s approach the Taiwanese coast. The they fire their missiles and fly back to base. The KD-63s are GPS guided and can destroy the reactor and enrichment plant, without putting any aircraft at risk to enemy air defence. Of course, the H-6s would be sent with fighter escort in case they were detected.

2) The PLAAF decides to use Israeli tactics and sends smaller fighter-bombers on an Osirak-style low-level air strike. They will probably be Su-30s escorted by J-10s or Su-27s/J-11s, lauched from mainland airbases or even an a Chinese aircraft carrier (this will probably be 4 or 5 years in the future - so Varyag will have been commisioned by then) The weapons used may be laser/TV guided bombs such as the KAB-1500/500 or guided missiles such as the Kh-29. Whatever the weapon, it would have to be a precise and carefully planned strike, and would probably be done without adavnce warning to gain the element of surprise. But sending aircraft against advanced Taiwanese air defences could be risky, and some aircraft would be lost.

Personally I think a KD-63 attack would be the best option for a precision strike like this. It would not require much planning, would be easier to carry out, and no aircraft would be at risk and wouldnot require a lot of resources. However if anyone has any other ideas or opinions, please post it here.